Thanks for the Eddy reference.
Be my guest.
I've taken to using in some of my timelines a POD in the mid 1700s where there is increased immigration by Scots to the Nova Scotia region, including several Jacobites, and when Carleton comes to Quebec one of them goes there and assassinates him as revenge by proxy on Cumberland (he was his aide-de-camp). The assassin gets away and the assassination is erroneously blamed on the population of Quebec.
Well, this is another possibility. I mostly used the butterfly of Carleton going Patriot because I fancied Canadians getting an OTL well-known figure as their own representative in the Founding Fathers pantheon (although there would also be some unnamed Quebecois figures). Besides, I fancied the idea of Washington, Arnold, and Carleton becoming the military luminaries triumvirate among the Founding Fathers.
Fair enough. I'd think the biggest change that might occur is a requirement for all federal documents to be in both English and French (like the Articles of Confederation and later Constitution, for example).
Quite likely.
And most likely, Spanish would be added later, when the Hispanic states join as well. However, I assume it would be a statute requirement, and would not be written in the Constitution itself.
Actually, I believe the initial impetus was to get the states to stop fighting over their conflicting claims to lands west of the Appalachians. The next idea was to make future states that were of equivalent size (not the currently existing ones, which would have been impossible without fractionating or consolidating states to a frightening degree).
However, given the tidbit that I had missed which is that the land that would have become Upper Canada IOTL was not part of Quebec prior to the Quebec Act, then it would have been treated as part of the Northwest Territory, so same difference.
So very true.
Maybe, though having the choice of where to go in the US may counter that. Take a really close look at population distributions now in Canada and the US, and you can see that the population in Canada is often getting as close to the border as they can without going over it. It's Cold Up There! I think you ought to be looking at OTL Michigan and Ohio as models for your Franklin, and Wisconsin and Minnesota as models for your Ottawa and Winnipeg.
Indeed I do. You see, the settlement pattern of Northern states in my TL continues with "Carleton" (OTL western Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan), "Washington" (OTL BC, OTL Oregon and Washington become "Jefferson", Western states get somewhat consolidated ITTL, in a way similar to the 38-states model, even if Texas is split in 4, and California and Florida in 2, for pre-ACW political reasons) and "Buffalo" (western Saskatchewan and Alberta), but all those states have their upper boundary at the 55° Parallel North (southern boundary of Alaska). And they becomes close copies of their southern neighbors. The other Canadian states that have a border with the territories, such as Quebec, Ottawa, and Winnipeg, get it raised to that level as well. The rest remains a territory for a long, long time.
The only other main divergence is that eastern Quebec (east of Maine) becomes its own separate state (East Quebec). Acadia remains a part of Nova Scotia up to the ACW, then splits away (altough if I ever were to write a revision, I'd make it happen at the same time as Maine).
The main effect of ITTL improved colonization of the West on this is that "Canadian" states get settled and achieve statehood at much the same pace as their southern neighbors.
True. Then again, if this timeline has a version of the War of 1812, it is entirely possible that that rump gets taken in part or whole.
Very true. And indeed, in my TL, there is an equivalent of this war, and in its aftermath, BNA is shrunken down to NFL, Vancouver Island, and a temporary codominium of the Pacific Northwest.
You are correct, of course. Then again, some of the loyalists will be frontiersmen willing, even eager, to carve out new homesteads in the wilderness. But that will be a handful at best, so you are right. BTW, that's why this was one of the ways I get Loyalists to the Cape in my
Yet ANOTHER Draka alternate! timeline.
Yup. However, you see, wherever the dastardly UEL settle in my TL, it shall not avail them much in the very long term. ITTL America's destiny is to gradually swallow all British Dominions and the Americas and grow to resemble 1984's Oceania (minus the British Isles and India). Ever-stronger America keeps a strategic rivalry with Britain, which ensures that the once-proud British Empire is doomed to face its eventual Gotterdammerung at US hands (with a little help from the Euro allies, of course).
Combination, spread them out.
OK. Fine ITTL. However in my TL, they would have scarcely the time to unpack, before they have to move again, since the 2nd Anglo-American War is looming.
How did you get him to agree to a third term?
A butterfly from the Quasi-War becoming a declared full-fledged Franco-American war, which convinces George that as a former military commander, he is most fit to be a (post-)war president and he yet cannot abandon the helm.
