WI No Miracle at Midway?

[bard32]

Inspired by WI Disaster at Pearl Harbor. What if there was no "miracle at Midway"? Here's my timeline. So be please be patient with me.
May 7, 1942 The USN loses Lexington and Yorktown in the Battle of the Coral Sea
May 24, 1942 After three days of repairs, a damaged Wasp is patched up and
prepared for battle.
June 1, 1942 Commander Rochefort, Admiral Nimitz's intelligence chief, fails to
break JN-24, (also known as Purple), and the Redmans' assessment that the
main target of the Japanese, isn't Midway, but the West Coast, is accepted.
June 3, 1942 Against orders from Washington, Nimitz, and acting on Rochefort's hunch that the letters "AF" stand for Midway. Wasp leaves Pearl
Harbor, along with Enterprise, and Hornet.
June 4, 1942 American PBYs fail to spot the Japanese carriers but planes from
the Tone` spot the American carriers. Nagumo orders his planes launched against Midway. The Japanese attack is successful and planes from Midway are a non-factor in the battle. The Japanese planes are recovered, rearmed,
refueled, and sent back out to hunt the Americans. The first ship the Japanese pilots see is the American heavy cruiser Augusta , and sinks it. Planes from Enterprise's Scouting 6 search everywhere for the Japanese carriers, but are still unable to find them on the first day.
June 5, 1942 Early on the second day, Scouting 6 from Enterprise, locates the Japanese carriers. Due to confusion, the Devastator torpedo bombers from Enterprise, Hornet, and Wasp, are left without fighter escorts, and are
all shot down. The dive-bombers from the three carriers miss their targets and return to their ships. They're all recovered and rearmed to try again the
next day.
June 6, 1942 0730 Hours Enterprise's radar operators spot a large number of
"bogies". (Japanese Val dive-bombers, and Kate torpedo bombers, escorted by Zeros,) headed toward the American fleet. The Kates are all shot down when they line up for their runs on the American carriers. Either by antiaircraft guns, or American fighters, flying BARCAP over the carriers.
The torpedo bombers and Zeros succeed in drawing off the American fighters and the Vals bear in for the kill. Final result, Wasp, smashed, flight
deck unusable, fires burning out of control, and sinking. Hornet, smashed, flight deck unusable, fires burning out of control, and sinking, Enterprise,
smashed, fires under control, flight deck unusable, one boiler working, limping back to Pearl Harbor. The greatest disaster in American naval history since the battle between the Chesapeake and the Shannon.

 

[The Dean]

That is a more likely scenario than the events that actually happened. It just goes to show truth can be stranger than fiction and almost anything is possible.

 

[CalBear]

I have to say that, especially compared to some other posts, this makes some sense. The degree of damage is a bit high, but it makes some sense.

How did Wasp wind up at Midway? She was delivering planes to Malta on May 9th.

As to the end result - Not a bit of difference as to the end game. Japane still is defeated by the end of Summer 1945.

 

[bard32]

I have to say that, especially compared to some other posts, this makes some sense. The degree of damage is a bit high, but it makes some sense.

How did Wasp wind up at Midway? She was delivering planes to Malta on May 9th.

As to the end result - Not a bit of difference as to the end game. Japane still is defeated by the end of Summer 1945.

The scenario I created had both Lexington and Yorktown sunk at Coral Sea.
It would have been easy for Nimitz, the commander of the Pacific Fleet, to order Wasp to return to the United States. The nearest carrier to Hawaii,
Saratoga, was in San Diego, at the time. Besides, with butterflies, maybe another carrier got the order and Wasp was at Coral Sea.

 

[bard32]

That is a more likely scenario than the events that actually happened. It just goes to show truth can be stranger than fiction and almost anything is possible.

That was almost the scenario. I could have had the American carriers lured north to the Aleutians.

 

[The Dean]

One outcome would be for the new fleet carriers to be built faster.

 

[Anaxagoras]

As to the end result - Not a bit of difference as to the end game. Japane still is defeated by the end of Summer 1945.

