WI: No Norman England, no centralised French Kingdom

There have been threads on similar questions on here before (from 2012 through 2019, if I've been able to use the search option properly), but discussions there often stopped fast, while longer ones shifted their focus back to the British Isles, while "No Norman Conquest" threads of course focus on the isles first and foremost.

There seems to be a near-consensus in these threads, though, that it was the permanent conflicts between England and France were perhaps the single most important factor contributing to the centralisation of the French monarchy, which started in the 13th century and picked up steam towards the end of the 100YW.

My interest is really to pursue the possibility of "no centralisation of France" further, but without this ending up in an English-dominated France, or an HRE-wank. In fact, what I'm most interested in is the possibility of the late medieval trend towards centralised monarchies never occurring, or at least not occurring on the scale of OTL, all the while assuming that England and France were the primary drivers and models for this development. (I know this ignores the role of the Roman Catholic church and its strong support for such monarchies all throughout the 9th, 10th and 11th centuries. The reason why I'm ignoring this is because by the 11th century and its waves of religious reform, power politics were no longer that easy and the church rather turned to a struggle to maintain its supreme independence e.g. vis-a-vis the HREmperors.)

So, here goes a new attempt at the What If question:

What if William is defeated and killed in 1066, the Godwinsons continue to rule England, and they don't interfere in France much, at least way less than the Norman-English monarchs did? Assume - if you like, consider this a second PoD - that from the 12th to the 15th centuries, there are no major and long-lasting wars between English and French armies, and that all the impulses towards a centralisation of power in the hands of the Kings of France that came from this perennial struggle are absent.

I'm interested in various dimensions of this scenario:
Concepts of statehood
IOTL, the idea of "the state" as it emerged in the centuries of the early modern age, was initially conceptualised almost exclusively as a centralised and even absolute monarchy. Of course there are precedents for this throughout history - but would it still emerge in Western Europe with these changes in England and France occurring? (If so, why? What are the driving forces?) Or would feudalism develop into a different direction? Which role would towns, rural communes, and leagues between them play? Could we see the emergence of concepts of modern statehood based on them? (How would a political philosophy based on this look?) Or would the church and references back to Roman times and structures remain much more influential in these developments? (This does not look very likely to me with a PoD in 1066... but maybe I'm wrong?!)

Economy
How would no Anglo-French wars and no centralisation of the French monarchy affect the development of trade, crafts, agriculture, monetarisation and financialisation, the nuclei of modern capitalism etc.? Would it aid them (given how much of this flowered most where central power was weakest, i.e. in Northern Italy)? Or would it hinder them (because of less safety? rather not likely, but maybe because standardisation helped a lot here? evidently, things look different when we move into the modern age and the atlantic exchange... so let's look at that, too: )

Butterflies in different parts of the world
How would the PoD(s) affect the Iberian peninsula?
More indirectly, if this isn't too unpredictable: How could it affect the "discovery" of the Americas?
How would it affect the Holy Roman Empire? The Italian peninsula?
(I'm rather less interested in effects on Scandinavia, but if you can come up with interesting ideas on that region, go ahead!)

Languages
Evidently, and there have been many threads on this topic as well as research elsewhere, without the Norman Conquest, English would be utterly different. And perhaps not be spoken in Ireland. Maybe not even in Scotland?
But, as I said, I'd like to focus on the consequences on the continent:
What are the effects on the langues d'oc? Can we say anything about butterflies on Iberian languages? Anything else?

I hope you find the convoluted premise(s) acceptable (if not, feel free to deconstruct my basic underlying assumptions!) and I'm very curious to hear what your thoughts are!
 
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Languages
Evidently, and there have been many threads on this topic as well as research elsewhere, without the Norman Conquest, English would be utterly different. And perhaps not be spoken in Ireland. Maybe not even in Scotland?
But, as I said, I'd like to focus on the consequences on the continent:
What are the effects on the langues d'oc? Can we say anything about butterflies on Iberian languages? Anything else?

