(Ok, so I know this is a little obscure. But bear with me...)
During the mid to late 1880s, while the Ethiopian Emperor Yohannes was busy fighting off Ethiopian and Sudanese invasions, Ras Menelik of Shewa (later to become Emperor Menelik, the victor of Adowa) was engaged in expanding his own small kingdom from the southern fringes of traditional Ethiopian territory into the predominantly Islamic lands in the south and east. It's thanks to Menelik's own programme of conquest and colonisation, carried out in parallel with that of the European powers, that Ethiopia covers such a large area today; he practically doubled the size of the country in a very effective series of wars that are largely forgotten about today.
Obscure though they may be however, there were a number of moments that could have seen Menelik tripped up. Perhaps the most obvious came at what OTL turned out to be one of his most famous victories; Chelenqo, which enabled the Shewan conquest of the city of Harar.
Harar, is which several hundred miles south of Djibouti and today is one of the major population centres of eastern Ethiopia, was situated in an important strategic position, sitting astride the trade routes between the Red Sea and Shewa. As such, it was prefectly placed to block Menelik's frequent deliveries of obstelete European weapons which were used to give Shewan armies a technoligical edge against his rivals (as a side note, these were mostly sold to him by the French and Italians, parituclarly the latter; ironically considering what happened at Adowa, they saw Menelik as their principal ally in the region).
In 1886, the Emir of Harar did just this, comandeering the weapons for his own troops. Menelik was furious, and after the providential massacre of some Italian explorers near the city used his status as Rome's principal ally in the region as an excuse to obtain some revenge. He gathered an army of several thousand veteran warriors armed with modern rifles, marched to Harar, and offered the Emir autonomy; the Emir's reply consisted of a turban and a prayer rug along with an insulting letter suggesting the king of Shoa convert to Islam, "for only then will I consider you my master,".
With negotiations abandoned, Menelik marched towards the city, only to have his force routed by a surprise night attack by Hararan soliders using, strangely enough, fireworks. A few months later he tried again, and when the Emir tried to use the same tactic at Chelenqo his army was wiped out and he fled to Yemen, leaving his uncle to surrender the city.
As a result, Menelik expanded his kingdom to the Ogeden desert, enhanced his presitge and was put in a perfect position to claim the crown when Yohannes IV was killed at the battle of Metemma the following year. But what if?
Although the battle of Chelenqo was a walkover, it did not have to be. The walls of Harar are famously tall and thick (and still stand to this day), and the Emir had modern weaponry and a handful of modern Krupp atillery pieces. If he had lured Menelik into a siege he could probably have held out indefinitely and eventually forced the Shewans to retreat in disorder. So what then?
Assuming Menelik isn't killed in action (which is certainly possible; Abyssinian leaders, even ones as sly as Menelik, generally led from the front), the two immediate effects will be the loss of European weaponry to the Shewans, and Menelik's personal prestige suffering a big knock. The following year, when Yohannes IV dies, Menelik will be far less of an obvious candidate for the throne; Mengesha Yohannes, the Emperor's son and proclaimed heir would have a far larger chance of making a viable claim of his own. This would plunge Ethiopia into a civil war at the worst possible time, and one in which the Italians would doubtless take great pleasure playing the rival candidates off against each other for aid.
Menelik would probably still win- he was the most cunning of all his contemporaries- but it would be easy to envisage circumstances where a defeated Mengesha Yohannes either signs over all of his native Tigray to Italy (as he considered OTL), or flees to Massawa as a sort of "King across the water". Either would make the Ethiopian resistance to Italian expansion in the mid-to-late 1890s far more complicated, and potentisally unsucessful; and this in turn would probably preserve the Crispi administration, leading to a far more centralised and authoritarian Italy in the pre-war period.
There's also the fate of Harar to consider. OTL, it had been occupied by the Egyptians, along with most of what would later become British Somaliland, until 1884, when the rise of the Mahdi forced their withdrawal. Although the Emir was stubbornly independent and disliked all foreigners, he hated the Shewans more than most, and in the long term would likely have done a deal with one or another of the European powers in exchange for autonomy (or a hefty pay-off). The most obvious candidates are Britain and France, although Italy might make another logical choice; any of the three would ensure that in the long term the Ogaden region would end up under European, rather then Ethiopian rule. In the long term, a "Greater Somalia" would be far more likely as a result.
