WI: Mongol invasion of Japan successful

[profxyz]

I highly doubt the Mongols would let a family who claim to be the equal of the emperor of China live.

The Mongols weren't going to let the Japanese tenno claim to be an equal of the Mongol Khan, but as long as he admitted vassal status to the Mongol Empire I think the Mongols would probably leave him alone. The most important thing as far as the Yuan Dynasty was concerned was for Japan (or Korea, or Annam etc.) to follow the basic protocols of Mongolian vassalage: tribute, hostages, and supplying men/materiel for war. Anything else was pretty negotiable. (Of course, whether the tenno would accept such demotion is another question entirely...)

Kublai Khan, in the beginning, was quite willing to treat the surrendered Song Emperors kindly (to the extent that Song forces under Li Tingzhi were unable to convince Empress Dowager Xie to flee to the fugitive Song court in Fujian), but that changed once the two youngest Song members were spirited out of Hangzhou and became rallying points for Song resistance, which continued all throughout the Yuan Dynasty. In such circumstances the continued existence of the House of Zhao was going to be problematic.

 

[Avrorrange]

The Mongols weren't going to let the Japanese tenno claim to be an equal of the Mongol Khan, but as long as he admitted vassal status to the Mongol Empire I think the Mongols would probably leave him alone. The most important thing as far as the Yuan Dynasty was concerned was for Japan (or Korea, or Annam etc.) to follow the basic protocols of Mongolian vassalage: tribute, hostages, and supplying men/materiel for war. Anything else was pretty negotiable. (Of course, whether the tenno would accept such demotion is another question entirely...)

Kublai Khan, in the beginning, was quite willing to treat the surrendered Song Emperors kindly (to the extent that Song forces under Li Tingzhi were unable to convince Empress Dowager Xie to flee to the fugitive Song court in Fujian), but that changed once the two youngest Song members were spirited out of Hangzhou and became rallying points for Song resistance, which continued all throughout the Yuan Dynasty. In such circumstances the continued existence of the House of Zhao was going to be problematic.

Problem is he purged the Zhao family after those two were already killed.Given the scale of the operation,if it was successful(I don't think the Japanese are just going to negotiate for vassal status once the Mongols landed,they are most likely going to fight hard),I doubt the Mongols will just accept tribute,take hostage and take men and material for war.The reason why Annam was able to negotiate for tributary status was because the defeated the Mongols but don't want any further hassle.The Koreans just submitted very early on without much resistance.

 

[takerma]

Storm had little to do with failure of both invasions.

In first case it destroyed the fleet after it was withdrawing, having been defeated on land.

In second invasion, Mongols were defeated basically everywhere they landed. Then typhoon came and finished them off.

Important thing here is that they were mostly fighting local lords on both occasions. In second invasion Kyushu landing areas were heavily fortified by Japanese who knew and expected the invasion.

To have mongol victory you need a better, plan, more ships and fragmented Japan. Even then it will be really hard. Japanese geography creates large number of chokepoints and defensible areas that can be held by local lords. There are very few areas where Mongolian cavalry can really show its strength.

They also probably want to land somewhere else and not Kyushu. Maybe Niigata and try to take mountain paths and strike into heart of Shinano. Problem there that they soon will face massive reinforcements coming from South Shinano and Kai.

By its geography, level of population and militarization and level of centralization Japan is a really hard nut to crack. Maybe if there is a civil war, Shogun is weak and they can make an agreement with someone. They need atleast one Daimyo on their side.

 

[profxyz]

Problem is he purged the Zhao family after those two were already killed.

My point was that even after the death of those two Emperors, southern Chinese resistance continued to be conducted in the name of the Song Dynasty (even in the late Yuan, for example, you had rebel leaders like Han Lin'er calling himself Emperor of Song). So the rallying potential for the rest of the Zhao Dynasty was just too dangerous for them to stay alive.

Given the scale of the operation,if it was successful(I don't think the Japanese are just going to negotiate for vassal status once the Mongols landed,they are most likely going to fight hard),I doubt the Mongols will just accept tribute,take hostage and take men and material for war.