I hope you find the convoluted premise(s) acceptable (if not, feel free to deconstruct my basic underlying assumptions!) and I'm very curious to hear what your thoughts are!
No Norman Conquest, Langues D'Oil would be threatened by Occitan not the other way around, the Normans made way for Langues D'Oil to have some international exposure.
 
No Norman Conquest, Langues D'Oil would be threatened by Occitan not the other way around, the Normans made way for Langues D'Oil to have some international exposure.
This is an interesting take.
Though, would they really be threatened?
The langues d'Oc were certainly the languages of a blossoming literary culture, but in terms of population, economic power and political power, wouldn't that rather establish a balance instead of outright Southern hegemony? If such a hegemony really comes about - which I find interesting! - then how does it happen?
 
Languages
Evidently, and there have been many threads on this topic as well as research elsewhere, without the Norman Conquest, English would be utterly different. And perhaps not be spoken in Ireland. Maybe not even in Scotland?
But, as I said, I'd like to focus on the consequences on the continent:
What are the effects on the langues d'oc? Can we say anything about butterflies on Iberian languages? Anything else?

I hope you find the convoluted premise(s) acceptable (if not, feel free to deconstruct my basic underlying assumptions!) and I'm very curious to hear what your thoughts are!
IMO if anglo-saxon england manages to consolidate themselves they'll definitively expand. in 1066 it has only been a couple of decades since the loss of lothain, and if they were to recover it they would surely push even further into scotland
 
IMO if anglo-saxon england manages to consolidate themselves they'll definitively expand. in 1066 it has only been a couple of decades since the loss of lothain, and if they were to recover it they would surely push even further into scotland
Would this drive towards expansion be faster or slower, more successful or less so than that of OTL's England?
If it sticks, how does it change the Anglo-Saxon kingdom internally?
 
This is an interesting take.
Though, would they really be threatened?
The langues d'Oc were certainly the languages of a blossoming literary culture, but in terms of population, economic power and political power, wouldn't that rather establish a balance instead of outright Southern hegemony? If such a hegemony really comes about - which I find interesting! - then how does it happen?
Similar to Scotland and England.
They had the population and power prior to the marriage of Eleanor of Aquitaine and the Albigensian Crusade, butterflying would reverse the circumstances of Oil and Oc languages.
 
Would this drive towards expansion be faster or slower, more successful or less so than that of OTL's England?
If it sticks, how does it change the Anglo-Saxon kingdom internally?
IIRC the anglo-saxons were skirmishing with the welsh, so i could see them taking on wales earlier than IOTL. Especially as England's resources aren't used for adventures in France
 
This is a hypothetical which also interests me.

- Harold Godwinson fought against the Welsh in the period before his coronation and absolutely shattered their one successful attempt at unification ever. Would be go after them again? Not necessarily. Consider that the Anglo-Saxons had a much different foreign policy than the Norman English. Harboring Godwin loyalists was a casus beli used by William in fighting in Ireland, Scotland, and Wales. The Godwins did not have such reasons. Anglo-Saxons typically preferred to keep the peace, and absorbing a non-Engligh speaking realm the English had no claim to was more trouble than it's worth. Even after William the Bastard's death, Harold Godwinson's rule wasn't necessarily secure. We'll get into that, but this means he isn't about to attack Wales. It's more trouble than it's worth and the peace he personally sought was supposed to be long-lasting. He was married to the ex-wife of Gruffudd ap Llywelyn. That isn't to say there isn't a basis for future conquest. Ætherald the Unready styled himself as King of All Britain. I think the Welsh conquest just is not going to start with Harold.

- England would continue to hold very Scandinavian roots. Harold Godwinson was half-Swedish and there were people alive at the time who remembered the Danelaw. England's trajectory was pointing towards remaining Anglo-Norse at the time. England would be much more concerned with the goings-on of Denmark and Norway than they would with, say, the Spanish. Their politics were very intertwined at this point and they aren't just going to grow apart. We can expect England to perhaps assert its dominance over a weaker Denmark or Norway. Now, an effort to become more "Latin" was being undertaken by Edward the Confessor and I think this might continue to some degree. Adopting certain things associated with Latindom just came with the territory of being a Catholic, and perhaps certain civic things brought over by the Normans would become adopted in England in the decades or centuries after our PoD.

