Well, you certainly can't be accused of evincing too much concern...nevertheless, take care and come back for more...
Thanks everyone. I should only be out of commission for a few days.
@Draconis my history of this (Spontaneous Collapsed Lung) has actually prevented me from getting my FAA Medical. Good news is that three months after the surgery I can be elligable to get it and can finally start my pilot training.
Regarding what is about to happen in the TL: yes, this particular butterfly is like Mothra. I won't bog everything down with the naval action but we will see some of its result after the fact. One thing to keep in mind is that with TF 34 not arriving on scene untill 1000, Kurita's Center Force will still hit the Taffys and Lee's battleline will catch it as it is withdrawing. Also, ITTL there is a lot more awareness around Center Force so Taffy-3 will know they are coming and can prepare accordingly.
@Draconis my history of this (Spontaneous Collapsed Lung) has actually prevented me from getting my FAA Medical. Good news is that three months after the surgery I can be elligable to get it and can finally start my pilot training.
Regarding what is about to happen in the TL: yes, this particular butterfly is like Mothra. I won't bog everything down with the naval action but we will see some of its result after the fact. One thing to keep in mind is that with TF 34 not arriving on scene untill 1000, Kurita's Center Force will still hit the Taffys and Lee's battleline will catch it as it is withdrawing. Also, ITTL there is a lot more awareness around Center Force so Taffy-3 will know they are coming and can prepare accordingly.
The last update will hold me (I've gotten a bit behind
), so no worries. Get well soon.Thx for the thought. You do recall correctly. It's not about the search engine, it's about the age of the Mac I'm using, which in computing terms qualifies as a museum piece by now.
I hate to start with a complaint, but that's what it is. Halsey didn't answer to or even recognize that nickname; I suspect it was a misprint in a news story, & it stuck.
Excellent work, as always. (Does that get old?
) I like the insights into radar intercepts, & radar operations. I'm going to echo tomo pauk: good information, easily understood because it was so well-presented--but more than that, it didn't feel like a textbook: it felt real.What he did know, based on a captured plan (provided to him by ONI), was that Ozawa's CVs were nothing but a decoy. He fell for it.
I must confess, it's been too long since I read an account of the TF34 fiasco to know, so let me ask: how much changed is the outcome?
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Hey all! I got back home from the hospital yesterday and am resting and recovering well at home. Four new holes between my ribs (all closed and healing now of course), a few extra staples in my lung and all that but otherwise none the worse for wear. Thank you for all of the well wishes.
IOTL, TF34 was formed at 0226 and at 0253 ordered to steam 10nm ahead (to the north) of the carrier task forces to come within surface engagement range of the Japanese carriers at dawn. They never came in contact of the enemy and continued north long after the infamous "The World Wonders" message from Nimitz to Halsey was received. At 1115 TF34 was all the way up at 18N 126E (about 320nm away from the NE entrance of S.Bern. Strait) when it was finally ordered to reverse and attempt to intercept the Center Force before they could escape. They were still trying to move south at 1622 when the fastest group of ships (the Iowas and their support) were separated and ordered direct to San Bernardino Strait at 24 knots but by then it was too late and Kurita was long gone.
The full report of the TF34 "action" (or lack-thereof) can be found in the REPORT OF OPERATIONS OF TASK FORCE THIRTY-FOUR DURING THE PERIOD 6 OCTOBER 1944 TO 3 NOVEMBER 1944.
ITTL, they are in the same location (about 15.2N 126E) at 0250-ish when they are formed as IOTL but instead of steaming north for another 8 hours, immediately reverse direct to San Bernardino--only about 170nm away. If they make the same initial cruise as TF 34 did IOTL on their initial sortie south of 20 knots, it will take them about 8 hours to the entrance of San Bernardino--between Center Force and their route of escape. Assuming Kurita acts the more-or-less the same as he did IOTL but faced with a better prepared and more organized American defense in the Tafffys (which he already thought were fleet carriers and he was convinced the American Battleline had to be nearby), I think it is reasonable he will still retire early from his attack and attempt an escape, ITTL. His biggest trouble then will be that right around the time he his organizing his escape back to the north, TF34 will be arriving on station and the two surface fleets will run right into each other around noon (that is just an estimate, I am working on exact timings and movement plans still).
I think this is quite likely in the "mop-up" attacks that will make up Part 3. With the Navy being largely spent (in fuel and ordnance) by the battles of Oct 24/25 I think it is very likely that Mac and Kenny will use the Lightnings long legs to keep the pressure on. This is made even more plausible by the fact that IOTL Tacloban AF was opened to the AAF by Oct 27, after landing many of Taffy-3's Aircraft during the 25th. ITTL It is very possible that the increased air support and shift in patrol load could help move the timetable for fully securing the area by a day or even two, meaning the P-38s may be able to make a one-way, heavily laden trip from Morotai to attack the fleet and land on Leyte as early as evening of the 25th but more likely morning of of the 26th. After which, they can take over much of the patrol and CAS from the Navy for a time.