Thoughts/Comments?
During the mid to late 1880s, while the Ethiopian Emperor Yohannes was busy fighting off Ethiopian and Sudanese invasions, Ras Menelik of Shewa (later to become Emperor Menelik, the victor of Adowa) was engaged in expanding his own small kingdom from the southern fringes of traditional Ethiopian territory into the predominantly Islamic lands in the south and east. It's thanks to Menelik's own programme of conquest and colonisation, carried out in parallel with that of the European powers, that Ethiopia covers such a large area today; he practically doubled the size of the country in a very effective series of wars that are largely forgotten about today.
Obscure though they may be however, there were a number of moments that could have seen Menelik tripped up. Perhaps the most obvious came at what OTL turned out to be one of his most famous victories; Chelenqo, which enabled the Shewan conquest of the city of Harar.
Harar, is which several hundred miles south of Djibouti and today is one of the major population centres of eastern Ethiopia, was situated in an important strategic position, sitting astride the trade routes between the Red Sea and Shewa. As such, it was prefectly placed to block Menelik's frequent deliveries of obstelete European weapons which were used to give Shewan armies a technoligical edge against his rivals (as a side note, these were mostly sold to him by the French and Italians, parituclarly the latter; ironically considering what happened at Adowa, they saw Menelik as their principal ally in the region).
In 1886, the Emir of Harar did just this, comandeering the weapons for his own troops. Menelik was furious, and after the providential massacre of some Italian explorers near the city used his status as Rome's principal ally in the region as an excuse to obtain some revenge. He gathered an army of several thousand veteran warriors armed with modern rifles, marched to Harar, and offered the Emir autonomy; the Emir's reply consisted of a turban and a prayer rug along with an insulting letter suggesting the king of Shoa convert to Islam, "for only then will I consider you my master,".
With negotiations abandoned, Menelik marched towards the city, only to have his force routed by a surprise night attack by Hararan soliders using, strangely enough, fireworks. A few months later he tried again, and when the Emir tried to use the same tactic at Chelenqo his army was wiped out and he fled to Yemen, leaving his uncle to surrender the city.
As a result, Menelik expanded his kingdom to the Ogeden desert, enhanced his presitge and was put in a perfect position to claim the crown when Yohannes IV was killed at the battle of Metemma the following year. But what if?
Although the battle of Chelenqo was a walkover, it did not have to be. The walls of Harar are famously tall and thick (and still stand to this day), and the Emir had modern weaponry and a handful of modern Krupp atillery pieces. If he had lured Menelik into a siege he could probably have held out indefinitely and eventually forced the Shewans to retreat in disorder. So what then?
Assuming Menelik isn't killed in action (which is certainly possible; Abyssinian leaders, even ones as sly as Menelik, generally led from the front), the two immediate effects will be the loss of European weaponry to the Shewans, and Menelik's personal prestige suffering a big knock. The following year, when Yohannes IV dies, Menelik will be far less of an obvious candidate for the throne; Mengesha Yohannes, the Emperor's son and proclaimed heir would have a far larger chance of making a viable claim of his own. This would plunge Ethiopia into a civil war at the worst possible time, and one in which the Italians would doubtless take great pleasure playing the rival candidates off against each other for aid.
Menelik would probably still win- he was the most cunning of all his contemporaries- but it would be easy to envisage circumstances where a defeated Mengesha Yohannes either signs over all of his native Tigray to Italy (as he considered OTL), or flees to Massawa as a sort of "King across the water". Either would make the Ethiopian resistance to Italian expansion in the mid-to-late 1890s far more complicated, and potentisally unsucessful; and this in turn would probably preserve the Crispi administration, leading to a far more centralised and authoritarian Italy in the pre-war period.
There's also the fate of Harar to consider. OTL, it had been occupied by the Egyptians, along with most of what would later become British Somaliland, until 1884, when the rise of the Mahdi forced their withdrawal. Although the Emir was stubbornly independent and disliked all foreigners, he hated the Shewans more than most, and in the long term would likely have done a deal with one or another of the European powers in exchange for autonomy (or a hefty pay-off). The most obvious candidates are Britain and France, although Italy might make another logical choice; any of the three would ensure that in the long term the Ogaden region would end up under European, rather then Ethiopian rule. In the long term, a "Greater Somalia" would be far more likely as a result.
Thoughts/Comments?
