WI: No Belgian Revolution
- Thread starter Opunium
- Start date
The United Nehterlands will develop in the first and lrgest industrial country on the European continent.
Antwerp will be the largest port of the country and likely of the continent.
John Cockerill will be granted some noble title and will die as the richest steel baron of Europe.
The hart of the country wll be Flanders and Brabant and the South part of Holland. Amsterdam and the rest of the North will lag a bit behind at the end of the 19th century.
During the 2nd halv of the 19th century it is clear that colonies means markets , which is important for the textile and other industry. At least the colonies Suriname and Indonesia will be explored and ''pacified'' faster and most likely the African Gold coast tradepost will be extended inot a larger African colony. Possible some other African and/or Asian colonies, as long as the porpose is increas of markets and acsses to raw materials, and it will not get the Kingdom in direct conflict with other European powers.
Unknown if it will claim a part between the Great Powers or if it will pursue a status of Great Power.
Industry will be coal and iron around Liege, Mons and Charleroi. LArge machine manufacturing around Brussels, which will be most likely the capital. Textile industry in Aalst, Ghent and North Brabant. Largset port will be Antwerp followed by Rotterdam from the 2nd half of the century. The HAgue will be a small town while Amsterdam will fal behind only with a significant stock exchange and banks.
Liberals and in lesser extent Chatholics will be most of the century in charge which will have a Chalvinist reaction from the 1850ties on.
Antwerp will be the largest port of the country and likely of the continent.
John Cockerill will be granted some noble title and will die as the richest steel baron of Europe.
The hart of the country wll be Flanders and Brabant and the South part of Holland. Amsterdam and the rest of the North will lag a bit behind at the end of the 19th century.
During the 2nd halv of the 19th century it is clear that colonies means markets , which is important for the textile and other industry. At least the colonies Suriname and Indonesia will be explored and ''pacified'' faster and most likely the African Gold coast tradepost will be extended inot a larger African colony. Possible some other African and/or Asian colonies, as long as the porpose is increas of markets and acsses to raw materials, and it will not get the Kingdom in direct conflict with other European powers.
Unknown if it will claim a part between the Great Powers or if it will pursue a status of Great Power.
Industry will be coal and iron around Liege, Mons and Charleroi. LArge machine manufacturing around Brussels, which will be most likely the capital. Textile industry in Aalst, Ghent and North Brabant. Largset port will be Antwerp followed by Rotterdam from the 2nd half of the century. The HAgue will be a small town while Amsterdam will fal behind only with a significant stock exchange and banks.
Liberals and in lesser extent Chatholics will be most of the century in charge which will have a Chalvinist reaction from the 1850ties on.
it never was there to start with - government always was located the Hague
Amsterdam is only a ceremonial capital with no government functions this is The Hague. Amsterdam will keep this simbolic function, but most likely the government will chose to stay in Brussles and not move up and down to the Hague every 6 months. This disision will be made to reduce the cost since the governmnt and burocracy will increase during the century and with that the cost of relocating every 6 months. Brussesl is a rela city with all services which are part of a city while The Hague was nothing more than a large town. The economical point of gravity will be in the South so closer to Brussels. By the way the first railroad on the European continent will be openend in 1832 from Brussels to Mechelen/Malinne.
Why would they? Especially as such an action risks a war with both UK and Prussia.
katchen
Banned
ITTL Netherlands will likely expand aggressively in East Indies as soon as it gets East Indies back in 1820. Netherlands will likely take all of Borneo and explore and colonize New Guinea including expedition to interior highlands. Possible expansion to Solomon Islands as well.
In Africa, I see Netherlands attempting to hook up with Dutch Voortrekkers as soon as possible after 1842 by colonizing Walvis Bay in Southwest Africa by 1850. Railroad from Walvis Bay to Johannesburg by 1860. Congo reached from SW Africa before Livingstone. Exploration all the way to Lake Chad.
Expansion from Gold Coast north to Gao and Timbuktu looking for gold fields (Gold Coast has many--well deserves it's name).
