WI Nootka Sound incident sparks British/Spanish war

[Gryphon]

Nootka Sound, of Maple Leaf Forever fame (cue the sound of a thousand sarcasm detectors exploding) was a hotbed of geopolitical activity for about twenty years. And then it stopped.

While it was interesting, Nootka Sound was a trading area. Two such areas, actually, one British, and one Spanish. However, in something that must have resembled some badly-written romantic comedy, British ships left the sound just before Spaniards entered, and vice-versa- until 1788, when John Meares (an entrepreneur and an utter arse) stayed in one place just a little too long and a bunch of Spanish ships kicked his British buttocks to Beijing (well, to Shanghai, but who's really counting?). This sparked a very heavy international incident. Britain didn't want to lose face, so they demanded that the Spanish apologise and pay the British for damages and lost income. John Meares called for war.

In OTL, a meeting between Captain Juan Francisco de la Bodega y Quadra (who was later killed for having a name too long to put on a sports jersey [citation needed]) and Captain George Vancouver in 1792 led to the Spanish vacating the area, and nothing really came of it.

Let's suppose, for the purposes of our What If, that John Meares' call for war (which was echoed by many other Brits) actually went through, and those two worldwide empires began slugging it out around 1789. What would happen?

 

[Coyote Knight]

Assuming the Brits win? British Oregon Territory and British Mexico. Which means hopefully a century later Canada gets some sunbelt.

 

[Workable Goblin]

Assuming the Brits win? British Oregon Territory and British Mexico. Which means hopefully a century later Canada gets some sunbelt.

Yeah, Spain is going to lose. They were preeminent 200 years earlier--their time in the sun has passed, they're weak and racked with corruption. It might trigger earlier revolts against Spanish rule in the Americas, which Britain will probably support. The UK might annex thinly-populated Spanish North America, but will probably leave Mexico and points south 'alone' after helping them win independence...well, as alone as they were OTL (not much).

 

[Thande]

Would Spain be in it alone, though? Wouldn't France honour the Bourbon Family Compact?

(I know they were nearing bankruptcy at the time, but conversely Louis XVI might decide a war against the Evil Protestant Rosbifs is just what he needs to unite the people and make them forget about all this revolutionary business).

 

[Tyr]

Britain would win, I don't think anyone support Spain, however gains would be minor. Britain isn't going to be conquering Spanish North America. It has no interest.
Gains would perhaps be a few ports about the place and lots of trading rights.

 

[Michael B]

Would Spain be in it alone, though? Wouldn't France honour the Bourbon Family Compact?

(I know they were nearing bankruptcy at the time, but conversely Louis XVI might decide a war against the Evil Protestant Rosbifs is just what he needs to unite the people and make them forget about all this revolutionary business).

Louis XVI probably would invoke the Bourbon Family Compact. To do so would be to look weak and so encourage unrest. It is worth noting that Britain had lost a week about ten years before so it would be a good time to strike just as long as those useless politicians get their act in gear andf fund it.

 

[jkay]

not so easy for the British

I've got my doubts if Britain would've won, because, for once and almost only, Spain had ept people on the scene. After 1789, Spain had one of their few good viceroys of New Spain ever.

And, it took long years for ships to get there from the British Caribbean fleet via one the antartic passages. The Viceroy of New Spain was alot closer, having bases and ships on the American Pacific coast. Britain, in theory, could've sent a bigger and better fleet, but they would've had to accept the vanishment of such a big fleet from the scene for years; and possibly even permanently, as the Horn and Cape were hardly what you'd call safe. They'd have fewer ideas where to get supplies, and gotten many of them only at gunpoint. Said fleet would've been gone, most likely, when the first Napeonic War broke out. That kind of thing's why wou saw limited force being deployed so far out, nine times out of ten, except where there were established bases and colonies.

The British could've struck at European Spain to get it by treaty, except it's a little unclear if the allies could've gathered enough land forces in place to matter before fear of events in France would've caused them to give it up.

