WI Mussolini Had Libyan Oil In the 1930s?

Rattenfänger von Memphis

Rattenfänger von Memphis

Donor
(I've done several searches here and have not come across this particular topic so if I've overlooked an already existing thread it was not intentional and I'm sorry for any duplication)

The Italian colony of Libya was little more than a vast desert wasteland during the time of Italian rule 1912-1943. The discovery of vast quantities of oil in the 1950s transformed Libya into a wealthy state.

But what if this Libyan oil had been discovered while Mussolini was the dictator of Italy, how would this have changed history?

During OTL, Rumania's Ploesti oil fields were invaluable to the Axis Powers, providing, according to Google searches, up to anywhere from 1/4 to 1/3 of their oil needs.

Rumania's highest contribution to the Axis was approximately 13 million barrels of oil per year for the years 1941, 1942 and 1943 out of a total average production of roughly 26 million barrels of oil per year.

By contrast, Libya tremendously dwarfs Rumania's output by producing 1.4 million barrels of oil per day.

I'm not certain of any tell-tale difference between Rumania's oil and Libya's oil so I'm assuming here that Libyan oil could have been just as adequate as Rumanian oil.

But would an oil-rich Mussolini have changed history in any significant way?
Rumania's oil wealth did not save that country from being conquered and partitioned by the Axis but would the same fate have befallen Italy?

Mussolini resented being a junior partner to Hitler so this oil wealth could potentially have leveled the playing field. Germany economically dominated most of eastern Europe before World War II so perhaps Italy could have been a real rival by judiciously using her oil wealth to woo these states into her sphere of influence.

Would Mussolini have even allied with Hitler? Would England and France have made greater efforts to keep Italy friendly to them? Certainly if Italy still in this ATL invaded Ethiopia the threat of oil sanctions by the League of Nations would have no effect on an oil-rich Italy.

If Italy did side with Germany, her Libyan oil fields would have been a very easy target to bomb, very unlike the almost inaccessible (until 1943) Ploesti oil fields.
 

Riain

Banned
Even if only a portion of Libyas later oil output was reached during the 30s it would be a boon for Italy. Italy was desperately short of energy resources, but domestic oil would help solve that problem. The oil industry could energise the entire Italian economy, especially in the poorer south and in Libya itself. And any addition of oil to the Axis cause is a bonus.
 

Homer

Given Lybian oil I think Axis strategies (if Italy and Germany form such an alliance that is) would be significantly different.

Lybia ITTL would be one of the most important regions in the Mediterranean and of immense importance for both Germans and Italians. Thus I think Hitler would a lot earlier deploy an Africa-Corps defending Libya against Britain and France, and Britain would concentrate on conquering Lybia to cut the Nazis off their oil ressources. Thus the battles in North Africa and the Mediterranean would be a lot larger than OTL.
 

Wozza

There are several potential changes.


1. France and Britain may take more care to keep Italy's friendship in the 30s, thus avoiding WW2 altogether.

2. More likely 30s diplomacy will continue much as OTL. Italy will most likely still be neutral on the outbreak of war.

3. In the 39-40 period see a lot of Allied planning to pre-emptively seize/destroy the oil a la Norway (but for iron ore transit) and Baku. This may precipitate a different Italian entry to the war, or it may not.

4. Mussolini will probably resist early German intervention in Africa. Assume that the British offensive in Cyrenaica in 1940 happens OTL before German intervention is requested.
The British will then face the OTL dilemma of Tripoli or Greece. They may well choose Tripoli this time, and will probably win even with some German advance units in the field.
 

Prinz Richard Eugen

I can see Italy as needing a larger navy and merchant marine to get the oil to Italy under wartime conditions, not to mention a larger and more modern air force to protect ihe oil fields. More Italians would have been living in North Africa and therefore would be available for service there. The revenue for these increases woulld come from the sale of part of this oil before the war begins. Italian industry can't use all this production. 1.4 million barrels per day equals 200,000 tons per day or 70 million tons per year - triple that of Rumania.
 

orion900

The Oil Wells in Libya are deep ones...

The Italians would need deeper oil equipment for the wells in Libya, not much of a problem, because they could receive it from the Oil Companies in the USA, if Italy doesn't invade in other nations. What about the Spain's civil War? How does Italy receive the deep well equipment?

Second Problem, there was a little thing call a Depression going around the World in the 1930's and I believe that may decrease the need for oil from Italian Libya. Also how would the oil supplies aid Italian industry, without more foreign capital? Also would a ready source of energy next to Central Europe, allow the Axis Nations to move faster, more trucks and planes. Hit harder with more tanks or moblie units, now that energy is available?

Thanks for the thread.....

Orion
 

Viriato

Well perhaps if the Italians had spent their energies looking for oil in Libya instead of in East Africa they could have found oil there.

Interestingly, the Italians were convinced that Ethiopia was rich in minerals the Italian state spent quite a bit of money searching for oil and other minerals in their new colony. There were signs that there were oil in Libya as early as 1940, however by that time the war had started.

Oil was one of the major missing component of Mussolini's economic system based on "autarchia" (self-sufficiency). Having oil pumping by the 1930s would have helped the overall economy a great deal.
 

Riain

Banned
Italy spent a lot of money importing coal and oil from abroad, if it had its own oil it would be spending this money at home with obvious benefits for the economy. What was the early output from the Libyan fields? This would be comparable to any 30s output.
 