- Speaking of the church, the Archbishop of Canterbury/York was *not* on good terms with the Pope at this point, and the Papacy aided William the Bastard. Harold Godwinson may take a harder stance against the church, especially in the wake of the Gregorian reforms. A major component to any given witan was the clergy. The King of England historically appointed the Archbishop of Canterbury, and an outside power removing such privileges was not a welcome intrusion. This miniature investiture crisis nearly resulted in the King of England being excommunicated in OTL, but he responded that he would not aid the first Crusade if that happened. I think this situation might get even worse for Harold Godwinson or his heir, though going to the Vatican to meet the Pope was one of many ways Anglo-Saxon kings liked to avoid responsibility and they did it a lot, so perhaps there's some possibility at reconciliation?

- Speaking of butterflies, the English would probably be a bit less concerned with the crusade, which may or may not affect its outcome.

- The castles of England would almost certainly not have been built to such an extent at this point. They were a means of keeping local lords in line, who definitely liked to rock the boat in Anglo-Saxon England sure, but not to an extent where a massive castle initiative would have been undertaken. Perhaps some later turmoil can give us the castles we want... if we want to shoehorn castles?

I've done some work on this sort of scenario elsewhere, I'll pop in if I remember more.
 
I mean if we're butterflying away high medieval centralised monarchy and keeping it more local then-

1. Without strong kings able to legally challenge the Holy Roman Emperor, id imagine a longer period where the Emperor is seen as the true sovereign of all Christendom, with kings being officially his subordinates, in a king of kings type situation. You'd probably butterfly away legal concepts like "each king has the authority of the emperor within his own kingdom".

2. Butterflying away the standardising effect of royal chanceries on romance languages, you could see it develop more in accordance with the period OTL before the 1250s when Occitan was the only real written romance language, and Occitan spelling and grammar was adopted by many vernacular writers across romance Europe. Maybe the concept of separate romance languages never really takes off, and it stays just dialects of a newer stage of a conceptually unified Latin.
 
I mean if we're butterflying away high medieval centralised monarchy and keeping it more local then-

1. Without strong kings able to legally challenge the Holy Roman Emperor, id imagine a longer period where the Emperor is seen as the true sovereign of all Christendom, with kings being officially his subordinates, in a king of kings type situation. You'd probably butterfly away legal concepts like "each king has the authority of the emperor within his own kingdom".

2. Butterflying away the standardising effect of royal chanceries on romance languages, you could see it develop more in accordance with the period OTL before the 1250s when Occitan was the only real written romance language, and Occitan spelling and grammar was adopted by many vernacular writers across romance Europe. Maybe the concept of separate romance languages never really takes off, and it stays just dialects of a newer stage of a conceptually unified Latin.
Basically an amalgam of Sabir and Occitan.
 
I mean if we're butterflying away high medieval centralised monarchy and keeping it more local then-

1. Without strong kings able to legally challenge the Holy Roman Emperor, id imagine a longer period where the Emperor is seen as the true sovereign of all Christendom, with kings being officially his subordinates, in a king of kings type situation. You'd probably butterfly away legal concepts like "each king has the authority of the emperor within his own kingdom".

2. Butterflying away the standardising effect of royal chanceries on romance languages, you could see it develop more in accordance with the period OTL before the 1250s when Occitan was the only real written romance language, and Occitan spelling and grammar was adopted by many vernacular writers across romance Europe. Maybe the concept of separate romance languages never really takes off, and it stays just dialects of a newer stage of a conceptually unified Latin.
Why do you think Anglo Saxons couldn't create centralized monarchy on their own?
 
