WI - Plague of Justinian affected Arabia and Horn of Africa

[Masked Grizzly]

Not sure if it was already the case in OTL, yet what if the Plague of Justinian managed to affect most if not all of Arabia as well as the Horn of Africa?

Aside from negatively impacting OTL population growth of the Arabs, what other knock-on effects on would this ATL Plague of Justinian likely have?

 

[ar-pharazon]

It would devastate the coastal trading settlements and any areas in the interior.

I don't think nomadic populations would be as badly affected.

 

[JErosion]

It might butterfly away Islam and if it doesn't it will give the Empire time to recover from the loss of life, leaving them more prepared to hold North Africa and the near east.

 

[Masked Grizzly]

Indeed it is likely the nomadic populations would not be as badly affected, would it be safe to say the pre-Islamic Arab demographic expansion into the Levant and Mesopotamia would be butterflied away or not have as large an impact compared to OTL?

 

[IamtheEmps]

One unlikely, Arabia didnt have the population for a plague, two probably kill Islam.

 

[JErosion]

One unlikely, Arabia didnt have the population for a plague, two probably kill Islam.

we have converted to a new religion and then have been struck down by a plague... lets walk it back to our old gods

 

[Fabius Maximus]

we have converted to a new religion and then have been struck down by a plague... lets walk it back to our old gods

The Plague of Justinian was pre-Muhammad. In fact, it might even stimulate a religious change in the peninsula, as people turn away from the old gods who are apparently unable to protect them.

 

[IamtheEmps]

The Plague of Justinian was pre-Muhammad. In fact, it might even stimulate a religious change in the peninsula, as people turn away from the old gods who are apparently unable to protect them.

The reason it would kill Islam, is that the population pressures that caused the Islamic conquests wouldn't be there, and so in the long run it would fail.

 

[Masked Grizzly]

How would the Aksumite Empire be impacted?

 

[Masked Grizzly]

Especially if Aksum still ends up invading Himyar?

 

[Pempelune]

The reason it would kill Islam, is that the population pressures that caused the Islamic conquests wouldn't be there, and so in the long run it would fail.

Plague are much less devastating among nomadic populations, since there are less contacts between groups
Now Arabia also had a urbanized population, but it would still be relatively less affected by the plague than the empires. Actually it's pretty likely the reason Arabia wasn't really affected by the plague IOTL.

 

[CountDVB]

Plague are much less devastating among nomadic populations, since there are less contacts between groups
Now Arabia also had a urbanized population, but it would still be relatively less affected by the plague than the empires. Actually it's pretty likely the reason Arabia wasn't really affected by the plague IOTL.

Then again, Arabia did have some important trade routes and if Mecca and Medina were to fall, it would change things dramatically in regards in who would hold the power in the area.

If Axum avoided the Plague, they could use the vacuum to try and spread further norther into Yemen. Alternately, maybe some Jewish communities could consolidate and strength their hold

 

[Escape Zeppelin]

The plague almost certainly did affect Arabia and the Horn of Africa. Regarding the plague, Procopius comments that "When pestilence swept through the whole known world and notably the Roman Empire..." Arabia and the north-east coast of Africa were definitely part of the known world and had an extensive Roman trading presence. We just don't have many records from those areas.

It's theorized that the Red Sea was actually the route that the plague took. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20405770