I was aware of that, actually. I included the one reference to "Bull" in the narrative during his introduction because that is how many of the average readers would know him. As far as I recall, I did not ever use the nickname again and he is never addressed as such in any way in the story. Please, though, if you find a second use of the name--outside his narrative introduction--let me know so I can clean it up!
Well, I haven't worked out the full details of the full effect of the change quite yet (i.e. which ships are lost/damaged and to what extent, etc) but have a vague idea--which may be sufficient for our needs from the Lighting pilots' point of view.
IOTL, TF34 was formed at 0226 and at 0253 ordered to steam 10nm ahead (to the north) of the carrier task forces to come within surface engagement range of the Japanese carriers at dawn. They never came in contact of the enemy and continued north long after the infamous "The World Wonders" message from Nimitz to Halsey was received. At 1115 TF34 was all the way up at 18N 126E (about 320nm away from the NE entrance of S.Bern. Strait) when it was finally ordered to reverse and attempt to intercept the Center Force before they could escape. They were still trying to move south at 1622 when the fastest group of ships (the Iowas and their support) were separated and ordered direct to San Bernardino Strait at 24 knots but by then it was too late and Kurita was long gone.
The full report of the TF34 "action" (or lack-thereof) can be found in the REPORT OF OPERATIONS OF TASK FORCE THIRTY-FOUR DURING THE PERIOD 6 OCTOBER 1944 TO 3 NOVEMBER 1944.
ITTL, they are in the same location (about 15.2N 126E) at 0250-ish when they are formed as IOTL but instead of steaming north for another 8 hours, immediately reverse direct to San Bernardino--only about 170nm away. If they make the same initial cruise as TF 34 did IOTL on their initial sortie south of 20 knots, it will take them about 8 hours to the entrance of San Bernardino--between Center Force and their route of escape. Assuming Kurita acts the more-or-less the same as he did IOTL but faced with a better prepared and more organized American defense in the Tafffys (which he already thought were fleet carriers and he was convinced the American Battleline had to be nearby), I think it is reasonable he will still retire early from his attack and attempt an escape, ITTL. His biggest trouble then will be that right around the time he his organizing his escape back to the north, TF34 will be arriving on station and the two surface fleets will run right into each other around noon (that is just an estimate, I am working on exact timings and movement plans still).
To come back to address an older comment,
While I would generally agree, I hope my in-narrative solution from this latest chapter was plausible and acceptable. The basic idea was to prompt Nimitz to contact Halsey early enough to a) keep TF34 within an adequate striking range to intercept Center Force, b) have the message be sent and/or received by different radio operators (due to a change of Watch) thereby changing the likely selected padding and its proper removal (i.e. get rid of "The World Wonders"); and c) give Halsey no choice but to appease his superiors in such a way that he would be able to spin any failure as theirs and not his.
I think I achieved what I set out to in an acceptably convincing way.
While I would generally agree, I hope my in-narrative solution from this latest chapter was plausible and acceptable. The basic idea was to prompt Nimitz to contact Halsey early enough to a) keep TF34 within an adequate striking range to intercept Center Force, b) have the message be sent and/or received by different radio operators (due to a change of Watch) thereby changing the likely selected padding and its proper removal (i.e. get rid of "The World Wonders"); and c) give Halsey no choice but to appease his superiors in such a way that he would be able to spin any failure as theirs and not his.
I think I achieved what I set out to in an acceptably convincing way.
@EverKing. Glad to hear you got through your procedure OK. Sounds like you'll be back on your feet in no time. But don't chop any firewood for the next little while.
I see that you have used the greater utility of TTLs' P-38s and their longe range to provide a couple more sighting reports of the IJN Centre Force. Just enough to convince Admiral Halsey to deploy TF 34 earlier. A quite reasonable and plausible event IMO.
I see that you have used the greater utility of TTLs' P-38s and their longe range to provide a couple more sighting reports of the IJN Centre Force. Just enough to convince Admiral Halsey to deploy TF 34 earlier. A quite reasonable and plausible event IMO.
Seconded.
I'd agree, it was well-handled, & IMO (as Draconis says), reasonable & plausible. (Which isn't something I ever expected to say in ref MacArthur.
)The narrative doesn't seem to allow for it (unless I've missed something), but it might be enough to overcome the confusion resulting from the sub reports, which (IMO) misled Halsey OTL. Enough (maybe) to pesuade him to take another option: wait for the Japenese to come to him, defeat both forces in detail, & then go after Ozawa. (That does seem to run contrary to Halsey's nature, & to his OTL actions: he had the intel to suggest this was the correct call, & he didn't make it.) Do P-38 reports TTL "tip the balance"?
I sholuld have known better.
I take the view perpetuting falsehoods or mistakes, however common, is a bad idea: better to try & stamp them out where possible. (And I found no more Bull, of any kind.
{Bet you didn't know he had two ships named for him, didja? })
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Well, my original hope was that, yes, the P-38 contact reports would "tip the balance." But the more research I did the more I discovered that elements of 3rd Fleet were well aware of Center Force's position and disposition through most of the relevant time period and that all of the needed information was already being fed to New Jersey's CIC but that Halsey was either not receiving all of them (he later claimed the messages were all coming in "at random" and "out of order") or was was ignoring. My interpretation after reading several contemporary accounts and after action reports, etc. is that Halsey did, indeed, know about Center Force but chose to completely ignore it for the greater glory of destroying the last the IJN Carriers. His later claims that the damage reports from 10/24 led him to conclude that this force was essentially combat ineffective, to me, read more like "CMA" excuses than anything.
