How does it ultimately affect the Middle East?
Dependant on the nature of peace with the Ottomans i think.
Are you suggesting annexation of the Rhineland?
Well, natural borders of France and all that. They wanted it OTL but obviously Britain and the US were not that interested. ITTL France will be less damaged by a shorter war but the desire to stick it to Germany will still be there, and if Russia takes the place of the US at the negotiations, then they have an ally in the idea, as Russia will be nearly as interested in putting Germany down a bit.
Both of which are good annexations and the Armenian Genocide is prevented, question is however who gets Constantinople?
Good question, it is almost as plausible that the Ottomans get to keep it if they bow out early. And ultimately it will be Britain that decides as they actually will have the place. Regardless, someone is getting pissed off.
Well Croatia was loyal to the Habsburgs for a very long time. If the AH get out early as an intact political entity, i could see them keeping most of it. They may lose some of the Dalmatian coast to Serbia and Italy.
Could we see a Greek-Bulgarian War?
Would the Greeks get what they want out of Anatolia?
Yeah i could see it, especially if either end up with bits of Thrace the other wants. Of course Greece has lots of other stuff they want as well, and they could well be sated by the bits they do get rather than going for it all. Greek moves on Anatolia though will be dictated by the nature of the Ottoman exit from the war. If the Entente force the straights and threaten Constantinople the Ottomans may well call for a ceasefire and end up keeping rather more than they did historically. For example the French long had an interest in the Levant so they may get Lebanon, and the British get Palestine and southern Iraq, probably as part of an Arab client state, but the Ottomans keep Syria and Northern Iraq to get them out of the war. Or the Ottomans could totally fall apart and the Entente could promise Megali to the Greeks to get them in, Thrace to Bulgaria, and so on, and the Turks are reduced to a rump worse than OTL. It could be very ugly.
How is the German Colonial Empire split between Britain and France?
Would South Africa want German SW Africa?
Something approximating OTL i think, although East Africa as a sop to German pride due to Lettow Vorbeck is i think possible. Certainly South Africa would want German SW Africa
A International Mandate between Russia, Greece and Bulgaria maybe?
Possibly, although as above the Ottomans could end up keeping it too with demilitarization and free passage of the straights. Anything that makes no one happy is the probable solution.
Could we see a British-German alliance and a French-Russian one?
Certainly the French and Russians will remain allied for the foreseeable future. The British may well drift to Germany if Germany remains "stable".
Enough to cause WW2 though?
Probably not. The only one of those countries with a real interest in overturning the war result will be Germany, and unlike Britain-France in OTL, France-Russia in this one have the power, and more importantly, the will, to keep them in line. I don't see Britain going to war on behalf of Germany to overturn the Alt Versailles order. It is plausible that the underlying issues in Russian society result in upheaval, and Germany is able to get loose so to speak.
I don't have high hopes for AH, what about German Austria?
Well the Habsburgs were pretty resilient. If the army is still intact and Karl makes a separate peace, they will lose a bunch of peripheral bits that caused trouble anyway, and keep the parts of the empire that were pretty loyal, with the exception of Hungary, which if it gets transylvania stripped away is fairly weakened. Federalization would have to occur i think, but the Czechs, Slovaks, Slovenes would be in favour of it. And the victorious powers( Russia), would want to preserve the Empire to certain degree for stability, and to balance Germany.
So Britain could form a close relationship with Germany? Well it would prevent the rise of German Nationalism for sure.
Certainly possible. I assume you mean national socialism here.
Well Alt Hist is a blank canvas. Any reasonably plausible result is possible. Some are more likely than others but there really isn't a right answer.
So an Austria-Hungray that retrenches, liberalizes, and reforms, lasting unitl the 21st century is just as plausible in this scenario, given the POD we have, as one that breaks up. Up to the writer. If people don't like your story they won't read it. It is why i only got halfway through "Marching through Georgia", before tossing it in the fireplace.
