WI: Nelson Rockefeller nominated in 1964?
- Thread starter Tresckow
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Deep South or whole South? And how many states can Rocky win that Goldwater lost?
First of all, this is very unlikely (even without the divorce and remarriage) for reasons I go into at https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wi-rockefeller-64.494995/#post-20951243 As I also state there:
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If Rockefeller were somehow nominated, I have little doubt LBJ would defeat him handily. Of course Rocky would get the votes of many moderate or liberal Republicans who voted for LBJ in OTL. But Wallace would run and get most of Goldwater's OTL vote in the South and even a substantial vote among embittered conservatives in the North and West. Indeed, even apart from a Wallace candidacy, the polls did not show Rockefeller that much stronger a general election candidate than Goldwater:
"Mr. Harris reported that among voters generally President Johnson was favored for re‐election by 52 per cent, while 33 per cent would vote for Mr. Lodge, leaving 15 per cent undecided.
"The next‐best showing in the Harris poll was made by Mr. Nixon. It was indicated that he would attract 32 per cent of the total vote in a race against President Johnson, who would be favored by 61 per cent in such a contest.
"The Harris poll of all voters also showed that President Johnson would defeat Governor Scranton by 61 to 28 per cent, Senator Goldwater by 66 to 26 per cent, and Governor Rockefeller by 69 to 23 per cent." https://www.nytimes.com/1964/04/07/archives/poll-calls-lodge-gops-top-hope.html
One thing to remember is that 1964 was a year of prosperity and peace (people did not think of Vietnam as a full-scale war yet) and that under such circumstances most people did not want the US to have a third president within 15 months. (And some of those who were passionate about voting against LBJ hated him because of civil rights and would have opposed Rocky's stand on that issue ar least as much.) Add to that the fact that no matter who wins the GOP nomination, the GOP will be a very divided party, and it is hard to see the GOP winning or even coming close.
Johnson was kicked off as the Democratic candidate in Alabama and if Rockefeller was the GOP nominee Johnson would have been kicked off of more states ballots in the South with Gov. Wallace replacing Johnson as the Democratic candidate.
In 1948 Strom Thurmond only won in states as the Democratic candidate and not as the State Rights Party nominee.
In 1964 many of the down ballot candidates for the GOP in the South were even more segregationist then the Democratic candidates with Howard "Bo" Callaway being the first GOP Congressman elected in Georgia since Reconstruction and the possibility of more Republicans winning in the South by endorsing Wallace or publicly not supporting the National GOP party nominee Rockefeller.
In my mind there are so many different scenarios that could happen from Rockefeller being shut out of the Electoral College as voters wanting to send a message against Wallace would vote for Johnson in order to not split the Pro-Civil Rights votes to a very narrow victory for Rockefeller if Johnson spends too much time and effort to woe the South.
In 1948 Strom Thurmond only won in states as the Democratic candidate and not as the State Rights Party nominee.
In 1964 many of the down ballot candidates for the GOP in the South were even more segregationist then the Democratic candidates with Howard "Bo" Callaway being the first GOP Congressman elected in Georgia since Reconstruction and the possibility of more Republicans winning in the South by endorsing Wallace or publicly not supporting the National GOP party nominee Rockefeller.
In my mind there are so many different scenarios that could happen from Rockefeller being shut out of the Electoral College as voters wanting to send a message against Wallace would vote for Johnson in order to not split the Pro-Civil Rights votes to a very narrow victory for Rockefeller if Johnson spends too much time and effort to woe the South.
Rocky’s narrow best chance was all in on 1960.
Assuming F. Clifton White is hit by a car hence no Goldwater (or vastly less capable campaign) and Rockefeller doesn’t remarry and doesn’t hesitate than yeah he could take the nomination in the teeth of everyone who hates him. For all the good it would do him as mentioned above.
Assuming F. Clifton White is hit by a car hence no Goldwater (or vastly less capable campaign) and Rockefeller doesn’t remarry and doesn’t hesitate than yeah he could take the nomination in the teeth of everyone who hates him. For all the good it would do him as mentioned above.
I think a Nixonless 1960 (Ike picks a different VP or whatever) is Rockefeller's best shot by far, and I think it's kind of incredible people on here focus so much on the later contests to the exclusion of that.
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GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
Unlike this actual map, 1964 does not turn out to be a re-aligning election with the D’s pro-civil rights and the R’s anti-civil rights. It’s better for civil rights. And it’s better for the country, at least for a good long while.
Recommend we stop around 2011 to avoid current politics.
As far as the possibility of even a semi-serious third party run, it takes a while to gear up. George Wallace only became governor Jan. ‘63, and people’s reaction might be, Oh, he hasn’t been governor that long . . . And Wallace may anticipate this embarrassment and not run, or not run for a hundred other reasons. As far as someone else, the Republican National Convention was held from July 13-16, 1964, and even if the result of Nelson Rockefeller was anticipated for some weeks, still doesn’t leave much time.
Maybe Harry Byrd of the Byrd “machine” in Virginia again, who in 1960 won all of Mississippi’s electoral votes and half of Alabama’s.
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—> Without racism finding an early home in the Republican party, things go better.
(and even if Goldwater himself wasn’t racist, many of his supporters were)
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What would a Lodge vs. Johnson general election look like?
I would imagine there would be a 3rd party segregationist in the south, probably taking at least the Deep South. How many states in the north and west would Lodge be able to take though?
Nelson Rockefeller, as a liberal, would naturally choose a conservative to serve as his vice president. Who are some good candidates for the role?
