WI: No Russian Conquest of Central Asia

[GameBawesome]

With a POD from 16th Century to 19th Century, what if Russia (for whatever reason, such as financial troubles, military loses, or Western threats) never conquered and annex these Central Asia, including

• Kazakh Khanate
• Khanate of Khiva
• Khanate of Bukhara/Emirate of Bukhara
• Kokand Khanate
• Turkmen Tribes

How would no Russian conquest of Central Asia, effect the region?
How would this change geopolitics?

 

[Osman Aga]

With a POD from 16th Century to 19th Century, what if Russia (for whatever reason, such as financial troubles, military loses, or Western threats) never conquered and annex these Central Asia, including

• Kazakh Khanate
• Khanate of Khiva
• Khanate of Bukhara/Emirate of Bukhara
• Kokand Khanate
• Turkmen Tribes

How would no Russian conquest of Central Asia, effect the region?
How would this change geopolitics?

Russia would keep at least the Kazakhs as a protectorate. I guess Persia would also have an easier time to subjugate Khiva and maybe Bukhara over time. Todays Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan...

No conquest of Central Asia would prevent communists destroying whatever center of learning for Islam in the region. Though if the holy butterflies do not prevent a communist revolution in Russia.

 

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

With a POD from 16th Century to 19th Century, what if Russia (for whatever reason, such as financial troubles, military loses, or Western threats) never conquered and annex these Central Asia, including

• Kazakh Khanate
• Khanate of Khiva
• Khanate of Bukhara/Emirate of Bukhara
• Kokand Khanate
• Turkmen Tribes

How would no Russian conquest of Central Asia, effect the region?
How would this change geopolitics?

No or less important British Russian hostility or at least a less important Great game ?

 

[Osman Aga]

No or less important British Russian hostility or at least a less important Great game ?

Most likely although Russian attempts to get access to the Mediterranean is still something worrying London. At least, that is what London would think what Russia wants.

 

[Silver01]

Maybe have poland win the ruso polish wars or have sweden win the norther war and russia balkanizes ( but then again some might migrate to central Asia )

 

[twovultures]

Whatifalthist proposed that the best way to stop Russia's advance eastward was to keep the Kazan Khanate around. Which may be earlier than you intended OP, but it's worth thinking about.

 

[profxyz]

The key British worry in the Great Game was Russian influence over Persia, which was seen as the more likely base from which an invasion of India could be launched. So even if Russian expansion in Central Asia was constrained, Russian expansion into the Caucasus would still trigger a British reaction. That's assuming that a weaker Russia would have wanted to take on the burden of conquering the Caucasus, which OTL Russia regarded as far more difficult than Central Asia.

ITL, Persian influence in Central Asia would have been seen as a proxy for whoever was 'in control' of Persia at the moment, and as a result, the British would still promote the separation of Afghanistan from Persia as a strategic buffer.

Another possibility to consider is potential Qing China action in Turkestan during the mid-19C (if not even earlier during the conquest of the Dzunghars), particularly against the Kokand Khanate and the Kyrgyz. These two were identified as a particular source of instability to what is now Xinjiang, and while the Qing in the turbulent 30s-60s preferred to conciliate them with market access and even extra-territoriality (the 1832 agreement with Kokand re: Xinjiang being an early example of an 'unequal treaty'), the more confident Qing of the 1870-80s might well have seen them as a target for military adventurism and prestige. Money and bureaucratic obstruction by the pro-navy Li Hongzhang would have been obstacles, but not insuperable ones.

 

[Monk78]

With a POD from 16th Century to 19th Century, what if Russia (for whatever reason, such as financial troubles, military loses, or Western threats) never conquered and annex these Central Asia, including

• Kazakh Khanate
• Khanate of Khiva
• Khanate of Bukhara/Emirate of Bukhara
• Kokand Khanate
• Turkmen Tribes

How would no Russian conquest of Central Asia, effect the region?
How would this change geopolitics?

Is there a possibility of turkic conquest of Russia 16th century to 18th cntury ?

 

[Silver01]

Is there a possibility of turkic conquest of Russia 16th century to 18th cntury ?

No the tatars and other groups where good for raiding but where pounded for battles later to the 18th century it's a big no no gunpowder is making their tactics more and more irrelevant

 

[Cregan]

Have the Afsharid Empire survive and thrive, resulting in the Afsharids controlling Iran, Afghanistan, Northwest India, Mesopotamia, Eastern Arabia, the Caucasus and Central Asia. This strong Afsharid state will keep the Russians out of Central Asia.

