WI: No Central Plains War?

[XFE]

In 1930, a group of Northwest-based warlords under Yan Xishan and Feng Yuxiang fought one of China's most destructive civil wars in the Republican Era against Chiang Kaishek. Despite early successes, Northwestern forces quickly disintegrated when Zhang Xueliang's Fengtian Clique intervened on Chiang's side. This civil war, the Central Plains War is often blamed for driving China to the brink of bankruptcy and leaving Fengtian Clique Manchuria open to Japanese takeover.

If the Central Plains War had been adverted--let's say warlords like Li Zongren and Feng Yuxiang agree to disband their forces in return for autonomy from Chiang--could China find itself in a stronger position vis-a-vis Japan? Could Chiang be more able to enforce his rule across China?

 

[raharris1973]

If Fengtian forces remain in place instead of crossing the Great Wall to aid Chiang, they *might* bog down the initial Japanese invaders and higher command and peer commanders do not rallly behind what apppears to be a less than successful venture.

It is more likely than not that the Japanese try something again within five years, and eventually succeed. This is due to the value system of the officers at the time.

China will see less damage and more revenue collection on the Central Plains if the civil war of 1930 is averted. But this does not reliably gain him more control, especially as the option in the OP is for him to compromise to avert the war. Such a compromise probably would not be sustainable in the long run leading to a later analogous civil war.

 

[raharris1973]

In 1930, a group of Northwest-based warlords under Yan Xishan and Feng Yuxiang fought one of China's most destructive civil wars in the Republican Era against Chiang Kaishek. Despite early successes, Northwestern forces quickly disintegrated when Zhang Xueliang's Fengtian Clique intervened on Chiang's side. This civil war, the Central Plains War is often blamed for driving China to the brink of bankruptcy and leaving Fengtian Clique Manchuria open to Japanese takeover.

If the Central Plains War had been adverted--let's say warlords like Li Zongren and Feng Yuxiang agree to disband their forces in return for autonomy from Chiang--could China find itself in a stronger position vis-a-vis Japan? Could Chiang be more able to enforce his rule across China?

What were your thoughts when you posted the OP @Xianfeng Emperor ?

That avoiding this war is an opportunity for China, and Chiang kai-shek, to stand tall and not be kicked around in the 1930s? If Japan is deterred or fought off at the borders, what do both countries, China and Japan, do with themselves through the 1930s?