WI Napoleon invaded Britain?

[CanveyFanNumberOne]

Obviously in OTL, Britain continued the fight against the French Empire until it's conclusion in 1815. However, what if Napoleon had been able to carry out his plan to invade Britain. The main POD for this is that France wins at Trafalgar and as such the threat of the Royal Navy does not force Napoleon to change his plans regarding the invasion. (This happens due to France having established a better Naval program when napoleon takes charge in 1799 which is the initial POD) Would Britain be capable of continuing the fight successfully? Or would they have to make peace?

 

[RedSword12]

Napoleon probably could win militarily, provided that he has naval superiority, but he would find it hard to keep control once he gets it.

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

GB would surrender, wait 3-4 years, pay off their debt, and then finance another coalition.

Only way they don't is if France completely breaks up GB and forms independent Ireland, Scotland, and Wales

 

[Alternator]

Obviously in OTL, Britain continued the fight against the French Empire until it's conclusion in 1815. However, what if Napoleon had been able to carry out his plan to invade Britain. The POD for this is that France wins at Trafalgar and as such the threat of the Royal Navy does not force Napoleon to change his plans regarding the invasion. Would Britain be capable of continuing the fight successfully? Or would they have to make peace?

A victory at Trafalgar consists of the combined Franco-Spanish fleet escaping, but there's no chance they were going to actually defeat the Royal Navy without a POD years back, which itself would lead to changes that butterfly away Trafalgar.

A better possibility is that the Battle of Copenhagen (either one, but the first is better) turns into a disaster for the British, causing both heavy losses for the Royal Navy and leaving the Danish fleet intact. If future events remain similar to OTL, the Danes will eventually be pressured to join the French, but here they'd still have a mighty navy to add to the French and Spanish fleets.

 

[CanveyFanNumberOne]

OK.

 

[alexmilman]

Obviously in OTL, Britain continued the fight against the French Empire until it's conclusion in 1815. However, what if Napoleon had been able to carry out his plan to invade Britain. The POD for this is that France wins at Trafalgar and as such the threat of the Royal Navy does not force Napoleon to change his plans regarding the invasion. Would Britain be capable of continuing the fight successfully? Or would they have to make peace?

“In August 1805, Napoleon, Emperor of the French since May of the previous year, turned his army's sights from the English Channel to the Rhine in order to deal with the new Austrian and Russian threats.”

Trafalgar happened on October 21st, the same day that the Austrian army surrendered at Ulm, and after this there was Austerlitz campaign closely followed by the War of the 4th Coalition In other words, there were no troops available for the invasion of Britain until 1807 and victory at Trafalgar would not change the priorities. You may need a much earlier POD.

 

[saluto]

Even with Naval Supremacy, actually moving and supplying the Grande Armee across the channel would be very difficult.

 

[Plundenoru]

Even if Napoleon didn't previously abandon the idea, I'm not sure victory at Trafalgar (and I mean complete victory with every RN ship being sank or captured, with minimal french losses) would have achieved naval supremacy, I think the RN would still outnumber the combined Spanish and French fleet, or at least pose a sufficient threat that an invasion would be very risky. And I remember that Britain was improving their coastal defenses because of Napoleon.

 

[CanveyFanNumberOne]

“In August 1805, Napoleon, Emperor of the French since May of the previous year, turned his army's sights from the English Channel to the Rhine in order to deal with the new Austrian and Russian threats.”

Trafalgar happened on October 21st, the same day that the Austrian army surrendered at Ulm, and after this there was Austerlitz campaign closely followed by the War of the 4th Coalition In other words, there were no troops available for the invasion of Britain until 1807 and victory at Trafalgar would not change the priorities. You may need a much earlier POD.

I didn't state that he would invade Britain there and then, rather defeat the Austrian Empire first. With them knocked out of the war (maybe due to a worse Battle of Austerlitz) Russia might have to sue for peace allowing for Napoleon to be able to build a bigger navy to attempt his cross-channel invasion.

Even if Napoleon didn't previously abandon the idea, I'm not sure victory at Trafalgar (and I mean complete victory with every RN ship being sank or captured, with minimal french losses) would have achieved naval supremacy, I think the RN would still outnumber the combined Spanish and French fleet, or at least pose a sufficient threat that an invasion would be very risky. And I remember that Britain was improving their coastal defenses because of Napoleon.

If Napoleon has built a bigger Navy to take them on and doesn't need to have some of his attention in the east, than he could have achieved his plan.

