WI no Great Depression?

[Justin Pickard]

What if…no Great Depression?

How?

- no 1929 Stock Market Crash?
- smaller Stock Market Crash in 1928, recovery by 1931/32
- eliminate the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act

Effects?

- eliminates Hitler and the Nazis, many associated dictatorial regimes?
- Weimar Republic still collapses
- Franco-esque moderate conservative ‘junta’ / socialist Germany?
- more reasonable appeasement of Germany
- no WW2
- a "Pacific War" between Japan and a Sino-American alliance,
- an "Eastern War" between Russia and a German-headed alliance.
- no US Democrat Party, stronger American Socialist Movement
- classical liberalism, combined with creeping social democracy
- less education, greater class consciousness
- more theoretical science, less applied
- US loans to Germany
- no ‘New Deal’, Roosevelt?
- longer survival of colonialism

 

[DaSla]

what would happen to prohibition?

 

[Molobo]

eliminates Hitler and the Nazis, many associated dictatorial regimes?

Unlikely.Germany was in grip of military long before depression.Also there was a strong cultural influence of junker Prussia towards authoritarian regime.Nazis started their work before depression also and antisemitsm, the thirst for war was widespread in Germany even without them.

 

[carlton_bach]

Unlikely.Germany was in grip of military long before depression.Also there was a strong cultural influence of junker Prussia towards authoritarian regime.Nazis started their work before depression also and antisemitsm, the thirst for war was widespread in Germany even without them.

But the Nazis were a political joke before the Depression. Without massive unemployment and resentment of the traditional elites, Germany would neither see the massive Communist voting bloc nor the Nazi one that dominated the Reichstag in 1931-33. I don't see this blunting Germany's appetite for revenge or its authoritarian parties, but Hitler and his cronies would be out of the picture.

My prediction is: flip a coin. Heads, it's a democratic government 'muddling through', under attack from left and right, dominated alternately by various right-wing and social democrat parties and slowly managing to cut free of the Versailles treaty while confronting domestic terrorism. Tails, it is a conservative, authoritarian dictatorship with a strong military element forcing through the end of Versailles and running a forceful anti-Soviet policy that may lead to war. If it balances on its edge, 1930s Germany is a stable, peaceful democracy.

 

[Molobo]

Heads, it's a democratic government 'muddling through', under attack from left and right, dominated alternately by various right-wing and social democrat parties and slowly managing to cut free of the Versailles treaty while confronting domestic terrorism. Tails, it is a conservative, authoritarian dictatorship with a strong military element forcing through the end of Versailles and running a forceful anti-Soviet policy that may lead to war.

Ah but the democratic Weimar republic did what the Nazis did already in regards to Versailles treaty:
http://www.feldgrau.com/articles.php?ID=23


“Poland’s existence is intolerable and incompatible with the essential conditions of Germany’s life. Poland must go and will go - as a result of her own internal weaknesses and of action by Russia - with our aid. . . . . The obliteration of Poland must be one of the fundamental drives of German policy . . . . . (and) is attainable by means of, and with the help of, Russia.”

- General von Seeckt, responsible for foreign policy in the Weimar Republic of Germany, writing in 1922

 

[David S Poepoe]

What if…no Great Depression?

How?

- no 1929 Stock Market Crash?
- smaller Stock Market Crash in 1928, recovery by 1931/32
- eliminate the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act

Effects?

- eliminates Hitler and the Nazis, many associated dictatorial regimes?
- Weimar Republic still collapses
- Franco-esque moderate conservative ‘junta’ / socialist Germany?
- more reasonable appeasement of Germany
- no WW2
- a "Pacific War" between Japan and a Sino-American alliance,
- an "Eastern War" between Russia and a German-headed alliance.
- no US Democrat Party, stronger American Socialist Movement
- classical liberalism, combined with creeping social democracy
- less education, greater class consciousness
- more theoretical science, less applied
- US loans to Germany
- no ‘New Deal’, Roosevelt?
- longer survival of colonialism

The 'Great Depression' wasn't because of the 1929 Stock Market Crash, that was the result of several factors already in play, many in Europe.

This seems a rather simplistic view of world history.

"more reasonable appeasement of Germany" - what the hell does that mean?! Britain and France gives Germany Poland without a fight?

"no ‘New Deal’, Roosevelt?" - well, I think there is fairly good evidence that Roosevelt's New Deal actually made the Depression worse in the US - or at least added "Great" to it.

"eliminates Hitler and the Nazis, many associated dictatorial regimes?" - not likely. As mentioned above the Germans, Italians and others were drifting towards such regimes prior to the Depression. I see such events as likely in the aftermath of Great War and the social changes brought about by it.