Similar to Scotland and England.
They had the population and power prior to the marriage of Eleanor of Aquitaine and the Albigensian Crusade, butterflying would reverse the circumstances of Oil and Oc languages.
I don't think the population numbers of Northern vs. Southern France were quite as unbalanced as those between Scotland and England?!
Speaking of the Albigensian Crusade, I tend to agree with you that it might never happen ITTL. Why exactly, though, is not yet clear to me (no Cathar heresy in the first place? no stark confrontation between Toulouse and the kings and no chance to enforce royal authority? - if the latter, wouldn't Rome still try to make, well, almost anyone try to wipe out the heresy?)
I mean if we're butterflying away high medieval centralised monarchy and keeping it more local then-

1. Without strong kings able to legally challenge the Holy Roman Emperor, id imagine a longer period where the Emperor is seen as the true sovereign of all Christendom, with kings being officially his subordinates, in a king of kings type situation. You'd probably butterfly away legal concepts like "each king has the authority of the emperor within his own kingdom".
Which kings, except for the Bohemian Przemyslids (and much later the Prussian, Bavarian, Wurttembergian etc. Kings), saw themselves as subordinate to the HRE after 1066 IOTL?
2. Butterflying away the standardising effect of royal chanceries on romance languages, you could see it develop more in accordance with the period OTL before the 1250s when Occitan was the only real written romance language, and Occitan spelling and grammar was adopted by many vernacular writers across romance Europe. Maybe the concept of separate romance languages never really takes off, and it stays just dialects of a newer stage of a conceptually unified Latin.
That sounds very, very intriguing, but weren't the vernacular Romance languages already way too diversified for such a view? Their grammar, syntax, vocabulary were so far apart from Medieval Latin that it seems difficult to treat them as mere "dialects of Latin", I would think , at least in the way we understand the term "dialects" today.

@Crim ,
very, very interesting thoughts! Thank you so much! I'd be happy to hear more whenever you find the time...!

@All, I'm glad this discussion has taken off. I'll come back with some more thoughts and questions on centralisation, religion, castles and crusades later this week.
 
I don't think the population numbers of Northern vs. Southern France were quite as unbalanced as those between Scotland and England?!
Speaking of the Albigensian Crusade, I tend to agree with you that it might never happen ITTL. Why exactly, though, is not yet clear to me (no Cathar heresy in the first place? no stark confrontation between Toulouse and the kings and no chance to enforce royal authority? - if the latter, wouldn't Rome still try to make, well, almost anyone try to wipe out the heresy?)
But ITTL the people who would perform the Albigensian crusade(if the massacres, instability, and wars caused by the marriage of Eleanor to Henry II would be butterflied) would be Occitan speakers themselves, the Duke of Aquitaine could take advantage of the Albigensian heresy and remove the Counts of Toulouse and it was duke of Normandy and its expansion is what allowed the unification of Northern France, a fragmented and Northern France would look to the peaceful South instead.
 
Which kings, except for the Bohemian Przemyslids (and much later the Prussian, Bavarian, Wurttembergian etc. Kings), saw themselves as subordinate to the HRE after 1066 IOTL?
It was a juridical position that was seen as the logical consequence of Roman law- as study of Roman law really restarted, it was originally taken for granted that everywhere that was part of the Roman empire still followed Roman law, which of course granted absolute sovereignty over the entire world to the emperor. It was thirteenth century France that first really tried to find a legal basis for their king recognising no superior in temporal matters, but even there, many jurists felt that the emperor still had de jure authority over the king.

Apparently one of the most important jurists in the school of Orleans ruled that "it is impossible for the kingdom of France to not be a part of the empire- if the king of France does not recognise this, I do not care"

Even the French scholars who tried to exempt their kingdom from imperial overlordship rarely made claims about anyone else, and some explicitly stated that only the kingdom of France was exempt due to being part of the Carolingian empire, and it was a long process through the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries for other kingdoms to put their lawyers to work justifying similar claims.

You're right, kings very often didn't recognize that the emperor had any right to curtail their sovereignty, but it took time for people to develop a conceptual framework that allowed for that in a Christian context.