 

[Plundenoru]

I didn't state that he would invade Britain there and then, rather defeat the Austrian Empire first. With them knocked out of the war (maybe due to a worse Battle of Austerlitz) Russia might have to sue for peace allowing for Napoleon to be able to build a bigger navy to attempt his cross-channel invasion.

If Napoleon has built a bigger Navy to take them on and doesn't need to have some of his attention in the east, than he could have achieved his plan.

Well if Russia makes peace with Napoelon then he doesn't really have any reason to invade Britain as the continental system would be in place, altough the effectiveness is another matter.
Regardless, it takes several years to build ships of the line, which Britain would just do the same , furthermore since they also have a better naval tradition and more experienced crews.

 

[CanveyFanNumberOne]

Well if Russia makes peace with Napoelon then he doesn't really have any reason to invade Britain as the continental system would be in place, altough the effectiveness is another matter.
Regardless, it takes several years to build ships of the line, which Britain would just do the same , furthermore since they also have a better naval tradition and more experienced crews.

Wouldn't Britain still have been a threat though? I mean they could place an embargo upon any nation which is part of the system especially given that the British had access to larger amounts of resources in their colonies such as India that would potentially have been vital to the continued economic success of Europe. If these resources are not accessible to Europe and any nation allied with it (after all Britain had no qualms about mining Norwegian waters to stop Hitler's 3rd Reich having access to swedish iron even though Norway was neutral) then surely in the long-term we will merely see what happened to the Soviet's during the 1980's just nearly 200 years earlier?

 

[wwbgdiaslt]

If he did - which relative or General would he install as King. Could we see Bernadotte installed there, or would Eugene accept the British offer after rejecting the Swedish one, or the Duke of Taranto whose father was Scottish?

By the time of a post-trafalgar succession, Taranto would have had three daughters - Charlotte, Elizabeth and Alexandrine. But he wasn't married to any of Bonapartes extended family.

 

[Alstein]

GB would surrender, wait 3-4 years, pay off their debt, and then finance another coalition.

Only way they don't is if France completely breaks up GB and forms independent Ireland, Scotland, and Wales

That's precisely what I think France would do. Independent Ireland and Scotland definitely. I do think the English King keeps his throne of King of England and Wales.

You might see political reforms forced on England.

It would be very tough to do, but if Nappy can land a bunch of the Army, he'd have a shot of winning, provided he was in charge (I suspect it would be Davout though)

 

[Plundenoru]

Wouldn't Britain still have been a threat though? I mean they could place an embargo upon any nation which is part of the system especially given that the British had access to larger amounts of resources in their colonies such as India that would potentially have been vital to the continued economic success of Europe. If these resources are not accessible to Europe and any nation allied with it (after all Britain had no qualms about mining Norwegian waters to stop Hitler's 3rd Reich having access to swedish iron even though Norway was neutral) then surely in the long-term we will merely see what happened to the Soviet's during the 1980's just nearly 200 years earlier?

That was the point of the continental system, to force an embargo on Britain so they would be economically isolate and (hopefully) come to terms with Napoleon, ceasing their embargo. But in reality there was a lot of corruption in the system and Russia dropped out which contributed to a significant amount of trade with Britain.

 

[CanveyFanNumberOne]

Then there would most probably be a trade war like what we are seeing now with America and China. The only difference is that the Colonial empires would be dragged into this war.

 

[Dan Handsome]

The entire RN was not at Trafalgar. Even if the British lose most of their fleet there, then the rest of the fleet which were guarding the channel and attacking French colonies switch from offense to defense and Napoleon's fleet sinks to the bottom of the channel. Everything about this screams ASB to me. The French decisively beating the RN is as unlikely as the British decisively beating the full might of the Grande Armee.

 

[alexmilman]

I didn't state that he would invade Britain there and then, rather defeat the Austrian Empire first. With them knocked out of the war (maybe due to a worse Battle of Austerlitz) Russia might have to sue for peace allowing for Napoleon to be able to build a bigger navy to attempt his cross-channel invasion.

If Napoleon has built a bigger Navy to take them on and doesn't need to have some of his attention in the east, than he could have achieved his plan.

After Austerlitz Austria sued for peace but Russia did not (no reason whatsoever after a single defeat far away from its borders) and Prussia was getting ready for war. As I said, for the next few years Nappy was too busy on a continent to allocate resources for invasion of Britain.