"no WW2" - extremely unlikely. As mentioned thousands of times elsewhere, the seeds of the Second World War were sown at Versailles.

"a "Pacific War" between Japan and a Sino-American alliance" - maybe. I definately think there will be a collision of interests between Japan and the United States in the Far East, but if there would be any China to align with is another question.

 

[Justin Pickard]

"more reasonable appeasement of Germany" - what the hell does that mean?! Britain and France gives Germany Poland without a fight?

It means that without the Nazis, German demands for rearmament and minor territorial reaquisitions would be viewed as more reasonable by the Allied powers.

"no ‘New Deal’, Roosevelt?" - well, I think there is fairly good evidence that Roosevelt's New Deal actually made the Depression worse in the US - or at least added "Great" to it.

Yes, but without the 1929 Wall Street Crash, Roosevelt's victory in the 1932 presidential election would not be assured, by any means.

"eliminates Hitler and the Nazis, many associated dictatorial regimes?" - not likely. As mentioned above the Germans, Italians and others were drifting towards such regimes prior to the Depression. I see such events as likely in the aftermath of Great War and the social changes brought about by it.

'Drifting' being the operative word - totalitarian regimes held under 10% of the Reichstag in the early 1930s, the only reason their support base got any larger was the percieved inability of the moderate administration to do anything about the problems of the Depression.

"no WW2" - extremely unlikely. As mentioned thousands of times elsewhere, the seeds of the Second World War were sown at Versailles.

What I meant was no WW2 AWKI; without the depression it certainly wouldn't have been a WORLD war, probably a singular European clash between Conservatism and Communism.

-----

Anyway, I was only brainstorming. I was interesting as to what ideas other people would have as to how the 1930s could have turned out without a severe economic crisis.

 

[Molobo]

German demands for rearmament and minor territorial reaquisitions would be viewed as more reasonable by the Allied powers

Second Polish Republic had 388.6 thousand sq. km.-I wouldn't call that minor territorial reaquisition.

 

[Justin Pickard]

Second Polish Republic had 388.6 thousand sq. km.-I wouldn't call that minor territorial reaquisition.

A conservative Germany wouldn't want to regain all of Poland. It wanted the Ruhr Valley to be able to be remilitarized, and possibly a reunification with Austria, ultimately.

 

[Molobo]

A conservative Germany wouldn't want to regain all of Poland

Well both Seeckt and Stresemanndid desire to see Poland gone from map, and I do believe they were conservative German politicians.
Basically all the territories conquered by Prussia during the Partitions of Poland were seen as belonging to Germany, also remember that the idea of Lebensraum isn't Nazi but originated in XIX century and was widely supported in German politics.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebensraum

Lebensraum (from the German for "living space") is an idea that was used to justify the expansionist politics of Nazi Germany.


Origins
The idea of a Germanic people without sufficient space dates back long before Adolf Hitler brought it to prominence: the term Lebensraum was coined by Friedrich Ratzel in the late 19th century, when it was used as a slogan in Germany referring to the unification of the country and the acquisition of colonies, as per the English and French models. Ratzel believed the development of a people is primarily influenced by their geographical situation, and that a people that successfully adapted to one location would proceed naturally to another. This expansion to fill available space, he claimed, was a natural and necessary feature of any healthy species.

These beliefs were furthered by scholars of the day, including Karl Haushofer and Friedrich von Bernhardi. In von Bernhardi's 1912 book Germany and the Next War, he expanded upon Ratzel's hypotheses, and, for the first time, explicity identified Eastern Europe as a source of new space.

Great Depression wasn't the source of WWII-German imperial ambitions were.

 

[SK85]

Avoiding the great depression is much more than the stock market crash. In fact the stock market crash of 1929 was caused by the depression not the other way around. By Black Tuesday the economy was already slowing down. Houses were not being built, too much food was being produced, and factories were making more things than could sell. Avoiding the depression would mean different policies throughout the 1920s.

What helped make the depression worse was that for almost a year after the stock market crash the fed raised interest rates! This is what helped make the depresson even worse to be followed by the moronic Smoot-Hawley tarriffs. I do not know enough about economics to suggest what change in policies needed to be made but do know the Depression was many years in the making.

Also one other effect was that the great depression helped stunt the growth of America's armed forces. With the economy floundering and many blaming World War I for the economic problems in America the politicians were not keen on spending more money on the military. In the early 1930s Congress passed a resolution calling for the US Navy to be brought up to treaty strength but did not provide the funding. In the late 20s Congress called for an increase in the size of the Army Air Corp but did not provide the funding. A world without the great depression might see the United States military slightly stronger than they actually were.

 

[Wendell]

Hoover wins reelection, then is Huey Long beats Al Landon in 1936. Butterfly out Long's assassination, but then where from there?