Exactly. However, ITTL the young Republic is more self-confident and proud, so they go all the way to declaring war to France. With a good Army and Navy, and France distracted by the wars in Europe and its own domestic problems, they quickly beat down the cheese-munchers and seize the French Caribbean. Lousiana Purchase becomes part of the aftermath (France relizes it cannot hold possessions in NA against American hostility), only ITTL Hispaniola becomes part of it. The Haiti half of the island goes through a rather complex shift between Black revolutionaries, French, and Americans, the outcome is that a largely depopulated Haiti eventually goes to America, and the South rebuilds it in its image. Much like Canada becomes a culturally distinct extension of the North, so Jamaica, St. Domingo, and the Guyanas become extensions of the South.
Yes, with the difference that ITTL Rupert's Land plays the role that OTL Canada did as a war aim. However, with the very good Army fostered by the Federalist Administration, and the superior strategic position given by American Canada, the US are able to kick the British off the NA mainland and resist all their attempts to land rather effectively (ITTL Washington doesn't burn, they make a successful last stand in the outskirts).
Weird. Some weird effect of what's going on in North America, butterflies, or a second POD?
Second PoD. It ensures that Britain is fatally overextended between Europe and North America (and Patagonia), so when news of defeat at Waterloo and in North America reach Londom, British will to fight collapses and they concede an unfavorable peace. Moreover, it starts Europe down the very long term path of continental consolidation under a Italo-German-Russian hegemony (the "Eurasia" to America's "Oceania").
Maybe, but that means we're beating the British on the High Seas. When exactly is the Second Anglo-American War?
On schedule, 1812-1816. However, you have to remind that even OTL, American Navy was close to qualitatively superior, ship-by-ship, to British one. It was only that bloody Jeffersonians left it terribly undersized. ITTL the Federalist Administrations have spent a couple decades building it up, so, with Britain fatally overextended between Europe and NA, the US are able to seize naval parity in the Caribbean. Therefore, their landings and efforts to supply their forces in Jamaica and Guyana succeed. It's not like everything goes well for America, however: their landings in Trinidad and Cuba fail, and the British land in Haiti (lathough it is won back at the peace table). I suppose I could have written a failed attempt to seize NFL as well, but it escaped me at the time.
That is awfully far for the US to be straying. I'd more believe kicking the Brits out of Belize for example.
Well, the alliance between the USA and the Bolivar cadre of revolutionaries in Gran Colombia is already in effect during the war of 1812, so the Americans are attacking there to connect with their allies and get their support in turn.
In practice, America is fighting the War of 1812 and its intervention in the Wars of Independence of South America (within limits; they are best buddies with Bolivar, but events in Mexico unfold largely out their influence, which is why they still have to fight the Mexican-American War decades later) at once. On its part, Britain is fighting the War of 1812, the Napoleonic Wars, with their all-important tail-end three-way match between Russia-Prussia-Naples, UK-Austria, and Two Hundred Days Napoleon, and the conquest of Patagonia, which makes them swing between being allies and enemies of Spanish colonial administration in South America. And newborn Brazil plays a minor role as well.
The final result, when dust settles, is that America annexes Rupert’s Land, North-Western Territory, Labrador, Jamaica, the Guianas, and keeps Hispaniola. Britain and Spain recognize US suzerainty over Florida and the independence of Gran Colombia and Peru as US protectorates (going to get statehood in a couple decades), and the USA recognize British suzerainty over NFL, Rio de la Plata, and Chile (which britain has been grabbing piecemeal from Spain over the last decade). US diplomats fail to gain Cuba, Puerto Rico, Newfoundland, the rest of the British West Indies, at the treaty table. USA and Britain agree to “joint occupancy” of Pacific Northwest and restore normal trade relations. Britain pledges to end impressment of US citizens.
The outcome in Europe is even more complex and a radical divergence from OTL, but it may be basically boiled down to: Napoleon kicks British butt, Russia-Prussia-Naples curbstomp Austria, later eventually vanquish Napoleon with superior numbers. Exhausted Britain concedes victory to America and the Eastern alliance, turns to Asia and South America to rebuild its empire. France suffers territorial losses, but keeps Napoleon II on the throne. Austria is kicked out of Germany, Bohemia, and Italy, and is headed to collapse in a couple decades. Russia gets free hands in the Balkans and kicks the Ottomans out of Europe. Grossdeutchsland and Italy are headed to unify under Prussian and Murattian Neapolitan leadership within a couple decades. Russia, Germany, Italy, and France become conservative liberal constitutional monarchies, as does Spain later.
I have a hard time seeing Americans in Guyana but not Newfoundland.
