WI: No Commodore Perry Expedition to Japan?
- Thread starter Laqueesha
- Start date
Then (provided there isn't another American expedition immediately after) Russia probably gets some concessions in Nagasaki with Putyatin's expedition (OTL that same year as Perry's second expedition), then probably sends a larger expedition five years later give or take, and gets preferred nation rights in other ports and maybe Yokohama itself.
This is probably enough to alarm the British and French (and Americans) who will come in with their own brand of gunboat diplomacy, especially so if there is anything like a Crimean war/confrontation as per OTL.
Either way, Japan seems set up for being forced to trade with the Europeans, if not by Americans or the Russians then someone else.
This is probably enough to alarm the British and French (and Americans) who will come in with their own brand of gunboat diplomacy, especially so if there is anything like a Crimean war/confrontation as per OTL.
Either way, Japan seems set up for being forced to trade with the Europeans, if not by Americans or the Russians then someone else.
Ya. After the Second Opium War, I'm surprised the Brits didn't open up Japan to trade as well. I don't think they'd wait long if Perry didn't get there.
IMO. YMMV.
IMO. YMMV.
Something to remember is that Perry was closer to being the straw that broke the Tokugawa camel's back, than the butterfly starting a hurricane.
By this point stuff would likely have happened largely similar, if prehaps a few other players in the tertiary gallery (prehaps as mentioned Putyatin replacing Perry, among others), and if beyond realistic chances Tokugawa manages to fend off the Satchou Alliance in the Boshin War, then another civil war would must likely had come again as soon as the least exhausted daimyo got his breath back. Exact differences between this hypothetical new winner and the Satsuma-Choshou Alliance are hard to guess at, but the overarching ambitions (make Japan sit with a strong hand, making equal treaties with the western world, instead of being maimed by unequal treaties such as China and the rest of Asia were) and their attempts to make it happen, would most likely similar in shape, if not in result (although there is no fundamental reason to believe that Satsuma and Choshou had any reason to be more likely to do it than others).
By this point stuff would likely have happened largely similar, if prehaps a few other players in the tertiary gallery (prehaps as mentioned Putyatin replacing Perry, among others), and if beyond realistic chances Tokugawa manages to fend off the Satchou Alliance in the Boshin War, then another civil war would must likely had come again as soon as the least exhausted daimyo got his breath back. Exact differences between this hypothetical new winner and the Satsuma-Choshou Alliance are hard to guess at, but the overarching ambitions (make Japan sit with a strong hand, making equal treaties with the western world, instead of being maimed by unequal treaties such as China and the rest of Asia were) and their attempts to make it happen, would most likely similar in shape, if not in result (although there is no fundamental reason to believe that Satsuma and Choshou had any reason to be more likely to do it than others).
Why, is there something only Japan can provide or some other pressing reason to not just ignore it?
Russia's been trying very persistently since the 1790s. It's potentially a lucrative market (and so indeed proved to be OTL).
It's also a valuable way of diversifying your Asian trade without stepping on the toes of other Imperial powers in the jostling for Chinese concessions.
At least for America, it was also seen as a possible coaling station for trade to the really rich markets of China. Much like the Philippines later.
China was still difficult to deal with (the Second Opium is still a few years in the future), so a friendly port in the region was definitely a plus. The UK had Hong Kong (although only the island), but everyone else was looking for an "in".
China was still difficult to deal with (the Second Opium is still a few years in the future), so a friendly port in the region was definitely a plus. The UK had Hong Kong (although only the island), but everyone else was looking for an "in".
No, it's that Western powers wanted to be able to trade anywhere, without arbitrary blocks.