That sounds very, very intriguing, but weren't the vernacular Romance languages already way too diversified for such a view?
Considering how long Latin continued to be used, and that by taking up service with their own king scribes would need to learn the spelling conventions and grammar of the dialect used in that particular kings chancery anyway, I don't think it's impossible for a common chancery language to emerge thats used as an educated register of romance.
 
Interesting thread idea... About the Anglo-Saxon kingdom, I tend to think that even if ITTL would probably be more focused in the Norse kingdoms affairs rather than as OTL in Normandy and the French Feuds politics and internecine conflicts...
But,even so I would think that even if a lesser extent than OTL, that the Royal marriage politics of link with the continental royal houses that dated back from the Carolingian dynasty; still might make to get involved on the continental affairs and
viceversa...
2. Butterflying away the standardising effect of royal chanceries on romance languages, you could see it develop more in accordance with the period OTL before the 1250s when Occitan was the only real written romance language, and Occitan spelling and grammar was adopted by many vernacular writers across romance Europe. Maybe the concept of separate romance languages never really takes off, and it stays just dialects of a newer stage of a conceptually unified Latin.
That sounds very, very intriguing, but weren't the vernacular Romance languages already way too diversified for such a view? Their grammar, syntax, vocabulary were so far apart from Medieval Latin that it seems difficult to treat them as mere "dialects of Latin", I would think , at least in the way we understand the term "dialects" today.
Considering how long Latin continued to be used, and that by taking up service with their own king scribes would need to learn the spelling conventions and grammar of the dialect used in that particular kings chancery anyway, I don't think it's impossible for a common chancery language to emerge thats used as an educated register of romance.
I don't think that a change of such extension would be possible.... First cause its an ongoing socio-linguistic process of evolution and diversification from the Vulgar Latin on Western Europe that had already been too much advanced as for that the pod's possible cultural consequences would reach and/or that it'd have noteworthy effects beyond the English Kingdom...
And, cause, at this stage most of the cultured/literate class weren't located on the still incipient royal chancelleries but rather on the Monastics scriptoria spread through the Latin Christendom. That aside of the transcriptions of the Oral epics to the proto Romance languages, (such as the Poem of the Cid) there were, (generally on the form of glosses), where the Medieval scribes first started to use and to put the base of the Vernacular (Romance) Languages in their written forms..

By way of example, I think that aside of the already mentioned Poem of the Cid, that generally its dated as to have had been transcript to the Old Castilian, around the 1200 CE. Also, might be worthy to mention that in the Iberian case, there are a few noteworthy examples such as the 'Nodicia de kesos' that its an manuscript found on the backside of a tenth-century parchment'', a series of 12th-century Visigoths documents denominated as the cartularies of Valpuesta, which are estimated to be the oldest sample of manuscripts written/copies in old Castilian. Finally, I'd like to mention to the Glosas Silenses and particularly to the Glosas Emilianenses, that could be considered as the Iberian and Hispanic Romances languages evolution equivalent to the Strasbourg Oaths for Old French. Which, it's so, thanks to its texts written on a simplified version of Latin, an medieval form of a Romance language (which most often is classified as Navarro-Aragonese or a related dialect) and in Medieval Basque.''
 
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One point to mention is that the Normans abolished slavery in England, replacing it with serfdom. Slavery probably still gets phased out and English systems still converge with that of the continent. Despite popular belief the Normans didn't open up England to continental influence, Frankish influence through the church and trade was pretty strong since the conversion in the 600s.
 
One point to mention is that the Normans abolished slavery in England, replacing it with serfdom. Slavery probably still gets phased out and English systems still converge with that of the continent. Despite popular belief the Normans didn't open up England to continental influence, Frankish influence through the church and trade was pretty strong since the conversion in the 600s.
This is both true and a very double-edged sword. For while slaves were a small group (estimates have them at around 10 % of the population at most), serfdom soon befell the majority of the rural population. I agree with you that continental influences were very much present in pre-Norman England, and would in all likelihood continue to be so or intensify. Whether this "conversion" means near-universal serfdom, though, is not exactly a given, I would say. Looking at Norway and Sweden, you'll find a much smaller class of unfree peasants there and a much larger class of free peasants throughout all centuries when compared to most other places on the continent. Thralldom was phased out across the Middle Ages and officially abolished in the 14th c. in Scandinavia, England might be faster here or it might not, but I don't see why such a wholesale change of socio-economic structures would come about (if no later full-scale conquest comparable to OTL's 1066 happens, which I would hereby rule out).
 