Homer

Given discovery of oil in Libya in the twenties or early thirties, I think cheap oil in Libya plus fascist theories of autarcy would mean a significant economic boom in Italy even throughout the Great Depression. In 1940, Italy would certainly have more than enough transports, planes, navy and supply lines to defend Libya and carry oil to Europe, and Libya would be well fortified as one of the most important parts of Italy with probably Thousands of Italian immigrants by then.

Thus when WWII starts, the Italians are a lot better equipped than OTL. Furthermore, if Italy joins Germany, conquering Libya would be the most important goal of Britain and France. Generals on both sides will state that the war will be won or lost in Libya, thus any campaigne in Libya would be significantly different to OTL: The Italians would be alot better equipped and the Germans would be alot more willing to help the Italians in North Africa with alot more troops and equipment. We're not talking about the Afrikacorps, we're talking about a Heeresgruppe Africa, or maybe more, with the benefit of a decade of armament by Italy with the main goal of securing Libyan oil.
 

Kabraloth

It would also raise the question if Germany wouldn't pressure Italy to stay neutral (even chopping off parts of France) to keep its oil supply secure until the British have been dealth with.
 

Homer

Kabraloth said:
It would also raise the question if Germany wouldn't pressure Italy to stay neutral (even chopping off parts of France) to keep its oil supply secure until the British have been dealth with.
Click to expand...

Strategically interesting, but hard to believe.

War is a central theme in fascist states. "Survival of the fittest", fight for your destiny and the like. So I think if Italy is better equipped ITTL, they'd join the war right from the start.
 

orion900

Increase spending on ship building, maybe more battleships? Would try and build bases on border with Egypt?
 

Riain

Banned
Oil would pay for railways to connect the main cities in Libya, and the railway would solve Rommels supply problems.
 

LordKalvan

Oil was actually discovered in Libya by Ardito Desio, an Italian geologist who was very active in the esploration and the mapping of Libya from 1926 to 1940. Pity that it was already 1938, and that the first oil wells were located at the oasis of Marada, and not in the main basin of the Sirtis.
Exploration and drilling in the Sirtis was actually started by AGIP (Italian State Oil Company) in 1932, again upon recommendation of Desio. The perforation were unfortunately unsuccessful, since the Sirtis oil is quite deep: the drilling technology employed by AGIP could not go deep enough.

A link to Ardito Desio life is here: http://www.speitaly.org/pages/past/DESIO spe_3_2004.pdf

Assuming that deep well technology is available in the 1930s (which I don't know. The Libyan oil wells became productive in the 1950s: considering that there was a war in between, let me assume that Sirtis oil is not beyond the limits of 1930s technology) a POD is quite easy to find: Italo Balbo became governor of Libya in 1933. This is the same guy who in the 1930 and 1931 commanded the transatlantic flights, and had quite a number of connections in the USA. And again, he's the man who put Desio in charge of all mineral researches in Libya in 1936.

In TTL Desio is appointed by Balbo in 1933, and a new attempt is made to explore the Sirtis, this time involving one or another of the major american oil companies in JV with AGIP. In TTL oil is found in 1935 (best, since it might even butterfly away Ethiopia) or in 1936. Even better, this time it's not just a few piddling wells at Marada oasis, but a major oil discovery. By 1938 the wells are in production, and a major refinery is being planned in Libya (for the time being the crude oil is exported).

IMHO, this would change a lot of things, including the relative weight of Italy in Europe and Mussolini's priorities (not to mention the relations with USA, UK and France). There would be no need to rely on Germany, and even less incentive in going to war on its side.
 
Rattenfänger von Memphis

Rattenfänger von Memphis

Donor

LordKalvan

Rattenfänger von Memphis said:
Thanks esl (and LordKalvan too). I wish I had found this thread before I started this one. I enjoyed reading both of y'all's posts there (and here). Desio is quite an interesting guy.
Click to expand...

He is, isn't he? a kind of Indiana Jones of geologists :D
Funny thing, he really found the oil: as usual, one day late and one dollar short
 

pacifichistorian

Banned
Homer said:
Given discovery of oil in Libya in the twenties or early thirties, I think cheap oil in Libya plus fascist theories of autarcy would mean a significant economic boom in Italy even throughout the Great Depression.
Click to expand...
Maybe not. IIRC, there was a glut in '30s, as demand disappeared due to the drastic drop in production due to the Depression.
Homer said:
In 1940, Italy would certainly have more than enough transports, planes, navy and supply lines to defend Libya and carry oil to Europe, and Libya would be well fortified as one of the most important parts of Italy
Click to expand...
That's probable. It's likely, IMO, Italian tanks & a/c are of better quality than the more/less junk Italy's armed forces were saddled with OTL.

Given Italy joins the Axis, several things occur to me. One, Malta is invaded immediately, to deny RAF bases for attacks on Libyan oil. Two, Greece (maybe only Crete?) is invaded, for the same reason. Three, Hitler diverts less manpower to the Crimea (no need oil?), so Army Group South is stronger. (I can't see him bypassing Stalingrad.) Four, Luftwaffe doesn't suffer anything like the fuel headaches it did OTL, so pilot training & quality is maintained into 1945. Five, better German mobility for the duration. Six, conceivably, more weapons production for Germany & Italy. Seven, conceivably, supply of Italian oil to Japan, & much more effort by Japan across India. Eight, conceivably, an attack out of China through India toward Libya for that reason, so no attack on Pearl Harbor...
 

Valdemar II

Banned
One effect that hasn't been mentioned is that a better Italian army, would likely not need German support in the Balkans.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top