Anyway, the point it is, that a few extra reports from the P-38s--which I figured would be less biased than the reports of the men who actually made the attacks--should have been enough to help sway him, but Halsey being Halsey it really wasn't.
What it did accomplish, however, was keeping MacArthur (and therefore Kinkaid, who was directly under Mac's Command for the operation) informed of the situation. This avoided the surprise moment of OTL when Taffy-3 suddenly discovered Kurita's fleet at dawn. It also allowed me to use Mac to pull a little rank reach out to Nimitz directly (Mac and Halsey both reported directly to Nimitz, but Kinkaid reported to Mac), which was a swift kick the pants to get things moving a few hours earlier.
The possibility of parking the Carriers to the NE of San Bernardino, leaving TF34 to guard the Strait, and used the combined Carrier Air Groups to provide cover to both (with attack groups and minimal escort going North, and enough Fighter CAP to keep Lee safe from land-based EA from Luzon) is, in my opinion likely the best option. It affords maximum coverage and flexibility in the use of the assets on hand. Again, though, as you pointed out, Halsey is Halsey and this was never going to happen even ITTL. The only only way I could see such a tactic being applied would be if the rotation of Spruance and Halsey were switched or Halsey was otherwise unable to take command of 3rd Fleet during Leyte so it was instead Spruance with 5th Fleet (same ships and personnel, difference command staff and designation). I think Spruance would see his first duty as one to protect the landings and would play it in the way that would best ensure he meets that need.
Not that Halsey's idea to use his full force to crush each enemy fleet separately was a bad one. Just that all of the real intelligence he had access to should have led him to focus down Center Force first as the major threat to the Operation as a whole instead of abandoning Leyte to chase what he should have known were practically ghost ships.
Yeah, I see your point and don't disagree. But the truth is that although he never used the nickname "Bull" doesn't make it any less an appropriate moniker for him. We would still introduce Thomas J. Jackson as "Stonewall" even though he never used the name for himself.
Sorry if this post was a little rambley, it is my first day back at work and I am more worn out than I thought I would be.
I have added a slight edit/clarification to the end of 38(b): Leyte of the Night. I had forgotten, when I wrote Halsey's last part, that IOTL when he finally formed TG 34 (to go hunt the carriers) he included more ships from TG 38.3 beyond what he had specified in the initial orders from 10/24 @ 1512 local. The corrected and clarified portion now reads:
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Slight nitpick, but in the WW2-era phonetic alphabet, "E" would be "Easy", not "Echo"
I'd consider that a legitimate flaw and worthy of correction--more than a nitpick in any case. Brain-fart I guess. I'll go fix it tomorrow.
Making some headway on the conclusion of Leyte. Working out some details and need to iron out some logistics then get the prose assembled.
Welcome back to the game. Good hearing you're better again. (I hate being sick. )
)
On the "best option", I entirely agree, Halsey'd never have taken it, & Spruance almost certainly would've. Spruance had that ability to be coldly calculating that I admire. He didn't lack nerve, but it was always tempered with good sense. I'm reminded of my F1 fan days: Halsey as Senna, Spruance as Prost; Halsey makes better headlines, but Spruance wins fights (& wars) for you. So, as I'd have picked Prost, being team owner, as CinCPac, I'd want Spruance. (Yeah, I can't help but go back to a racing parallel. )
I'm not sure Spruance's POV would (necessarily) have differed, I just think he'd see the split IJN forces as what they were: opportunities to defeat each in detail as they came; he didn't need to throw his whole strength at any one of them, just wait for them to come to him--in much the same way as at Midway. Only here, he was even better informed, & had much, much more fighting power at hand.
Am I disagreeing with you? I don't think so, except semantically.
)Don't apologize. I like the insight into your thinking. Yes, Bull would be apt (& your characterization of him fits my view, too: he didn't let the facts get in the way); your comparison to Jackson is interesting, & a view I hadn't considered. Bravo for making me think again. (I still wouldn't use Bull, myself. I'm also bullheaded.
)On the "best option", I entirely agree, Halsey'd never have taken it, & Spruance almost certainly would've. Spruance had that ability to be coldly calculating that I admire. He didn't lack nerve, but it was always tempered with good sense. I'm reminded of my F1 fan days: Halsey as Senna, Spruance as Prost; Halsey makes better headlines, but Spruance wins fights (& wars) for you. So, as I'd have picked Prost, being team owner, as CinCPac, I'd want Spruance. (Yeah, I can't help but go back to a racing parallel.
)I'm not sure Spruance's POV would (necessarily) have differed, I just think he'd see the split IJN forces as what they were: opportunities to defeat each in detail as they came; he didn't need to throw his whole strength at any one of them, just wait for them to come to him--in much the same way as at Midway. Only here, he was even better informed, & had much, much more fighting power at hand.
Am I disagreeing with you? I don't think so, except semantically.
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