The “east” (plus Spain) during the following years amounted to most of his attention so removing Prussia, Russia and then (again) Austria from a picture would amount to a fundamentally different history in which Britain may not even be a serious factor: if the rest of the continent is voluntarily joining Nappy firming XIX century version of the EU then Britain is pretty much irrelevant.

OTOH, if Trafalgar is the French victory (and somehow the Brits are losing the rest of their navy) and after defeat of the 3rd coalition everything is quite and he lands in Britain, what’s his end game? The Brits are defeated and are suing for peace and what’s next? A permanent French occupation of the islands? Not too realistic. A peace treaty? As soon as Nappy is out, it is going to be violated: Britain, unlike France, had plenty of the naval cadres and could rebuild an effective navy (Nappy kept building it but did not have cadres). A complete destruction of the British industries, etc,? Extremely unlikely. So what’s your plan?

 

[alexmilman]

Wouldn't Britain still have been a threat though? I mean they could place an embargo upon any nation which is part of the system especially given that the British had access to larger amounts of resources in their colonies such as India that would potentially have been vital to the continued economic success of Europe. If these resources are not accessible to Europe and any nation allied with it (after all Britain had no qualms about mining Norwegian waters to stop Hitler's 3rd Reich having access to swedish iron even though Norway was neutral) then surely in the long-term we will merely see what happened to the Soviet's during the 1980's just nearly 200 years earlier?

Well, this is a rather abstract schema ignoring the facts. And the fact is that in the early XIX Russia had a positive trade balance with Britain, being a major supplier of the raw materials including those needed for the navy (timber, hemp, flax, iron, etc.) and, sorry, not easily available in India. Britain was also a major consumer of the Russian grain. The British imports had been mostly consumed by the upper class and amounted to the “luxury items”. Strictly speaking, during the time within the CS Russia saw active development of its manufacturing industry (no British competition) and the lower classes benefited from the lower bread prices. The trick was that CS was hurting the upper classes by removing a major importer of their goods and a major carrier of these goods to other countries (while British trade amounted to less than 30% of the Russian exports, most of these e ports had been carried by the British ships). And unhappy upper classes had at that time a very unpleasant way to demonstrate their unhappiness to the ruler: Alexander knew very well how alliance with France and embargo on British trade ended for his father. So, objectively, Russia was siding with Britain because theirs (as in “ruling classes”) interests had been coinciding and as a result Russia was an objective threat to Napoleon’s regime and not just a British puppet.

 

[MiniaAr]

Independent Scotland with a strong (huge) French garrison stationned here would be the ideal way to deal with it: the English get a massive sword of Damocles on their head, forcing them to comit to a strong army and thus reducing financing of the Navy, helping the French in a whoe lot of theaters.
Presumably the Scots could on board with it, if the local elite gets at least nominal power and the French "protection" army behaves not too badly. But it might not last long.

 

[CanveyFanNumberOne]

After Austerlitz Austria sued for peace but Russia did not (no reason whatsoever after a single defeat far away from its borders) and Prussia was getting ready for war. As I said, for the next few years Nappy was too busy on a continent to allocate resources for invasion of Britain.

The “east” (plus Spain) during the following years amounted to most of his attention so removing Prussia, Russia and then (again) Austria from a picture would amount to a fundamentally different history in which Britain may not even be a serious factor: if the rest of the continent is voluntarily joining Nappy firming XIX century version of the EU then Britain is pretty much irrelevant.

OTOH, if Trafalgar is the French victory (and somehow the Brits are losing the rest of their navy) and after defeat of the 3rd coalition everything is quite and he lands in Britain, what’s his end game? The Brits are defeated and are suing for peace and what’s next? A permanent French occupation of the islands? Not too realistic. A peace treaty? As soon as Nappy is out, it is going to be violated: Britain, unlike France, had plenty of the naval cadres and could rebuild an effective navy (Nappy kept building it but did not have cadres). A complete destruction of the British industries, etc,? Extremely unlikely. So what’s your plan?

Have Britain remain at a naval stalemate while forcing Russia out of the war (maybe through using the Ottomans or Persia to keep them occupied long enough to deal with Prussia then marching east into Russian Poland.) When Russia gives up switch economy into one geared up towards naval warfare and attempt to block Britain off from her colonies to the point where she has almost no resources to build ships with whereas you will still have access to Europe's resources. Then use the Navy to make a diversion (potentially towards Newcastle or Hull). If Britain falls for it than deploy the Grand Armee across the channel towards the south coast and Kent. If not then utilise the northern invasion as an anvil upon which to smash the remnants of the British Army until they give up.