WI: Oregon declares Independence?

SinghKing

Banned
Here's one which I've been thinking about: WI the early Champoeg Meetings (specifically, those in early 1842 in Oregon City, at the Oregon Lyceum), had gone differently? At these meetings, the pioneers of the Oregon Country debated the aspects of either forming a regional government or forming an independent country. Those favoring an independent nation were led by Lansford Hastings, then employed by Dr. McLoughlin, while George Abernethy led those opposed to a new country. The proposal for full independence won support at first, and a resolution was adopted, but ultimately, those favoring waiting for the United States to take ownership of the region won out in the debates. At least, they did IOTL.

But WI Lansford Hastings had won out in the debate instead, and the proposed Republic of Oregon had elected to issue its declaration of independence (say, in May 1843, predating the outbreak of the Mexican-American War, and probably butterflying away the Oregon Treaty)? Reportedly, both the British and the US of Americans were open to the possibility of the Oregon Country becoming an independent nation at this time- joint control was steadily growing less tolerable for both sides, and they were seemingly at a diplomatic impasse (prior to the outbreak of the Mexican-American War), with no appetite on either side to declare war in order to annex the region for themselves.

Could the Republic of Oregon (Oregon Country + Lower British Columbia) potentially survive, in the short term? Or even to the present day? And could the RoO potentially even thrive, expanding its population, power and territories still further, beyond those held at its formation? Making the Alaska Purchase certainly seems like a realistic ambition ITTL, and even annexing or forming a federal union with the Republic of California upon its emergence (the area which was actually militarily controlled by it IOTL, to the north of the San Francisco Bay in the present-day state of California) seems like a outside possibility- one which would see the Republic of Oregon (or 'Pacific Confederation') reaping the full rewards of the impending California Gold Rush all for themselves, and benefiting fully from the ensuing population explosion?
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Given Hastings' abilities, he'd mean to declare independence and

Here's one which I've been thinking about: WI the early Champoeg Meetings (specifically, those in early 1842 in Oregon City, at the Oregon Lyceum), had gone differently? At these meetings, the pioneers of the Oregon Country debated the aspects of either forming a regional government or forming an independent country. Those favoring an independent nation were led by Lansford Hastings, then employed by Dr. McLoughlin, while George Abernethy led those opposed to a new country. The proposal for full independence won support at first, and a resolution was adopted, but ultimately, those favoring waiting for the United States to take ownership of the region won out in the debates. At least, they did IOTL.

Given Hastings' abilities, he'd mean to declare independence and end up demanding annexation, instead...;)

Never take no cutoffs and hurry along as fast as you can.

Best,
 

SinghKing

Banned
Without the Mexican-American War, Oregon is America's only way to reach the Pacific. No way are they giving that up.

Of course. But that could easily manifest in an earlier Mexican-American War with even harsher terms for the Mexicans. Or simply in the USA placing their offer to purchase the regions of Alta California and Nueva Mexico from the Mexicans on the table earlier. The Republic of Oregon would be a friendly neighbouring nation, populated by a substantial population of White Americans, and a useful potential buffer state and puppet state between them and the British on the Pacific Coast- why would the Americans want to invade? More likely, they'd want to secure a treaty of annexation in the same way that they did with the Republic of Texas IOTL. Except that the popular support for annexation wouldn't be nearly as strong in Oregon as it was in Texas, and that they'd be openly inviting conflict with the British by doing so, instead of the feeble Mexicans. Would it really be worth the risk and the cost for the USA to seize it by force?
 
Of course. But that could easily manifest in an earlier Mexican-American War with even harsher terms for the Mexicans. Or simply in the USA placing their offer to purchase the regions of Alta California and Nueva Mexico from the Mexicans on the table earlier. The Republic of Oregon would be a friendly neighbouring nation, populated by a substantial population of White Americans, and a useful potential buffer state and puppet state between them and the British on the Pacific Coast- why would the Americans want to invade? More likely, they'd want to secure a treaty of annexation in the same way that they did with the Republic of Texas IOTL. Except that the popular support for annexation wouldn't be nearly as strong in Oregon as it was in Texas, and that they'd be openly inviting conflict with the British by doing so, instead of the feeble Mexicans. Would it really be worth the risk and the cost for the USA to seize it by force?

Good point. If the US already has California, there's not much of an advantage in annexing Oregon, and it's not as though the people of Oregon would really pose a threat to the US either.
 

SinghKing

Banned
Hmm an interesting idea. Anyone have a (rough) map of the various boundaries this republic would/could end up with?

Well, here's a map of the territory which it would claim upon its declaration of independence;

w42.jpg


The boundaries which the republic could potentially be capable of ending up with, on the other hand, are anyone's guess. Though I'd be inclined to go for Northern California (north of the California trail, via political union with the Bear Flag Republic), Alaska and maybe Hawaii as the most plausible additions. And the real possibility of being reduced to nothing, through its eventual annexation or federal union with either the USA or Canada. It'll be a very thin and unsteady diplomatic tightrope to walk, until/unless they become capable of deterring threats through their own military power- and they'll probably have to manage the balancing act for the next century or so. If they manage to make it through though (especially if the US Civil War still happens ITTL), they should do well enough.
 
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