You're right in assuming that Japan would still lose, so long as American political will holds. But I think the defeat of Japan would be postponed until the summer of 1946.

 

[Hyperion]

Bard your plot has holes in it big enough to fly jets through.

The Wasp was nowhere near the Pacific until Mid June, she was in the Atlantic.

Also, the Saratoga was under repair from a torpedo attack in January and wasn't available until after the battle anyways.

 

[bard32]

Hyperion, I was doing a hypothetical here. Wasp was the only carrier, other than Saratoga, that I could think of. I couldn't think of another carrier. However, it's still plausible. That was what Yamamoto wanted. According to one of my books, The Battle of Midway, the United States and Japan were planning for a war with each other since 1898. The original plan called for the United States Navy to fight its way across the Pacific to the Philippines,
and ultimately, Japan itself. In late May 1942, Yamamoto conducted a war game in Tokyo Bay. The umpire for the war game was Admiral Ugaki. On a
role of the dice, Japan lost two aircraft carriers. Yamamoto objected and the
two carriers were restored. Ironically, the result of the Battle of Midway, was
exactly as originally gamed out. If Washington had ignored Rochefort, and listened to the Redmans, then Midway would have turned out differently.
If we'd failed to break JN-25, (AKA, Purple), Midway could have been much worse. The two scenarios could be, 1, the Japanese could have succeeded in luring us north to Aleutians, and destroying the carriers, leaving Midway undefended, or, 2, the Japanese could have destroyed the carriers and Enterprise, like Yorktown, could have been under tow, and sunk by a Japanese submarine. As I said before, orders could be changed at the last minute.

 

[CalBear]

The scenario I created had both Lexington and Yorktown sunk at Coral Sea.
It would have been easy for Nimitz, the commander of the Pacific Fleet, to order Wasp to return to the United States. The nearest carrier to Hawaii,
Saratoga, was in San Diego, at the time. Besides, with butterflies, maybe another carrier got the order and Wasp was at Coral Sea.

The Wasp was committed to the Atlantic Fleet. The mission to relieve Malta was considered to be critical to the overall "Europe First" strategy (whether it was is a different issue). There is not enough time to get her out of the Med, arrange for Pac Fleet escorts to meet her when she's through the Canal (Atlantic Fleet had priority on Destroyers at the time), get her to Pearl, refuel, and get to Midway in time.

The actual scenario has lots of issues, not the least being the mirroring of the effect of damage on the American carriers with those of the Japanese IOTL. Things didn't work that way, USN damage control was light years ahead of the IJN, actually light years ahead of anyone at that point in the war. Whether this is an indicator of good planning or a pessmistic attitude, is anyone's guess, but it a fact. The survival of Yorktown at Coral Sea, and her recovery from the first strike at Midway is ample demonstration of this reality.

There are other issues, but, as noted, this is a decent effort, albeit with holes & as such I will leave it here, unless you want a through deconstruction.

 

[bard32]

The Wasp was committed to the Atlantic Fleet. The mission to relieve Malta was considered to be critical to the overall "Europe First" strategy (whether it was is a different issue). There is not enough time to get her out of the Med, arrange for Pac Fleet escorts to meet her when she's through the Canal (Atlantic Fleet had priority on Destroyers at the time), get her to Pearl, refuel, and get to Midway in time.

The actual scenario has lots of issues, not the least being the mirroring of the effect of damage on the American carriers with those of the Japanese IOTL. Things didn't work that way, USN damage control was light years ahead of the IJN, actually light years ahead of anyone at that point in the war. Whether this is an indicator of good planning or a pessmistic attitude, is anyone's guess, but it a fact. The survival of Yorktown at Coral Sea, and her recovery from the first strike at Midway is ample demonstration of this reality.

There are other issues, but, as noted, this is a decent effort, albeit with holes & as such I will leave it here, unless you want a through deconstruction.

You're right, CalBear. We were light-years ahead of the Japanese when it came to damage control. However, by late in the war, it was much better.