It does depend on what you think Mongol objectives for the conquest of Japan were. While Kublai did establish a Department of Japan in the expectation of having to administer the territory, the objectives of Mongol conquest typically center around extracting plunder or tribute from defeated lands. If the Japanese had willingly decided to submit, especially after a hard fight, I think the Mongols would have accepted that.

That is because there are different levels of vassalage to the Yuan Emperor. In classic form, the Yuan promoted the idea of the "Six Duties" of vassals: 1) homage by the king, 2) hostages, 3) population census for drafting, 4) supply of troops and arms, 5) revenue records, and 6) allow Yuan resident generals in the country.

How many of these 'duties' a Yuan tributary needed to perform really depended on the ability of the Yuan to enforce its will. Korea was utterly defeated in its almost 30-year-long war with the Mongols, and so had to accept every duty. Annam was originally expected to follow suit but got rid of most of them through victory in war. Distant lands like Champa could get away with just a nominal submission. I'm sure the Yuan 'requirements' for Japan would have changed depending on the prowess of the Japanese army, and that Kublai Khan would not have particularly driven for total victory at all costs.

 

[Avrorrange]

My point was that even after the death of those two Emperors, southern Chinese resistance continued to be conducted in the name of the Song Dynasty (even in the late Yuan, for example, you had rebel leaders like Han Lin'er calling himself Emperor of Song). So the rallying potential for the rest of the Zhao Dynasty was just too dangerous for them to stay alive.



It does depend on what you think Mongol objectives for the conquest of Japan were. While Kublai did establish a Department of Japan in the expectation of having to administer the territory, the objectives of Mongol conquest typically center around extracting plunder or tribute from defeated lands. If the Japanese had willingly decided to submit, especially after a hard fight, I think the Mongols would have accepted that.

That is because there are different levels of vassalage to the Yuan Emperor. In classic form, the Yuan promoted the idea of the "Six Duties" of vassals: 1) homage by the king, 2) hostages, 3) population census for drafting, 4) supply of troops and arms, 5) revenue records, and 6) allow Yuan resident generals in the country.

How many of these 'duties' a Yuan tributary needed to perform really depended on the ability of the Yuan to enforce its will. Korea was utterly defeated in its almost 30-year-long war with the Mongols, and so had to accept every duty. Annam was originally expected to follow suit but got rid of most of them through victory in war. Distant lands like Champa could get away with just a nominal submission. I'm sure the Yuan 'requirements' for Japan would have changed depending on the prowess of the Japanese army, and that Kublai Khan would not have particularly driven for total victory at all costs.

I think the Japanese would have actually continued the resistance in the name of the emperors even if the emperors have submitted(even more so in Japan than in China),given the Japanese essentially saw their emperor as a living god,which is why I believed the Mongols would just get rid of the whole family,including all the collateral branches.

 

[BBadolato]

I think the Japanese would have actually continued the resistance in the name of the emperors even if the emperors have submitted(even more so in Japan than in China),given the Japanese essentially saw their emperor as a living god,which is why I believed the Mongols would just get rid of the whole family,including all the collateral branches.

I doubt it, the emperor being treated like a god I think was more in the State Shinto years more than anything, even then like a modern day Shogunate, the military ran things. Hell you even had one legitimate line overthrown and replaced with that one rules in the modern day. Personally I'd say they would just surrender, by then you still had the Hojo clan in power as shoguns anyway.

 

[Avrorrange]

I doubt it, the emperor being treated like a god I think was more in the State Shinto years more than anything, even then like a modern day Shogunate, the military ran things. Hell you even had one legitimate line overthrown and replaced with that one rules in the modern day. Personally I'd say they would just surrender, by then you still had the Hojo clan in power as shoguns anyway.

They would surrender,but someone would have continued the resistance or rebelled in their name. However powerless they are,their name still carried tremendous legitimacy as living gods.And they were treated as living gods even before the modern era.There's a strong reason why the numerous military strongmen and regents never formally deposed the Yamato Dynasty and made themselves emperor,I can assure you that if the same kind of thing happened in China or elsewhere,the Yamato dynasty would have been deposed and purged by all these strongmen long ago.