On Latin and the Romance languages, I very much tend to share @Xenophonte's views. The languages had developed and were written already. Latin was very much a written language by this point, so any form of spoken Koiné / Sabir would have to be formed anew, as it was IOTL. OTL's Sabir was a fringe phenomenon and did not enjoy high status. The kind of spoken common Latin you're looking for, as a highly respected language, might yet evolve, but it would need strong supporting factors.
 
- Harold Godwinson fought against the Welsh in the period before his coronation and absolutely shattered their one successful attempt at unification ever. Would be go after them again? Not necessarily. Consider that the Anglo-Saxons had a much different foreign policy than the Norman English. Harboring Godwin loyalists was a casus beli used by William in fighting in Ireland, Scotland, and Wales. The Godwins did not have such reasons. Anglo-Saxons typically preferred to keep the peace, and absorbing a non-Engligh speaking realm the English had no claim to was more trouble than it's worth. Even after William the Bastard's death, Harold Godwinson's rule wasn't necessarily secure. We'll get into that, but this means he isn't about to attack Wales
This - and it ties in with the "castle topic" you raise later - is another thing that needs consideration. Just how "stable" would this Anglo-Saxon monarchy be, how would its conflicts transform (for we can't just assume that in Late Middle Ages they take on the same forms we know from the Early Middle Ages of OTL)?
- England would continue to hold very Scandinavian roots. Harold Godwinson was half-Swedish and there were people alive at the time who remembered the Danelaw. England's trajectory was pointing towards remaining Anglo-Norse at the time. England would be much more concerned with the goings-on of Denmark and Norway than they would with, say, the Spanish. Their politics were very intertwined at this point and they aren't just going to grow apart. We can expect England to perhaps assert its dominance over a weaker Denmark or Norway.
That would mean interference in succession disputes and the like? Or more?
How about the Northern parts of the HRE - they were economically closely tied to Scandinavia and England. IOTL, the commercial initiative lay there, e.g. with the Hanseatic League who sprouted contors from London to Novgorod. Any large trends foreseeable here with an Anglo-Saxon monarchy focusing on its role as North Sea hegemon?
- Speaking of the church, the Archbishop of Canterbury/York was *not* on good terms with the Pope at this point, and the Papacy aided William the Bastard. Harold Godwinson may take a harder stance against the church, especially in the wake of the Gregorian reforms. A major component to any given witan was the clergy. The King of England historically appointed the Archbishop of Canterbury, and an outside power removing such privileges was not a welcome intrusion. This miniature investiture crisis nearly resulted in the King of England being excommunicated in OTL, but he responded that he would not aid the first Crusade if that happened. I think this situation might get even worse for Harold Godwinson or his heir, though going to the Vatican to meet the Pope was one of many ways Anglo-Saxon kings liked to avoid responsibility and they did it a lot, so perhaps there's some possibility at reconciliation?
I find both paths plausible and interesting to pursue...
- Speaking of butterflies, the English would probably be a bit less concerned with the crusade, which may or may not affect its outcome.
I'll have to think of that. I'm pretty sure you're right here. That would require checking in which key battles English knights played crucial roles. Currently no time for that, but it could escalate butterflies into the Eastern Med much faster than I had thought.
- The castles of England would almost certainly not have been built to such an extent at this point. They were a means of keeping local lords in line, who definitely liked to rock the boat in Anglo-Saxon England sure, but not to an extent where a massive castle initiative would have been undertaken. Perhaps some later turmoil can give us the castles we want... if we want to shoehorn castles?

I've done some work on this sort of scenario elsewhere, I'll pop in if I remember more.
Yes, please do! Thank you!
 
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