WI: Octavian Killed at First Philippi, Cassius Survives

[Gosing]

For those who don't know, the Battle of Philippi was the grand finale of the Roman civil war immeadiately following Julius Casar's death, where the forces loyal to the conspirators (headed by Cassius and Brutus) were finished by forces loyal to Caesar, led by a then-still-allied Mark Antony and Octavian.

The first engagement of the battle-the one on October 3rd-was pretty much a draw, despite the fact that at one point Brutus' legions were quite close to overcoming Octavian's forces; but Mark Antony beat Cassius, and Cassius paniced and comitted suicide (he thought Brutus had been defeated as well).

The PoD is twofold: first, Octavian is killed while his legions are retreating (by an unknown soldier, though certainly legend will have it that Brutus did it himself), and second, Cassius doesn't panic quite so badly and doesn't commit suicide.

There are two scenarios here, both interesting. First, Brutus and Cassius could defeat Antony's forces, resulting either in a drawn-out civil war or a quick victory for the conspirators. Second, Antony could rally and win a decisive victory, which would leave him the most powerful man in Rome-but perhaos not quite strong enough to rule uncontestedly.

What do you guys think?

 

[Gosing]

No interest?

 

[Fiver]

Regardless of what happens Lepidus is still around. So is Sextus Pompey. The wars are not over yet.

 

[LSCatilina]

Regardless of what happens Lepidus is still around. So is Sextus Pompey. The wars are not over yet.

That said, they were more or less not in strong position. Lepidus was more a follower than a leader, and Sextus Pompeius had a limited support.

 

[Magnum]

if the liberators defeat and kill Octavian, I give them a 90% chance of winning the battle. Their morale will skyrocket and they will gain lots of loot. This leads to less impatience and fewer desertions amongst their men, critically the mercenaries. This (and Cassius' survival) then leads to Brutus not being forced to attack when he did. This leads to the news of Admiral Ahenobarbus' victory over the triumvir fleet vest of Greece reaching the liberators and the realization on their part that Marc Anthony is for all intents and purposes trapped and running out of supplies. This enables them to keep their army in check, while this time its Anthony's men that begin deserting.

You thus end up with a situation that corresponds perfectly to Brutus' and Cassius' original battle plan, of having a starved enemy charge their fortified positions. while stranger things have happened, I doubt Anthony will be able to snatch a victory in these conditions. Moreover, he wont be able to retreat his army to Italy directly, but instead have to use the long route up the Adriatic coast on foot due to the triumvir fleet being defeated. Brutus and Cassius thus have a very good shot at reaching Italy before him, or trapping and destroying him altogether.

Lepidus might try and fight, but he's not really a leader and doesn't have many troops anyway, since Octavian and Marc Anthony took most of them to Greece. What he might do is possibly hand over the keys to Rome in exchange for some sort of position in the future government, or at least semi-retirement like was forced upon him by Octavian OTL.

Sextus Pompeius controls Sicily and a considerable fleet at this point, and might try and take Rome, but its a long shot given everyone will want to ingratiate themselves with the victors in the east. Most likely a political settlement will be reached between him and the Liberators, possibly setting the stage for another round of civil wars several years down the line.

If he does try and fight, he simply can't match the resources Brutus and Cassius have at their disposal. Any war between him and them will probably be very similar to the one he fought against Octavian and Marc Anthony, with the same forgone conclusion

 

[Gosing]

if the liberators defeat and kill Octavian, I give them a 90% chance of winning the battle. Their morale will skyrocket and they will gain lots of loot. This leads to less impatience and fewer desertions amongst their men, critically the mercenaries. This (and Cassius' survival) then leads to Brutus not being forced to attack when he did. This leads to the news of Admiral Ahenobarbus' victory over the triumvir fleet vest of Greece reaching the liberators and the realization on their part that Marc Anthony is for all intents and purposes trapped and running out of supplies. This enables them to keep their army in check, while this time its Anthony's men that begin deserting.

You thus end up with a situation that corresponds perfectly to Brutus' and Cassius' original battle plan, of having a starved enemy charge their fortified positions. while stranger things have happened, I doubt Anthony will be able to snatch a victory in these conditions. Moreover, he wont be able to retreat his army to Italy directly, but instead have to use the long route up the Adriatic coast on foot due to the triumvir fleet being defeated. Brutus and Cassius thus have a very good shot at reaching Italy before him, or trapping and destroying him altogether.

Lepidus might try and fight, but he's not really a leader and doesn't have many troops anyway, since Octavian and Marc Anthony took most of them to Greece. What he might do is possibly hand over the keys to Rome in exchange for some sort of position in the future government, or at least semi-retirement like was forced upon him by Octavian OTL.

Sextus Pompeius controls Sicily and a considerable fleet at this point, and might try and take Rome, but its a long shot given everyone will want to ingratiate themselves with the victors in the east. Most likely a political settlement will be reached between him and the Liberators, possibly setting the stage for another round of civil wars several years down the line.

If he does try and fight, he simply can't match the resources Brutus and Cassius have at their disposal. Any war between him and them will probably be very similar to the one he fought against Octavian and Marc Anthony, with the same forgone conclusion

Okay, so Antony's in it pretty deep. Let's say that Cassius and Brutus manage to win a decisive victory that pretty much annihilates Antony's remaining forces. Lepidus cuts a deal with the Liberatores and flees for his life; Italy is temporarily plunged into chaos, but the Liberatores manage to stabilize it and, eventually, the Empire.

What kind of state do you think they would set up? The old system of the Republic has pretty much failed, and anyway I don't thnk anybody would want to go back to the old ways. I would imagine Brutus would push for a reformed version of the old system, while Cassius and some of the other conspirators would push for a more autocratic system, with themselves as rulers. Do you think some kind of stability could be achieved, or will Rome be in for another round of civil wars within a few decades? And (*possible TL way down the road*) is it possible that there might be a collapse of Roman power if stability isn't achieved soon?