 

[Silver01]

Have the Afsharid Empire survive and thrive, resulting in the Afsharids controlling Iran, Afghanistan, Northwest India, Mesopotamia, Eastern Arabia, the Caucasus and Central Asia. This strong Afsharid state will keep the Russians out of Central Asia.

18th century what prevents late 18th century or even worse yet 19th century russia to beat them up like they did to the ottomans? unless you have the Afsharid empire modernize

 

[Cregan]

18th century what prevents late 18th century or even worse yet 19th century russia to beat them up like they did to the ottomans? unless you have the Afsharid empire modernize

The OP said the POD is from the 16th Century, so yes I mentioned that the Afsharids would survive and thrive, ie modernise and remain strong, from that time to prevent the Russians from beating up on them and taking their territory.

 

[Silver01]

The OP said the POD is from the 16th Century, so yes I mentioned that the Afsharids would survive and thrive, ie modernise and remain strong, from that time to prevent the Russians from beating up on them and taking their territory.

i dont if iam missing something the op said 16th to 19th the Afsharids took control of iran in 1730 and began to decline in the 1740s even if you prevent this with unless you make russia not modernize more or get the sha to modernize a lot to catch up russia i dont see this happening.

 

[Cregan]

i dont if iam missing something the op said 16th to 19th the Afsharids took control of iran in 1730 and began to decline in the 1740s even if you prevent this with unless you make russia not modernize more or get the sha to modernize a lot to catch up russia i dont see this happening.

This TL made a good start on achieving just that, but is sadly unfinished.

 

[Osman Aga]

Is there a possibility of turkic conquest of Russia 16th century to 18th cntury ?

Yes if the PoD is in the 14th century changing the nature of the Golden Horde (Blue Horde and White Horde) and the situation among the Russians. No if the PoD is later.

 

[UnaiB]

@alexmilman

 

[Nyegosh]

Russia would keep at least the Kazakhs as a protectorate. I guess Persia would also have an easier time to subjugate Khiva and maybe Bukhara over time. Todays Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan...

No conquest of Central Asia would prevent communists destroying whatever center of learning for Islam in the region. Though if the holy butterflies do not prevent a communist revolution in Russia.

Averting the revolution in Russia is easier than most people think. They were literally a few months (even weeks!) away from completely turning around their fortunes. Those funny pointy hats the Bolsheviks wore were actually made to celebrate the victory in the war.

 

[alexmilman]

@alexmilman

The Brits would fill the gap (except for Kazakhstan) or at least would try. They tried in OTL and had been vocally unhappy when the Russians (even before they de facto conquest) blocked their attempts to establish influence in Bukhara and Khiva: how nasty of them was to prevent a free trade by a peaceful merchant company (the fact that the peaceful company just conquered India was conveniently omitted 😜). You can find a lot of details in “TheGreat Game”.

So far, as I can see, nobody paid attention to the market value of the region, which was considerable. The main question is how strong would be the British presence/influence taking into an account the existing logistics.

 

[alexmilman]

Maybe have poland win the ruso polish wars or have sweden win the norther war and russia balkanizes ( but then again some might migrate to central Asia )

The PLC won as may wars with the Tsardom as it realistically could and the only result was a temporary (few decades) acquisition of the border territories. The only extra thing the Poles could theoretically achieve was to put the Polish prince to the throne of Tsardom. Time for “Balkanization” gone somewhere between the Mongolian conquest and the 2nd half of the XV century.

Swedes won at least 2 Northern wars and got (as was their purpose) a piece of the marginally-populated Baltic coast. In the GNW the formulated goal of CXII was to return the lands occupied by the Russians during that war and to get a financial compensation for the caused destruction and military expenses. Disintegration of the Tsardom in the XVIII century was unrealistic, especially taking into the account limited resources in Charles’ disposal.

 

[alexmilman]

Yes if the PoD is in the 14th century changing the nature of the Golden Horde (Blue Horde and White Horde) and the situation among the Russians. No if the PoD is later.

I’d say that for this scenario the POD should be somewhere in the late XIII, almost immediately after the conquest: Russian princedoms being truly consolidated within the GH. But the problem is that in this case conquest of the CA (part of which initially was Jochi domain) would be more and not less probable. 😜
Of course, we can also assume a viable GH as a separate state (your idea) but, just by the virtue of a demographic, it may not survive the Russian Eastward expansion.