WI: No Manchu expansion into China proper

[GauchoBadger]

Initially, Hong Taiji, the second major head of the 17th century Qing Manchu state, was quite reluctant to expand south into Ming territory, until he approved a risky invasion of Hebei in late 1643. He'd die before seeing the endeavor completed under his son and successor, who'd go on to conquer Beijing and eventually the vast majority of China's modern territory.
But what if the Qing emperor had instead decided not to expand into Ming territory in the 1640's, and the Manchu regime had remained confined to the north? What would be the consequences of a mini-Qing empire on Asian history from there on in? For how long would they be able to keep the Koreans and Mongols as vassals, for example?

 

[Peppe]

What would be the consequences of a mini-Qing empire on Asian history from there on in? For how long would they be able to keep the Koreans and Mongols as vassals, for example?

I think it depends on who takes over China

 

[Whiteshore]

Well, the development of the Shun Dynasty (Li Zicheng had taken Beijing and driven the last Ming Emperor to suicide when the Manchu invaded China) would be fairly interesting as well.

 

[raharris1973]

Initially, Hong Taiji, the second major head of the 17th century Qing Manchu state, was quite reluctant to expand south into Ming territory, until he approved a risky invasion of Hebei in late 1643. He'd die before seeing the endeavor completed under his son and successor, who'd go on to conquer Beijing and eventually the vast majority of China's modern territory.
But what if the Qing emperor had instead decided not to expand into Ming territory in the 1640's, and the Manchu regime had remained confined to the north? What would be the consequences of a mini-Qing empire on Asian history from there on in? For how long would they be able to keep the Koreans and Mongols as vassals, for example?

Mongols for longer than Koreans.

I think the Manchus would be weakened relative to the Dzungars and Russians too.

 

[GauchoBadger]

Bump. Any other thoughts, anyone?

 

[Help]

Maybe they can take enough of China to be rich but still a majority, and try to play the dynasties against each other. It would be precarious though.

 

[Wendell]

The Manchu state eventually collapses under the pressure of China, Mongolia, Russia, or combinations thereof.

 

[Vae Victus]

How much better off would Ming-ish China be 1644-1912 i wonder. A large part of the unrest was due to the tiny Manchu minority lording over the massive honking huge Han majority.

If the Ming was able to hold out, would they get their shit together and soon regain their dominant position i wonder, due to less friction from the rulers being upjumped steppe nomads.

 

[Whiteshore]

How much better off would Ming-ish China be 1644-1912 i wonder. A large part of the unrest was due to the tiny Manchu minority lording over the massive honking huge Han majority.

If the Ming was able to hold out, would they get their shit together and soon regain their dominant position i wonder, due to less friction from the rulers being upjumped steppe nomads.

Well, what would be more interesting would be how a lasting Shun Dynasty would develop considering Li Zicheng had taken Beijing by this point. We might see a scenario where a Shun Dynasty in the North faces off against a rump Ming Dynasty in the South.

 

[schai]

If a reinforcements had arrived to strengthen Li Zecheng's army during battle of Shanhai Pass, Li Zecheng could have won the battle and stopped the Manchu.

IMO, Manchu would try again in next couple decades. Furthermore, it would conquer all mongol tributes including these lived in southern Siberia and Xinjiang. A face-off with Russia would be next. Initially, it would have enough strength to stop the Russian. Unless it started to reform and adopt Russian technologies, it would be conquered by Russian.

China would be like this:

Well, what would be more interesting would be how a lasting Shun Dynasty would develop considering Li Zicheng had taken Beijing by this point. We might see a scenario where a Shun Dynasty in the North faces off against a rump Ming Dynasty in the South.

I don't believe Shun would last very long, since it didn't have a taxation system.

 

[Hvalrossen]

Well if the Manchu's expand into Korea, then we might see some kind of Korean wank. Overtime Manchu's might be assimilated into Korean society, at first those who move to the Korean peninsula. Later Korean migrants might arrive in Manchuria. Due to Manchuria having a relativly low population density the Korean settlers there might have a high population growth rate.

 

[AltoRegnant]

Well, the development of the Shun Dynasty (Li Zicheng had taken Beijing and driven the last Ming Emperor to suicide when the Manchu invaded China) would be fairly interesting as well.

i'm guessing they reform better than the Qing or Ming could i say as if that's an accomplishment. The Ming were damned to be reactionary and conservative, but I'm not so sure about why the Qing were so bad about reform

 

[GauchoBadger]

i'm guessing they reform better than the Qing or Ming could i say as if that's an accomplishment. The Ming were damned to be reactionary and conservative, but I'm not so sure about why the Qing were so bad about reform

Part of me would argue that the Qing were reactionary due to them being an aristocratic ethnic minority ruling over an overbearingly large population of another ethnicity with no intent on being overthrown by their subjects.
Perhaps if the Qing and its Manchu regime had been confined to Manchuria proper, it would have been more amenable to adapting to its surrounding threats, with a more controllable Han minority confined to Liaoning?