So Romania signs a trade deal with Germany and buys some obsolete weapons from them ? .
The promise good weapons.this was before Ribbentrop-Molotov so the where trying to assure that there oil supplies will be secure,and that the will not be attack by the soviets true Romania.
This changes the strategic situation in exactly ZERO ways. .
It strengthens up the Romanian army,in the eventuality of an soviet attack,or even butterfly’s it away,make it possible that Romania Bulgaria and Hungry to adopt a more Swedish way,so be escape the of the war.and possible neutrality after the war.It will also change the France and UK’s policy to wards the South Eastern Europe.
Romania still looks to France as its main ally and trading partner and history (barring unforeseen butterflies) goes on as normal.
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The Friendship treaty be between France and Romania.Did not oblige France to give Romania assistance in case of conflict with her neighbors,and in case of general conflict the have only a moral obligation ( AMAE*, fond 71/Franta, vol. 63.Paper entitled "Treaty of friendship and arbitration between Romania and France"Archive of Ministry of Foreign Affairs ).
Actually it was Germany that was Romania main trading partner accounting for 25% of her tread.,Uk find the second tread partener with 10%. and " Already in 1938, Yugoslavia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece transacted 50% of all their foreign trade with Germany." Hans-Joachim Braun,
"The German Economy in the Twentieth Century", Routledge, 1990, p. 102
( Valeriu Florin Dobrinescu, Relatii româno-engleze (1914-1933), Iasi, 1986, pp. 83-148.)
There might be some minor political butterflies in Romania if the arms deal is done instead of the OTL one with Skoda, but I don't see how this will have any sort of impact.
The king gets a brain or Nicolae Titulescu gets on or gets booted earlier
Germany promise not to support Hungary's claims.
Skoda deal was a disaster for Romania,he got signet because of corruption.
Romania might acculty get some decent weapons,and then there is the impact on the economy.
Romania is one of those countries where not drifting into the Soviet sphere at some point is an astoundingly difficult feat to accomplish. Though, assuming a situation where if there were a very successful Germany, it is possible to see Romania drift into the German economic and political sphere following say a Central Powers victory in the First World War, but that obviously doesn't work with the Interwar timeframe the OP wants..
Romania always balanced between France-UK and German influence even before WWI,and after the war.Yes after the war Romania departed from Germany which resulted in the collapse of the economy,France failed to replace Germany in the Romanian economy.
Actually it was in the German economical sphere
Germany accounted for 25% of her tread.,Uk find the second tread partener with 10%.
( Valeriu Florin Dobrinescu, Relatii româno-engleze (1914-1933), Iasi, 1986, pp. 83-148.) and " Already in 1938, Yugoslavia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece transacted 50% of all their foreign trade with Germany." Hans-Joachim Braun,
"The German Economy in the Twentieth Century", Routledge, 1990, p. 102
But then again, even if that were acceptable, what would it really change in the end?
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Neutrality for a lot a countries,during the war and after the war,a hell lot of people not dying.
Romania would be just as unceasingly controlled by a stronger power as it was under Soviet influence.
So was Sweden.
I don't see it lasting too long though, the states of Eurasia (collectively known as the Russian Empire and later the Soviet Union), they're like a tough boxer, no matter how hard they take a hit, they just keep on coming back with another punch. A hostile Romania isn't anywhere near as dangerous for the Soviet Union as a hostile Poland, but it's still something no reasonable government of the Soviet Union could simply allow to happen. Romanian oil is a resource of great potential value to the industrializing USSR.
The have enough oil of there on,the wanted Bessarabia to get access to the Danube,protect Odessa.Northern Bukovina for the rails line.
It is not the question of an hostile Romania,rather of a Romania that is capable of resisting the soviets.A neutral Romania that supplies the Germans with row materials is more then enough for the Germans.
QUOTE=HeavyWeaponsGuy;7928506]
The Soviets will of course, want Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina as soon as they possibly can. And Romania can't really hope to hold off that issue forever.[/QUOTE]
Yes the might,but depending on what is the relation between Germany and Romania,the might decide to postpone the issue,since Stalin wanted Germany and the allies to fight each other.And the did ask for it,first that ask for it was Lenin.