In Africa, I see Netherlands attempting to hook up with Dutch Voortrekkers as soon as possible after 1842 by colonizing Walvis Bay in Southwest Africa by 1850. Railroad from Walvis Bay to Johannesburg by 1860. Congo reached from SW Africa before Livingstone. Exploration all the way to Lake Chad.
Expansion from Gold Coast north to Gao and Timbuktu looking for gold fields (Gold Coast has many--well deserves it's name).
Well, I don't know what the exact pretext would be for the war (maybe they could get some kind of guarantee from one or both of the UK/Prussia to stay out - maybe France would pledge neutrality in a Prussian-Austrian war?), but I think French public opinion would definitely be in favor of intervening. In the United Kingdom of the Netherlands, French-speakers were probably only about 20% of the population, so they weren't going to have a lot of influence and probably would have faced significant discrimination. It was a longtime goal of France to expand its borders to the northeast anyway.
To make this happen the policies of William I should be different. William noticed that he couldn't keep the North and the South happy at the same time, despite his best efforts to do so by dividing the state in Dutch or Belgian dominated sectors.
The main reason liberals and Catholics resisted and grew together were the authoritarian ideals of the king. The liberals wanted a democratic regime, and the Catholics wished to regain a privileged status in the system. As both were impossible the Catholics became weary of the state and wished to gain independence from it: the state had to leave the church alone, in other words the Catholics became liberalcatholics.
William needs the support of the elites in the south. He can reach that by putting his plans forward to the Estates General and adapt his plans a little, giving the liberals the idea parliament matters.
The Church will be harder to placate without angering the Protestants, who would refuse any action they saw as an attempt of the Catholic Church to gain power.
Because the Catholics were very concerned about education and also very opposed to state schools the first way to placate them would be allowing catholic schools to take the place they had in previous times, something that would infuriate the protestants. And it would thwart his language ideals, as most likely those catholic schools in Belgium would teach in the French language.
In short terms preventing Catholics from joining with the liberals would be key to keep the kingdom together. On the other hand would preventing the Catholics to transform into liberalcatholics be difficult without alienating the protestants.
Doing nothing will buy the kingdom time, how much, I'm not sure, but the church will remain a huge destabilizing factor. Giving in to the Catholics will make the protestants unhappy. For William this is not a good idea because the protestants have always been faithful to him.
In the end a temporary solution may be found in some sort of complex federal structure.
The main reason liberals and Catholics resisted and grew together were the authoritarian ideals of the king. The liberals wanted a democratic regime, and the Catholics wished to regain a privileged status in the system. As both were impossible the Catholics became weary of the state and wished to gain independence from it: the state had to leave the church alone, in other words the Catholics became liberalcatholics.
William needs the support of the elites in the south. He can reach that by putting his plans forward to the Estates General and adapt his plans a little, giving the liberals the idea parliament matters.
The Church will be harder to placate without angering the Protestants, who would refuse any action they saw as an attempt of the Catholic Church to gain power.
Because the Catholics were very concerned about education and also very opposed to state schools the first way to placate them would be allowing catholic schools to take the place they had in previous times, something that would infuriate the protestants. And it would thwart his language ideals, as most likely those catholic schools in Belgium would teach in the French language.
In short terms preventing Catholics from joining with the liberals would be key to keep the kingdom together. On the other hand would preventing the Catholics to transform into liberalcatholics be difficult without alienating the protestants.
Doing nothing will buy the kingdom time, how much, I'm not sure, but the church will remain a huge destabilizing factor. Giving in to the Catholics will make the protestants unhappy. For William this is not a good idea because the protestants have always been faithful to him.
