This is a bit of a long winded one, but the idea came to me and I think it’s a really interesting one, so here we go:
In otl, Philip of Bavaria, Duke of Palatine-Neuberg, tried to win Mary’s hand in marriage for some time, though he ultimately failed due to Mary’s reluctance and later Henry’s opposition after the Anne of Cleves affair. However, let’s say the marriage takes place. Maybe Mary is won over and married Philip prior to the Cleves affair or Henry VIII forces it through post Cleves affair for whatever reason. Either way, by 1540 the two are married and Mary is pregnant. Now, let’s suppose Philip dies before or shortly after the child dies and they end up being raised in England. Now what? The scenario could go two different ways depending on the child’s gender.
If it’s a boy:
If it’s a girl:
In otl, Philip of Bavaria, Duke of Palatine-Neuberg, tried to win Mary’s hand in marriage for some time, though he ultimately failed due to Mary’s reluctance and later Henry’s opposition after the Anne of Cleves affair. However, let’s say the marriage takes place. Maybe Mary is won over and married Philip prior to the Cleves affair or Henry VIII forces it through post Cleves affair for whatever reason. Either way, by 1540 the two are married and Mary is pregnant. Now, let’s suppose Philip dies before or shortly after the child dies and they end up being raised in England. Now what? The scenario could go two different ways depending on the child’s gender.
If it’s a boy:
- One of the first ideas I have is that Henry would restore Mary to the succession sooner. If only so that he can have her son (let’s call him Henry) as a spare to Edward. He’d likely be raised alongside Edward and groomed to rule in the event Edward dies early. I could see him being given an English Dukedom/Title (maybe Duke of Somerset?).
- There would/could be a conflict over what Henry’s religion should be. Mary would obviously want him to be a Catholic while Henry and his councillors would push for him to be an Anglican-Catholic/Protestant. I’d imagine this would heat up in Edward VI’s regency as Henry is viewed as the ideal heir to Edward until he fathers children. It’d probably put more strain on Mary’s relationship with her father and brother.
- If Edward still dies in 1553, he’s more than likely going to name Henry his heir, especially if he’s Protestant and has been raised with him. As Henry is a man, Edward can justify him skipping Mary in the succession (heck, Empress Matilda serves as precedent for this). However, Mary wouldn’t be happy about the, though would she really take arms against her own son? It might be more prudent to let him take the crown and try to get a position where she can whisper into her ear. What else could arise from this dynamic?
- Henry also has claims to his father’s titles and lands, though would he really do anything with these? The territories are mostly inland AIUI and would be hard to access.
- What else could arise from Henry’s existence? Is there something I might’ve missed?
If it’s a girl:
- If it’s a girl, I’d imagine Henry might let Mary raise her since in his mind she’d be unlikely to succeed the throne/little of a threat to him. Especially since they are on decent terms AIUI. He won’t have much incentive to reside Mary until Katherine Parr comes along too.
- Edward VI might take a more aggressive position on this. He might take custody of her to try and get Mary to stop attending Mass/keep her in line if she tries anything. He might also try to use her as a marriage proxy abroad.
- If Mary still ascends the throne in 1553 following the Nine Day Queen’s matter, I could see her daughter marrying Philip II instead, since she’s younger and more likely to produce a Habsburg heir. This could lead to a Habsburg England (and an earlier independent Habsburg Netherlands if two sons are born). Mary would probably marry Luís of Beja instead here. Or could she still marry Philip II while her daughter marries someone else (maybe one of Ferdinand of Austria’s sons?)
- Elizabeth isn’t going to be Queen here and is married to Emmanuel Philibert of Savoy or remains unmarried and possibly under house arrest. Might some plot to install her as a Protestant Queen though?
These are just my ideas though. What else could change? Could butterflies keep Edward VI alive and keep his niece/nephew in the background? Would Henry VIII’s treatment if Mary and her child end up with a different scenario?