WI Mehmed killed at the siege of Constantinople

[Tyler96]

So, what happens if Mehmed the Conqueror is killed at the siege of Constantinople. I'm not sure how it happens- maybe one of his cannons explodes and kills him (a la James II, the Great Bombard obviously did explode)?

Presumably the army, lacking a clear leader, disbands? Constantinople gets a reprieve.

Succession wise, the interregnum and general fratricidal tendencies meant the Ottoman dynasty was thin on the ground.

Mehmed killed his only surviving (and infant) brother shortly after ascending the throne, and his eldest son Bayezid II is only 5/6.

All Murad's brothers were dead.

There was Orhan, a descendant of Bayezid I, who was a guest at Constantinople and fought dutifully in the city's defence (and was killed/suicided/executed during its fall). Are their any other potential pretenders- some obscure cousin somewhere who escaped the purges?

The Byzzies would presumably release Orhan to cause trouble but would he, as someone who resided in Constantinople for X years and was recently fighting with the Byzzies, even get any support? If the choice is between a kid and someone who was recently an enemy but is a capable adult, who would they choose?

Bayezid's camp is presumably riven with disputes over who gets to be regent or whatever. Is there any chance someone simply offs him and claims the throne for themself?

What can the Byzzies make of this situation? Their enemy is riven with dissension around a child king, and one of the only alternative candidates is in their power? At best the Ottomans are facing a succession dispute, 10-year regency or even deposition.

Is there a chance the Ottoman Empire simply disintegrates? They managed to reconstitute themselves after getting smashed by Timur/the interregnum, but this might be their first minority. At the very least are there any border areas that might break away?

 

[Noblesse Oblige]

Byzantium is still effectively doomed as all get out. Granted Constantine XI would keep his throne for another 10 years at most, along with control (albeit tentatively) over the Morea, but that's about it really, it's only a matter of time before the Ottomans get their act together and start wrecking face.

If anything, something like this would've been used to Albania's advantage to shake off the yoke of the Ottomans. But this assumes of course, that Bayezid II's minority does end up going to pot relatively quickly, even more so if Orhan gets involved.

 

[Cuāuhtemōc]

Nope, the Ottomans have been through worse via Tamerlane. At best, this buys Constantinople a few more years until the Ottomans unite under Bayezid and they thrash the Romans.

 

[GdwnsnHo]

It really depends on how unstable the situation is. Prior to the conquest of Constantinople, Mehmed wasn't particularly popular, and many nobles thought he was (frankly) a bit of an ambitious fool. Now we have an insanely young Bayezid. Who is but a child. Any ambitious noble could try and take power, as could the Janissaries through Bayezid. It looks like any number of people would try to take advantage, the Karamanids, or anyone with the backing to try and take power could either use the boy, or try to take over themselves. It'd be a nasty interregnum with no adult heir (that I know of). This is a perfect opportunity for greatness out of chaos.

Personally, I'd want to see Byzantium have the balls, take control of Rumelihisarı, and try and barter for control over the Ottomans European territory. i.e. We'll fight alongside you mr guy in charge of Anatolia, and even accept you as an overlord or pay tribute, ensure no tariffs on Ottoman shipping, but we want Europe.

Hell, if someone has the brains to do so, they could send a letter to the Pope in Rome, saying that the death of Mehmed was a gift from God, but also a wake up call to Christendom to Crusade (again) against the Turks. Considering the Romans had previously agreed to go Catholic for help - you might well see a Catholic Roman Empire, at least nominally, for some time.

Although generally, since there is no clear heir, you have the Janissaries, the Ghazis, the Romans, and the various other subjugated peoples (Albanians, Bulgarians) and the recently conquered Sultanates. Any and all of which could take advantage of the lack of a strong heir. The Ottomans kinda really didn't like weak, young heirs. *cough*Osman II*cough*.

I'd enjoy a byzanto-wank TL based on this. I'd be fun.

 

[Tyler96]

Personally, I'd want to see Byzantium have the balls, take control of Rumelihisarı, and try and barter for control over the Ottomans European territory. i.e. We'll fight alongside you mr guy in charge of Anatolia, and even accept you as an overlord or pay tribute, ensure no tariffs on Ottoman shipping, but we want Europe.