 

[WhatIsAUserName]

I don't think the first expedition could have conquered all of Japan, because I can't imagine it was meant to conquer Japan. The Mongol conquest of China was still five years away, and the 1274 force was not particularly large. Even if the first expedition had succeeded (in the sense of being a great victory, since a closer examination of sources suggests the 1274 was either a draw or actually a tactical Mongol victory), I think the Mongols would have returned home soon.

The second expedition presents more of a chance for conquest. This expedition was made in two parts: a first wave had about 40,000 soldiers, and the second had 100,000. It was the first wave that was soundly and repeatedly defeated by Japanese forces, but regrouped with the second wave. Perhaps if the wind didn't hit this combined force, the Mongols might have won.

What happens next? Well, the Mongols would need to go from Kyushu to Kyoto, where the Emperor is, and then onto Kamakura where the shogunate is headquartered. Japan isn't exactly great terrain for cavalry, so that would slow the Mongols a bit (at the same time the Mongols successfully conquered similar landscapes), but there's also the supply issue, which would be harder to surmount. I imagine the shogunate's agents in Kyoto would force the Emperor and the two Retired Emperors to flee for safety to Kamakura.

The Japanese and the Mongols are not quite matched: the Mongols will have greater numbers and better equipment. On the other hand, the Japanese will be fighting in their home territory and will have better supply lines. Even if the Mongols do manage to land, it wouldn't be an automatic victory in their favor.

Hojo rulers probably would want to fight to the death against the Mongols, but if they wanted to seek peace, the Mongols would probably be okay with Japan as a tributary. It would make sense that the Mongols, rather than keep fighting all the way till they reach Kamakura, would cut a deal that left the Mongols in charge of the west while the shogunate still controls the east. The only question is if the Japanese would accept that, which is less likely.

 

[mlp]

The Koreans just submitted very early on without much resistance.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_invasions_of_Korea
In what world did you hear the Korea submitted without much resistance?

By its geography, level of population and militarization and level of centralization Japan is a really hard nut to crack. Maybe if there is a civil war, Shogun is weak and they can make an agreement with someone. They need atleast one Daimyo on their side.

I thought Japan became more militarily mature during the Warring States era. Was it already so before the wars?

The Japanese and the Mongols are not quite matched: the Mongols will have greater numbers and better equipment. On the other hand, the Japanese will be fighting in their home territory and will have better supply lines. Even if the Mongols do manage to land, it wouldn't be an automatic victory in their favor.

Seeing how Korea turned out, and seeing how Korea is (arguably) similar in terrain and levels of conscription, I doubt it would be much different.

 

[Avrorrange]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_invasions_of_Korea
In what world did you hear the Korea submitted without much resistance?

Sorry,I must have confused the Mongol invasion with the Manchu one.

Although,I suspect that getting rid of the Emperors would be a convenient thing for both the Mongols and the Hojos in the event that the Hojos decide it's better if Japan gets to be a vassal state.The Hojos get granted the title of King by the Khagan while the House of Yamato get purged by the Mongols to avoid an insurgence in their name.Unlike other countries,the emperors of Japan were seen as living gods and were never replaced as rulers.I suspect that the House of Yamato would have much more legitimacy in the eyes of the people of Japan than the Goryeo Dynasty ever was.Unless the Mongols conquer the entire place without negotiations and install a Yamato as a puppet ruler(I have a feeling though if it got to that stage,they'd just annex the whole them thing and rule directly),if they do choose the negotiation path,they would want the ones in power(the Hojos) to be indebted to THEM in power,not the House of Yamato.

 

[WhatIsAUserName]

Seeing how Korea turned out, and seeing how Korea is (arguably) similar in terrain and levels of conscription, I doubt it would be much different.

It could be immensely different. The Korean court could stay on Kanghwa Island across three decades in almost complete safety while the Mongol cavalrymen could do nothing more than watch from the shore. The same applies to Koreans who fled the peninsula for the safety of outlying islands. Even when the Mongols invaders developed something like a navy, it wasn't effective enough to take Kanghwa or land in the untouched southern third of the Korean Peninsula.

