WI: non-Orange Bookers bolt?

[lord caedus]

What would happen if non-market liberal Lib. Dem. MPs bolted to Labour after the 2010 election? Who would be left on the Lib. Dem. benches? And would Cameron get his Lib-Con coalition?

 

[RandomChance]

Hung parliament more likely, with Labour and Tory grandees cracking open the champagne, celebrating the dismemberment of the LibDem annoyance...

 

[GrayAnderson]

What would happen if non-market liberal Lib. Dem. MPs bolted to Labour after the 2010 election? Who would be left on the Lib. Dem. benches? And would Cameron get his Lib-Con coalition?

The 2015 Election happens five years early.*


*Well, at least if polls are any indication, this is what the next election is looking like. The LibDems are chronically at 10% now, though the Tories and Labour are generally in a dead heat.

 

[stodge]

Fact...

Far be it from me to let the facts get in the way of a good rant but the recent ICM poll had the LDs at 16% and ComRes at 14% - the YouGov polls have as much credibility as the average successful Sealion TL.

Back to the question, which is slightly ASB to be honest but we'll give it a try. A more reasonable scenario would have been IF the proposed deal with the Conservatives had been rejected by the special meeting of MPs, peers and senior party members.

I suspect Cameron would simply have sighed and formed a minority administration. Clegg might have decided to resign and trigger a leadership election which might have been won by Chris Huhne or (more likely) Tim Farron.

 

[El Pip]

Back to the question, which is slightly ASB to be honest but we'll give it a try. A more reasonable scenario would have been IF the proposed deal with the Conservatives had been rejected by the special meeting of MPs, peers and senior party members.

I suspect Cameron would simply have sighed and formed a minority administration. Clegg might have decided to resign and trigger a leadership election which might have been won by Chris Huhne or (more likely) Tim Farron.

Doesn't this lead to long term Lib Dem problems though? Such a move is tantamount to saying 'We're only ever going to be in coalition with Labour', at which point why not just vote Labour in the first place?

And what about the impact on public perception? The Lib Dems are not going to win an absolute majority so need coalition politics to work, otherwise what is the point? Unless they can portray the Conservative offer as utterly unreasonable it's going to confirm a lot of prejudices about coalition politics and tyranny of the minority, which again is not good for their future electoral prospects.

 

[lord caedus]

I'm curious especially about how many do you think would go over to Labour and how many would stay. Anyone have any guess or list of which MPs are Orange Bookers and which ones aren't?

 

[Arachnid]

What causes this?

Going into Coalition with the Tories caused the most left-wing, beards and sandals element to bolt in OTL but they had always been a small share of the party and in OTL most Lib Dem voters remain with the party despite going into Coalition. So what result could force everyone but the Orange Bookers to leave the party, after all they are at most 35%-40% of the Parliamentary Party and roughly that proportion of the Membership. I mean you could end up with a Lib Dem Party consisting of just the Orange Bookers but it would require several years.

2010- Lib Dems go into Coalition with the Tories after hung Parliament, slightly better than OTL Tory result means Cameron is a bit less accommodating, say no Lords Reform and less ministers. This causes a slightly bigger portion of the Lib Dem left to bolt.

2012- Discontent with certain right wing policies, including the blocking of gay marriage by Tory Backbenchers plus attractive appeals from David Miliband to switch means increasing numbers of "Beveridge Group", social liberals switch from Lib Dem to Labour or even Green. Chris Huhne resigns to the backbenches over a possible speed fine.

2012- Despite poor poll rating fears of being caught between to horses Clegg and the Orange Bookers win the argument about differentiation and instead "hug the Tories close" in an effort to build and maintain an image as a responsible, serious party.

2012-14- Defection of some of the most left wing Lib Dem MP's e.g. Hancock.

2014- Increasing discontent with Clegg's strategy results in Tim Farron, leader of the Lib Dem left since Chris Huhne jailing challenges Clegg for the leadership on a policy of taking the Lib Dems out of Coalition with an eye on the General Election. Due to the continuing economic troubles and the departure of 7 left-wing Lib Dem MP's (Huhne, Hancock and others) plus the changing structure of the membership Farron loses. However he and many of his supporters leave to sit as a new Social Democratic Party.

Only the Orange Bookers are left in the Lib Dems.

 

[The Red]

Far be it from me to let the facts get in the way of a good rant but the recent ICM poll had the LDs at 16% and ComRes at 14% - the YouGov polls have as much credibility as the average successful Sealion TL.

Presuming don't knows will vote for the party they voted for last time isn't exactly representative either. Even presuming those polls are accurate it paints a pretty grim picture for the Lib Dems, back to square one in terms of seats except this time they have no speaky clean image.

 

[GrayAnderson]

Far be it from me to let the facts get in the way of a good rant but the recent ICM poll had the LDs at 16% and ComRes at 14% - the YouGov polls have as much credibility as the average successful Sealion TL.

Back to the question, which is slightly ASB to be honest but we'll give it a try. A more reasonable scenario would have been IF the proposed deal with the Conservatives had been rejected by the special meeting of MPs, peers and senior party members.

I suspect Cameron would simply have sighed and formed a minority administration. Clegg might have decided to resign and trigger a leadership election which might have been won by Chris Huhne or (more likely) Tim Farron.

ICM has them at 16%. Populus has them at 13%. Ipsos-MORI is at 12%, and everyone else clusters between 7% and 11% on a fairly stable basis over the last few months. ICM is a regular "high outlier" for the LibDems, too, and I'm inclined to blame methodology for this.