WI: Nixon wounded in '68

[sciscisciortino]

What if Nixon has a George Wallace-style assassination attempt in 1968 that doesn't kill him, but renders him unable to campaign, maybe paralyzing him? Assume this takes place a week before the RNC in Miami Beach.

My take: his competition was Reagan and Rockefeller. The western and southern delegates were, obviously, Reagan-leaning without Nixon. However, Nixon didn't trust Reagan intellectually, and while he had chilly relations with Rockefeller, he was, along with Connally, one of the few men Nixon thought had the acumen to be President. Of course, Strom Thurmond and his allies would have conniption fits and probably walk out to endorse Wallace...and the Goldwaterites won't be much happier.

 

[dw93]

What if Nixon has a George Wallace-style assassination attempt in 1968 that doesn't kill him, but renders him unable to campaign, maybe paralyzing him? Assume this takes place a week before the RNC in Miami Beach.

My take: his competition was Reagan and Rockefeller. The western and southern delegates were, obviously, Reagan-leaning without Nixon. However, Nixon didn't trust Reagan intellectually, and while he had chilly relations with Rockefeller, he was, along with Connally, one of the few men Nixon thought had the acumen to be President. Of course, Strom Thurmond and his allies would have conniption fits and probably walk out to endorse Wallace...and the Goldwaterites won't be much happier.

I think if this is the case, Rockefeller is the nominee, although Reagan vs. Rockefeller in 1968 TTL would resemble Reagan vs. Ford in 1976 OTL. The moderate and liberal Republicans (believe it or not they did exist at one point) and the establishment would still have more sway in 1968 than they did from 1980 onwards, and plus with the defeat of Goldwater in '64 still fresh, I doubt the GOP is going to nominate a Goldwaterite (Reagan of '68 was much more conservative that Reagan of 1980) especially one who was only governor of California for less than two years.

As for the general election, with Rockefeller as the nominee, George Wallace does better than he did in OTL, as I think he'd take the entire south. Rocky would do better in the Northeast than Nixon did, so he does slightly better in the electoral college than Nixon did, and maybe a little better in the popular vote to. 1969-1977 goes more or less the way they did in OTL minus Watergate, so Rocky would serve two full terms.

 

[sciscisciortino]

Yeah, Rockefeller is more amenable to working with Nixon than Reagan.

Wouldn't be surprised if Thurmond is Wallace's running mate, though. I don't know if the *whole* South is going Wallace: Thomas Dewey could pick up 35-42% of the white vote in TN and VA twenty years earlier and Rockefeller can garner substantial black support, but the Carolinas are gone, and Florida probably is too. And in Arkansas, his brother Winthrop was building a substantial GOP political machine.

The Goldwaterites will be livid too and there's gonna have to be a moderate to conservative running mate. I think California Senator George Murphy might work.