Well, Britain bargains to keep NFL and Vancouver Island, and (eventually temporary) co-ownership of the Pacfic Northwest as face-saving valuable economic outposts. America is very satisfied at having kicked the Redcoats almost entirely out the NA mainland and most of the Caribbean, not to mention seizing an empire in one-third of South America, they don't want to push their luck further. They figure that if they really want, they can always kick the British out of NFL later, when they have rested and built up their strength further. The most important thing is that they have secured all NA but Mexico (for now) as a free playground for their settlers, even if the SA protectorates are very nice, too. They (accurately) figure they can easily kick out the British out of Oregon-Columbia later, if London becomes unreasonable (i.e. it doesn't agree to graciously sell the territory when Yankee settlers begin swamping it, too), but that UK shall most likely see the futility of fighting again for it.
As it concerns preferring Guyana to NFL, well, it is mostly the effect of the growing ties with South America.
In the years immediately before the War of 1812, a "continentalist" proto-Manifest Destiny opinion movement develops in the USA that supports the forceful expulsion of all remaining colonial empires from the Americas and the union of all its inhabitants under the American model. Strong partecipation of Catholic French-speakers in the ARW means that the American public feels much more sympathetic at spreading its Revolution, and eventually sharing the bed with, the Latin American colonies. Both because of this, and because the Iroquois were patriots too, there is much less racism towards the South Americans as well.
Simon Bolivar travels to the USA with a group of followers. They are greately impressed by the freedom and prosperity that US citizens enjoy and vow to bring the benefits of the "American experiment" to their land. Bolivar gathers monetary and weapon support for the cause of pro-US Spanish-American independence from US government officials and sympathetic private citizens.
The movement takes a definite anti-British and anti-Spanish slant, and many Congressmen (the "War Hawks") are elected as supporters of war against British and Spanish colonial rule in the Americas. The volunteer "American Legion" militia gathers to support the cause. Simon Bolivar returns to New Granada with a cadre of US and creole volunteers and starts his own revolution with ample US support.
Okay. That seems a bit better than our own ARW without a clear reason.
The ARW unfolds somewhat better than OTL for the Patriots because they have Canada and the Iroquois tribes on their side. E.g. they get Halifax early on. Although the British reconquer it and New York later, they soon lose them again. They lose more ground from Canada to the South faster, and are more hard-pressed over a larger front, so they start negotiations in 1779 and sign the peace treaty in 1781.
That seems a bit extreme, and if you're doing it for loyalists, early.
Well, no, serious British expansion in Rio de la Plata starts in 1804-1805. The loss of Canada butterflies half-assed OTL British encroachement in the region into a more serious attempt to rebuild an empire far from the purview of the bloody Colonials. It is not the only butterfly, by the way, that results from being kicked in the Americans: e.g. later they grab western Indonesia from the Dutch, and get more serious about colonization of China.
As you say, Loyalists get scattered in various UK colonies, but when British South America is seized and opened up, several redirect there.
If its there, some would go.
Well, this may be a reason why Britain strives to keep NFL in 1816.
I wish I believed it were that simple to get a more peaceful clash of civilizations....
Nothing is ever entirely simple, but butterflies matter. Patriot Iroquois mean that American culture develops a template in its formative years for "friendly, civilized" Indians as part of their society. Basically, anti-Indian racism swings from being blood-based to being cultural and economical. The idea is that if an Indian accepts American civilization and way of life, and shares the goods with American settlers, he is worthy a place in the American experiment, albeit perhaps not full equality (that needs to wait for the post-ACW destruction of Southern racism).
Therefore, "civilized" tribes that accept to farm the land, adopt American culture, and, optimally, become Christian (or a plausible fake), and share valuable lands with US settlers, are deemed second-class citizens, but citizens all the same, worthy assimilation and not extermination. Make no mistake, "savage" tribes that forcefully resist assimilation and American colonization, and stubbornly cling to their traditional lifestyle, are seen and treated just as bad as OTL, perhaps even more so. This means e.g. that the Civilized Tribes are spared the Trail of Tears and are assimilated in place, except the Seminoles that pick a feud with the American government because of their anti-slavery attitudes (most unfortunately, a few decades too early) and are largely exterminated. For the other tribes, it is a piecemeal pattern, several get assimilation, some are wiped out in blood and fire. But this also means that the American public has not so many blood-based racist qualms about political unity with the culturally assimilated Hispanics (especially their elites).
That seems unlikely, but more likely with Quebec in the Union as they have at least one Romance Speaking Catholic predominant state as a role model.
That, and ther fact that Yankees are nowhere so disdainful as OTL towards Latin Americans, and the fact that the USA pour a lot of assistance to their fight for independence, so they get to be seen as liberators and "elder brethen" role models, not imperialist oppressors. Add a couple decades of growing political and economic ties under the protectorate system, and familiarity with US culture and political system, and the Latin American states eagerly vote themselves into statehood. Also the fact that Simon Bolivar practically gets adopted by American culture as "the last Founding Father" helps.
