WI: No big Poujadist breakthrough in 1956

[Nanwe]

Poujadisme was a right-wing populist movement that appeared in France first in 1953 as an anti-tax, anti-economic modernisation movement led by Pierre Poujade and very popular in the south and the west of France, essentially the parts left behind in the country's spectacular economic transformation of the Trente glorieuses. It was mostly formed by artisans and small shopkeepers who deeply disliked the economic concentration policies pursued by the French governments of the 4th (and 5th later on) Republic.

By 1956 it had shed itself of PCF sympathisers and moved to the right, with a very anti-political establishment discourse, but in a different manner from the pre-WWII fascist leagues (it accepted the Republic and democracy, but rejected the political parties and the establishment) and even had some xenophobic, Europhobic and anti-Semitic discourse, particularly when talking about Pierre Mendes France.

Anyway, according to Duverger, the vast majority of voters for the lists of the Movement (UFF) decided their vote on the last week, and as a result, what could have happened if a significant fraction of them had decided to vote for their traditional parties (MRP, modérés and radicaux)? Most of the reports of the prefects expected the party to obtain 2 seats, not 52, but they did underestimate it.

So let's say that instead, the UFF obtains some 10-20 seats, a good number but small. Without their permanent obstructionism and with a much weaker showing, it's likely that the apparentements would have worked. Could it have lead to a centre-right-dominated legislature? How would this have worked out?

 

[Stolengood]

...would you mind first explaining what exactly their breakthrough resulted in IOTL, please? Kinda need that background, bub.

 

[Nanwe]

...would you mind first explaining what exactly their breakthrough resulted in IOTL, please? Kinda need that background, bub.

Well, they tended to just be obstructionist, voted against every government, every bill, every motion of no-confidence, sabotaged public events. So they complicated the governability, but also, as I said without a good result, rather a mediocre one, given how the loi d'apparentements worked, then extra seats (perhaps many) could have been given to the centre-left coalition (Republican Front, formed by SFIO and left-wing radicals) or the centre-right one (Centre-Right, formed by MRP, moderes and right-wing radicals).

 

[Japhy]

Honestly, it seems to me that yes, fourth Republic would have hobbled on for perhaps a bit longer on the domestic front. Of course the problem is that Algeria and the military kind of serves as a giant nullifier on that front. Of course a more stable center-left Government might be able to face down that threat without going for Achilles in his tent.

 

[Nanwe]

Honestly, it seems to me that yes, fourth Republic would have hobbled on for perhaps a bit longer on the domestic front. Of course the problem is that Algeria and the military kind of serves as a giant nullifier on that front. Of course a more stable center-left Government might be able to face down that threat without going for Achilles in his tent.

Actually, if most of the Poujadists had just voted for the regular parties of the rural lower-middle class (Radicals, moderes), then it seems likely there would have been a continuation of the Faure government. So a centre-right one, with people like André Morice, Antoine Pinay, Faure himself and a few others as potential Prime Ministers. But this is important, because a centre-right government would not have appointed Robert Lacoste as Governor-General, but was unlikely to keep the PMF-appointed Soustelle, so whom would it be? It could change the course of the Algerian conflict a lot.

The other matter is that if Poujadists had been less successful politically, I imagine they would not have undergone their political radicalisation (that their main speakers in Parliament were Le Pen and Tixier-Vignancour didn't help) and would have remained more attached to its anti-fiscal, socio-professional populism, so the consequences on the economy would have been interesting.