WI: New York instead of Yorktown?

[Guildencrantz]

I just got back from vacation in Virginia, and I went to go tour the Yorktown Battlefield. In the movie played in the visitor center, it mentions that when planning for 1781, Washington preferred to attack New York, and dislodge Clinton there, but Rochambeau preferred attacking Cornwallis in the South. IOTL, Washington agreed with Rochambeau. But what if Rochambeau agreed with Washington, and the combined Franco-American Army and Navy laid siege to New York? Would the Americans take the city, or would they fail? If they succeed, would the war be over faster, or would it take longer? If they fail, what would happen, would the war be longer and more violent, or would the British just win outright?

 

[Elfwine]

It sounds like a failure scenario.

And at this point, it might see support for continuing the war (by the Americans) crumble.

I don't remember for certain, but if memory serves Rochambeau pointed out some issues with the naval side of things being less likely to work.

Or maybe it was just New York being better defended (as in better fortifications).

 

[Antipater]

There is no way that the British could be blockaded in New York like they were in Yorktown IOTL. The British North American Fleet was headquartered in NY, even if defeated in battle they could just return to the upper harbor and undergo repairs under the guns of coastal batteries.


The army that Washington had at Yorktown (the best trained and armed force he would command during the revolution) could not have taken NY. A serious attempt to do so would have been frustrated from the get-go by the inability of the French to defeat (not merely drive off) the British fleet, which was better trained and led than their French counterparts.


For a siege (an assault would be suicidal) of NY to be even considered, the French would have had to somehow blow the RN fleet out of the water. Washington would then have had to construct hundreds of boats so that his men could cross the Hudson and/or the Long Island Sound. Under heavy fire from the 5-15,000 strong garrison, they would have had to land in present day Brooklyn and Manhattan. Think the Red Army crossing the Volga during Stalingrad.

Even if those forces landed, and gained control of Manhattan, the British would certainly be able to reinforce or evacuate Long Island long before that island would be in danger of falling into enemy hands. It is too big, and posses too many good harbors to be blockaded by the French unless they decided to send their entire fleet across the Atlantic.

 

[Last of the Stuarts]

I would have thought this would have been suicide for the Americans, unless they had 5th columnists active in NY this would have lead to an unwinnable seige.

Assuming that the British Fleet had been driven off like at Yorktown there was still the constant threat they would return, with their marine contingent to perform amphibious attacks.

I can see the Americans being caught between the anvil of NY and the hammer of Cornwallis's army supported by a strong naval force.

The ARW would stop there, as the French would not be able to give more armies or naval units and the Colonial Army would be crushed.