Japan in 1281 doesn't have that advantage. Around this time, the Yuan Dynasty was invading by sea places as far away as Champa and Java. Japan does have mountains, fortresses, and distance to its advantage. Such a Mongol navy would leave from distant shores and risk destruction by a storm, but it's still a real threat. Unlike Korea four decades earlier, Japan in 1281 would always need to worry about naval invasion.

 

[takerma]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_invasions_of_Korea

I thought Japan became more militarily mature during the Warring States era. Was it already so before the wars?

It is matter of degrees, during warring states it became insane because not only samurai were fighting but they conscripted peasants in huge numbers.

Mongol invasion is very different but Samurai are still numerous.

Second invasion really did not get to a good start at all. They lost basically everywhere they fought. They were fighting only the first force of Japanese, there was larger force on the way that never made it to battle before Mongols were repulsed.

 

[PhilippeO]

What happens next? Well, the Mongols would need to go from Kyushu to Kyoto, where the Emperor is, and then onto Kamakura where the shogunate is headquartered.

But Japan inland sea is rather safe for sailing, if Mongols can control North Kyushu, they can control inland sea. And then they can land on Osaka. From Osaka to Kyoto is rather easy.

Once Kyoto falls, Hojo and other area probably agree to accept vassalisation. if nothing else prestige of Kyoto would make many samurai switch sides.

The Japanese and the Mongols are not quite matched: the Mongols will have greater numbers and better equipment. On the other hand, the Japanese will be fighting in their home territory and will have better supply lines. Even if the Mongols do manage to land, it wouldn't be an automatic victory in their favor.

Agree, the question is whether Mongol general is clever enough to offer deal to regional/local samurai. Mongols will probably accept local lord who submit with tribute of food and soldier. Most mountainous area is probably have minimal impact, there are no reason to change governance in them.

The only area Mongol will impose direct administration is North Kyushu, Osaka Plain and capital Kyoto. other area is too mountainous and not very profitable.

 

[Avrorrange]

But Japan inland sea is rather safe for sailing, if Mongols can control North Kyushu, they can control inland sea. And then they can land on Osaka. From Osaka to Kyoto is rather easy.

Once Kyoto falls, Hojo and other area probably agree to accept vassalisation. if nothing else prestige of Kyoto would make many samurai switch sides.



Agree, the question is whether Mongol general is clever enough to offer deal to regional/local samurai. Mongols will probably accept local lord who submit with tribute of food and soldier. Most mountainous area is probably have minimal impact, there are no reason to change governance in them.

The only area Mongol will impose direct administration is North Kyushu, Osaka Plain and capital Kyoto. other area is too mountainous and not very profitable.

From what I gathered from wikipedia,Japan in this period had civil governors(in charge of local management like taxes) appointed by the Imperial Court by Kyoto and military governors(mainly prominent locals,in charge of the army and police) appointed by Kamakura.So in the event of a Mongol victory,would the mongols just give local strongmen power over both sides of government or would they continue the dual system?

 

[deathscompanion1]

If Wiki is reliable in this (and its all I have to go on here) the second Mongolian invasion was a rout with up to 30,000 Mongols getting taken prisoner in a single disastrous battle. What does seem uncontroversial is that the entire campaign was a string of Japanese victories often by the very first armies on the scene.

It seems unlikely that the Mongols would succeed without a horrific blood letting if that is anything to go by so chances are that they will make some kind of peace and then go home first chance they get once they realise that this is terrain they aren't used to against unusually fierce enemies who are consistently winning battles something no foe has ever managed to do up to that point. Seems like wasted effort.

 

[FasterThanRaito]

As said before by many posts,

Assuming there is perfect weather and Mongol forces are able to land and supply without complications, they would have just been defeated in battle anyways, as was shown in the Second Invasion OTL.

Any invasion of Japan wouldn't even get past Kyushu, let alone reach the seat of Shogunate power.

If Mongol armies are defeated battle after battle, and they fail to make headway inland, there is no reason for any Japanese lord to submit to foreign rule.

End result: not much different from OTL, with slight demographic ripples that butterfly, as affected by troop movements and combat.