The Spanish probably would've been alone; OTL, the war didn't break out because France had chosen not to help; in 1789, after all, they were a little busy with a certain revolution thing breaking out; the Spanish decided to concede their monopoly trading status instead.

 

[Thande]

I wonder if the Russians would get involved; they had interests around the region, too. Maybe side with Britain in exchange for some minor territorial concessions or open fur trade, given how Russia's main territorial dispute in the area was with Spain.

 

[Michael B]

And, it took long years for ships to get there from the British Caribbean fleet via one the antartic passages. The Viceroy of New Spain was alot closer, having bases and ships on the American Pacific coast.

And could easily bring in extra manpower by landing it on one coast and marching it to the other.

The British could've struck at European Spain to get it by treaty, except it's a little unclear if the allies could've gathered enough land forces in place to matter before fear of events in France would've caused them to give it up.

They could also hit Caribbean islands as well as go after treasure fleets. Nootka Sound might not be defendable, but it could make a good causus belli for a profitable war.

The Spanish probably would've been alone; OTL, the war didn't break out because France had chosen not to help; in 1789, after all, they were a little busy with a certain revolution thing breaking out; the Spanish decided to concede their monopoly trading status instead.

If the French resolved some of their internal difficulties with a whiff of grape shot plus decided that a foreign war was a good way of diverting the sans culottes then they would be in. They would have a job payrolling it though; their finances were in a mess. Still if Louis XVI got a bit more backbone they would be in.

I wonder if the Russians would get involved; they had interests around the region, too. Maybe side with Britain in exchange for some minor territorial concessions or open fur trade, given how Russia's main territorial dispute in the area was with Spain.

Yes, the Russians did have an interest in the region. However, my reading is that they were far to the north. It was the Spanish fear that they had come further south was the reason that they sent the expedition that discovered the British colony.

Given their location in Alaska and that neither Britain nor Spain will offer them anything it is unlikely that they will get involved. If they did, it would be to enlargen Alaska to say include the Yukon. The British though would not want them too far south because then then could syphon off some of the fur trade.

 

[CalBear]

...

Let's suppose, for the purposes of our What If, that John Meares' call for war (which was echoed by many other Brits) actually went through, and those two worldwide empires began slugging it out around 1789. What would happen?

Hadn't the British & Spanish just ended a war?

The Spanish were allied with the French and American colonies. That little dust-up ended with one of the Treaties of Versailles in 1783. It could be argued that the Spanish came off very nicely in the Treaty, better, in many ways, than the French and at a far lower butcher's bill.

 

[DuQuense]

So whe have Britian v Spain/France in 1789.

?Wonder how this will affect Philadelphia, and the Convention? Things will be a little more Scary outside the Colonies.

Most wars of this period seem to last 5~7 years, So this would be ongoing when John Jay arrives in London to negotiate the Ohio/NW Territory disputes.
?Would this Britain be more accommodating?

France was the Historical Villain for The Colonies. And whe were upset over France's preventing Us from getting all of British America in 1783.
Whe were also unhappy with Spain kicking out the American Settlers in Florida.
?Could this Britain maneuver us into a Anti France/Spanish Alliance?

Or
If this Britain attacks and takes Louisiana in the early 1790's, ?Could TTL's war of 1812 be a Southern War?. With New England/Canada having a unofficial peace.

 

[rcduggan]

I think by 1788 it was beyond France's capability to support Spain militarily - the nation's bureaucracy and financial systems were crippled and revolution was looming. Also, the 1787 Dutch crisis had left France basically diplomatically isolated, aside from the Bourbon Family Compact.

So the Nootka Crisis could prove to be a diplomatic godsend for France. If the foreign minister the Comte de Montmorin had managed to position France as arbiter between Spain, Britain, and Russia, he could have recovered some of his nation's lost prestige while at the same time influencing the Nookta Convention more in favor of his ally, Spain.