Odoacer was a Germanic born warlord from the 5th century most commonly known for legally felling the Western Roman Empire in 476 by deposing the last Western Emperor, Romulus Augustulus and taking over political control of Italy. Despite the fickle legality and legacy of such deed, Odoacer was a popular ruler; he was kind to his Nicene Christian subjects despite being personally Arianist, he allowed continuity with old Roman practices by maintaining Latin as the official language of his state, and even restored the Roman Senate to a prestigious position it had arguably never held since Octavian.
But he would soon meet his undoing. The Eastern Roman Emperor, Zeno, sensed an opportunity to get rid of Eastern Gothic raids on his Balkan possessions by encouraging or bribing the Ostrogothic King, Theodoric of Amal, to move from his base in Pannonia and attack Odoacer's Italian holdings from there. Theodoric accepted and the Ostrogoths invaded the Po valley. But their performance in the following engagements against their enemies was rather mediocre; definitive victory only slipped into their hands once Odoacer was assassinated in a brawl during a celebratory banquet after a tentative peace treaty dividing the kingdom between the two. With no clear successor to Odoacer's position, Italy fell prey to Theodoric, who managed to establish a base for his desired Gothic Empire.
But what if Odoacer had prevailed over Theodoric around the early 490's? Assume he thoroughly defeats the Ostrogoths, reducing the latter to mostly a historical footnote.
How would Italy develop politically and culturally from there on in? How smoothly would relations with Constantinople likely go?
Would Germanic-ruled but Roman-dominated Italy seek territorial acquisitions (such as North Africa) or would its elites be content with ruling Italy alone?
Any other ideas?
 
I expect we see Odoacer's goths assimilate and the Senate eventually raises one of the kings as Emperor-in-the-West.
How effective that will be I can't comment without more discourse on future events.
 

jocay

Banned
Odoacer defeating or outmaneuvering Theodoric the Great would allow him to absorb the remaining Ostrogoths into his Italo-German army and resettle them in his Italian kingdom. Pannonia, where Theodoric was ruling over, would be re-incorporated into his domain which would solidify his already immense popularityy over both the army and the Roman people. Relations with Constantinople would be frosty given that Zeno was the person behind the invasion but time would allow for healing. Odoacer as far as I am aware had no interest in keeping the German and Roman elements under their separate laws and customs; the Germanic peoples in Italy would assimilate into the Roman population. Odoacer would likely do much of what Theodoric spent all his life doing: rebuilding Roman cities and preserving ancient monuments as a means of legitimizing himself to his subjects.

The key question is what happens when Odoacer dies. There is almost certainly going to be a power struggle between Odoacer's sons Thela and Thassilo, his brother Onoulphus and his second-in-command Tufa. The Roman Senate might even nominate their own candidate to become King of Italy. Or another barbarian kingdom might swoop in. Or assuming if Romulus is still alive, he might usurp power.
 
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The Roman Senate might even nominate their own candidate to become King of Italy.
If they're gonna do that, why wouldn't they then just proclaim a new Western Augutustus? The Imperial office stemmed from the Senate and People of Rome (SPQR: Senatus Populesque Romanus).

Or assuming if Romulus is still alive, he might usurp power.
Actually Julius Nepos was considered to be the legitimate Western Emperor by Constantinople, and if he lives Zeno or his successors might push for him or another Candidate to become Western Emperor.

I expect we see Odoacer's goths assimilate and the Senate eventually raises one of the kings as Emperor-in-the-West.
How effective that will be I can't comment without more discourse on future events.
Well Italy under Odoacer began a recovery. This made him popular. A revived Western Empire based in Italy might work though they would need to make defeating the Vandals a priority.
 
My thinking is that if Odoacer somehow manages to repel and or kill Theodoric, then Gundobad will swoop in and conquer Italy for himself as he was already raiding the northwestern portion of Italia at this time in OTL.

So how will this affect the relations with the Papalcy the franks and Eastern Romans in comparison to OTL?
 
Arguments over how much to Romanize (or Sinicize in the East Asian case) were a pretty common feature in not just the Germanic successor regimes to the Western Roman Empire, but the Turkish successor regimes to the Jin dynasty in northern China. The regime of Odoacer had no clear tribal foundation nor clear successor. The implication is that it wasn't going to last long. Also, though Justinian's invasion of Italy is much criticized, there was a strategic logic behind it because a powerful state based in Italy was a threat to Constantinople, which actually happened once the Byzantines lost their last bases in Italy. So I suspect that the sixth century in Italy doesn't actually unfold all that differently, though the fates of individuals such as Boethius might change quite a bit.
 
Arguments over how much to Romanize (or Sinicize in the East Asian case) were a pretty common feature in not just the Germanic successor regimes to the Western Roman Empire, but the Turkish successor regimes to the Jin dynasty in northern China. The regime of Odoacer had no clear tribal foundation nor clear successor. The implication is that it wasn't going to last long. Also, though Justinian's invasion of Italy is much criticized, there was a strategic logic behind it because a powerful state based in Italy was a threat to Constantinople, which actually happened once the Byzantines lost their last bases in Italy. So I suspect that the sixth century in Italy doesn't actually unfold all that differently, though the fates of individuals such as Boethius might change quite a bit.
I have to disagree because the Ostrogoths will still retain control of Illyria, which could mean Justinian focus his war effort there after the otl Vandal war. While this delays the Italian campaign, Justinian will have the benefit of an already pacified Ostrogoth going in
Also who is Boethius
 
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