Hell, if someone has the brains to do so, they could send a letter to the Pope in Rome, saying that the death of Mehmed was a gift from God, but also a wake up call to Christendom to Crusade (again) against the Turks. Considering the Romans had previously agreed to go Catholic for help - you might well see a Catholic Roman Empire, at least nominally, for some time.

Maybe I'm a cynic, but even if the Byzzies bartered support for a pretender with control of some European territory, wouldn't said pretender, as soon as his situation is secure, just renege on the agreement? I mean, surrendering a bunch of territory to the Greeks isn't the most politically palatable move for a new Sultan. Also, I'm not sure Byzzie support is worth much- they only mustered c.4000 troops for the defence of goddamn Constantinople, how many will they offer a pretender?

As for a crusade- the West hardly got off its ass when Constantinople was on the brink of falling, so it surviving another siege probably just reinforces their complacency. I'm not sure that there's even any crusading vigour left- the disaster at Varna is only a decade ago, and Nicopolis is still within living(-ish) memory.

I doubt the Union of the Churches will get anywhere- it was already intensely unpopular, had failed multiple times, and any Latin representatives will likely just report back to the Pope that most of the populace is still maintaining the Greek rite.

 

[avernite]

The biggest thing is that there's little chance that, even if the Ottomans fall apart, the Byzantines will profit.

The Venetians and Genoese are both about 10 times as powerful in the area, and especially Venice could profit by propping up minor puppets everwhere (and then slowly absorbing them, see Cyprus). Alternatively some other Turkish dynasty could reunite Anatolia and come back for round 2.

 

[gochisox]

So, what happens if Mehmed the Conqueror is killed at the siege of Constantinople. I'm not sure how it happens- maybe one of his cannons explodes and kills him (a la James II, the Great Bombard obviously did explode)?

Presumably the army, lacking a clear leader, disbands? Constantinople gets a reprieve.

Succession wise, the interregnum and general fratricidal tendencies meant the Ottoman dynasty was thin on the ground.

Mehmed killed his only surviving (and infant) brother shortly after ascending the throne, and his eldest son Bayezid II is only 5/6.

All Murad's brothers were dead.

There was Orhan, a descendant of Bayezid I, who was a guest at Constantinople and fought dutifully in the city's defence (and was killed/suicided/executed during its fall). Are their any other potential pretenders- some obscure cousin somewhere who escaped the purges?

The Byzzies would presumably release Orhan to cause trouble but would he, as someone who resided in Constantinople for X years and was recently fighting with the Byzzies, even get any support? If the choice is between a kid and someone who was recently an enemy but is a capable adult, who would they choose?

Bayezid's camp is presumably riven with disputes over who gets to be regent or whatever. Is there any chance someone simply offs him and claims the throne for themself?

What can the Byzzies make of this situation? Their enemy is riven with dissension around a child king, and one of the only alternative candidates is in their power? At best the Ottomans are facing a succession dispute, 10-year regency or even deposition.

Is there a chance the Ottoman Empire simply disintegrates? They managed to reconstitute themselves after getting smashed by Timur/the interregnum, but this might be their first minority. At the very least are there any border areas that might break away?

I dont think theres much that the Byzantines could do at this point, Ottomans would view this a a calamity yes, an it would give Constantinople a reprieve for a while, but Byzantine is so weak I doubt theres much they could do to stop the next attack. A Crusades would be very unlikely (there was so little interest after it fell, why would there be any if id dident) Orhan was a man who fought against the Turks trying to capture the city, why would any Turks join him.

As for Bayezid, I would bet the regent would be either Halil Pasha or Zagan Pasha, Halil was from an insanely powerful family who had already ruled much of the empire when Mehmed was young and would most likely take control on his own. However, since ITL Halil was executed right after Constantinople falls and many believe the plan had been put in place sine before the fall, it is possible it would go through even with Mehmed dead.
Zagan was completely loyal to Mehmed being a Janissary, he would have stayed loyal to Bayezid. Whichever one of those men had the power, it would have not mattered to Constantinople since both were incredibly pro conquering it. Whomever wins the most interesting thing for me would be the influence of the Janissary Corps. Halil would have tried to limit its power, being a Turk and just fighting the Janissary, while Zagan would strengthen in, being a Janissary himself.