In the end a temporary solution may be found in some sort of complex federal structure.
katchen
Banned
One thing we may see is more exploration of the interior of the Dutch East Indies a lot sooner, particularly Borneo and New Guinea. If one Dutch explorer can discover the high lake of Enaratoli, then traverse the length of the New Guinea Highlands including the Central Valley around Mt. Hagen, the Dutch will know that the interior of New Guinea is roughly 8000 feet (1.5 km) high, conducive to Dutch and Belgian farmers settling there, and with a sedentary agricultural population, but with large areas of fertile land lying fallow due to longstanding feuds and wars between villages and ethnic groups to boot. Similar areas open to settlement will be found on Suluwesi, but Borneo is a lot lower.
A united and early industrializing Netherlands (Germany did not start to industrialize as a unified nation until after 1870 and France was hampered by it's geography and lack of natural resources) might be inclined to challenge the UK earlier when it comes to the Boers in South Africa, since the Boers are ethnically Dutch, particularly after the Voortrek. I could see a united Netherlands establishing colonies at Walvis and Luderitz Bays, say 1845 and building a railroad across the fringes of the Kalahari Desert to the new South African Republic and Orange Vrystaat by 1850, establishing Dutch protectorates over both (and over their slavery) by then, as well as an additional outlet for Dutch-Belgian colonization. For make no mistake. Colonization will ease a lot of social pressure back home for the Netherlands, just as it does for the UK. And yes, the Dutch will get what we now call Zimbabwe, Zambia and possibly Malawi, Katanga and Kasai OTTL. It's the railroads (and later steam tractors) that make all the difference. Draft animals sicken and die from Sleeping Sickness in Africa. (So do people, but people can protect themselves). This limits travel to on foot with native bearers. With a railroad, one can go lots of places and haul enough freight to make a profit. (You just have to replace the ties often because of the termites or make the ties of reinforced concrete). And tractors can till what fertile soil is available where draft animals will die--good, as soon as steam tractors are developed, which is about the 1880s OTTL., maybe sooner ITTL because they are more needed in Africa).
So the Flemish weavers will continue to provide competition industrially for British weavers, since the Netherlands will be able to produce plenty of cotton. It will be rather hard on the Africans, though, who will start out slaves and end up the equivalent of serfs It may be possible to plant cotton with a steam tractor, but a cotton harvester takes a much higher level of technology, one that was not reached in the US until the late 1930s.
A united and early industrializing Netherlands (Germany did not start to industrialize as a unified nation until after 1870 and France was hampered by it's geography and lack of natural resources) might be inclined to challenge the UK earlier when it comes to the Boers in South Africa, since the Boers are ethnically Dutch, particularly after the Voortrek. I could see a united Netherlands establishing colonies at Walvis and Luderitz Bays, say 1845 and building a railroad across the fringes of the Kalahari Desert to the new South African Republic and Orange Vrystaat by 1850, establishing Dutch protectorates over both (and over their slavery) by then, as well as an additional outlet for Dutch-Belgian colonization. For make no mistake. Colonization will ease a lot of social pressure back home for the Netherlands, just as it does for the UK. And yes, the Dutch will get what we now call Zimbabwe, Zambia and possibly Malawi, Katanga and Kasai OTTL. It's the railroads (and later steam tractors) that make all the difference. Draft animals sicken and die from Sleeping Sickness in Africa. (So do people, but people can protect themselves). This limits travel to on foot with native bearers. With a railroad, one can go lots of places and haul enough freight to make a profit. (You just have to replace the ties often because of the termites or make the ties of reinforced concrete). And tractors can till what fertile soil is available where draft animals will die--good, as soon as steam tractors are developed, which is about the 1880s OTTL., maybe sooner ITTL because they are more needed in Africa).
So the Flemish weavers will continue to provide competition industrially for British weavers, since the Netherlands will be able to produce plenty of cotton. It will be rather hard on the Africans, though, who will start out slaves and end up the equivalent of serfs
It may be possible to plant cotton with a steam tractor, but a cotton harvester takes a much higher level of technology, one that was not reached in the US until the late 1930s.Its fairly easy to save the United Netherlands. The future William II negotiated a settlement based on administrative autonomy for the southern provinces. It was stupidly rejected by William I. Just have William I be less pigheaded and accept the settlement.