 

[CalBear]

You're right, CalBear. We were light-years ahead of the Japanese when it came to damage control. However, by late in the war, it was much better.

I would question that. The Japanese NEVER put together a reasonable training program for her D/C parties (frex: as last as June 1944 the IJN lost the Taiho to a single torpedo hit due to a gas vapor explosion).

 

[Tom_B]

You're right in assuming that Japan would still lose, so long as American political will holds. But I think the defeat of Japan would be postponed until the summer of 1946.

The key question in the Pacific war always boils whether or not the US has a base from which to deliver the Abomb when it is ready. If it does then you get a very strict convergence at the end game.

 

[Slamet]

Here's a discussion of the scenario, along with some others that would supposedly carry the war until 1946 :

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=88120&highlight=Japanese+Victory

Midway wasn't a walk in the park like some say. The whole point of the Battle of Midway was to deny the US of striking Japan thru Midway, right? Then Midway will have to be occupied and/or rendered useless. Japan would break her teeth, indeed her whole jaw trying to conquer Midway.

 

[Markus]

The dive-bombers from the three carriers miss their targets and return to their ships. They're all recovered and rearmed to try again the
next day.

Three dive bomber squadrons and no hit at all? That´s rather impossible than unlikely.

The torpedo bombers and Zeros succeed in drawing off the American fighters and the Vals bear in for the kill.

Better make that the other way round. Vals carried only 250 kilo(550lb)bombs. Enough to sink a CA, but too small to do more than cripple a CV by destroying the fight deck. And unlike the IJN the USN had a good command&control system, therefore it´s highly unlikely the entire CAP bunches up like the japanese planes used to do.

 

[CalBear]

Three dive bomber squadrons and no hit at all? That´s rather impossible than unlikely.


Better make that the other way round. Vals carried only 250 kilo(550lb)bombs. Enough to sink a CA, but too small to do more than cripple a CV by destroying the fight deck. And unlike the IJN the USN had a good command&control system, therefore it´s highly unlikely the entire CAP bunches up like the japanese planes used to do.

It helps when your fighter actually have radios. For some bizarre reason the Japanese didn't equip the A6M of the era with one.

 

[Markus]

It helps when your fighter actually have radios. For some bizarre reason the Japanese didn't equip the A6M of the era with one.

Sort-of. The land-based Zeros didn´t have radios at all -and the Japanese paid for that in the Solomons- while the CV-based Zeros had "poor" ones. But without radar even good radios won´t help that much.

 

[rudebadger]

The key question in the Pacific war always boils whether or not the US has a base from which to deliver the Abomb when it is ready. If it does then you get a very strict convergence at the end game.

China was an alternative site for the A-Bomb launch (although considered less secure than OTL Tinian) and wasn't there a possible Aleutians B-29 base to launch from as well?

 

[Atreus]

I think Bard, in his desire to rewrite history in favour of the IJN with an old POD, has gone a bit to far with the Japan-wank at midway. Ignoring the apparently newfound american ability to teleport warships, and the apparent changing of the POD, Japan is going to suffer loses in this scenario.

But really, Midway is irrelevant in the scheme of things. American industrial power is such that Japan is doomed. even 1946 is stretching things, since all the US has to do is take Saipan (especially once it gets the bomb) to begin the process of reducing Japan to rubble.

 

[bard32]

China was an alternative site for the A-Bomb launch (although considered less secure than OTL Tinian) and wasn't there a possible Aleutians B-29 base to launch from as well?

The Japanese Zeros didn't even have self-sealing fuel tanks and Japanese pilots didn't even have parachutes. The F6F Hellcat, which made its combat
debut in 1943, was based on the Japanese Zero. During the Aleutians campaign in May 1943, a Japanese pilot died trying to land a Zero in the Aleutians. The plane was captured intact by Tactical Air Intelligence, and brought to the United States. That's when its shortcomings were revealed. It
stalled very easily in a dive. At Wake Island, the Hellcat defeated the Zero.
One of Japan's best aces was shot down and killed by a Hellcat pilot because he mistook a Hellcat for an older Wildcat.