WI:Mark Antony and Cleopatra wins the final war against Octavian?

[Eivind]

Assuming that Octavian is killed in the battle, what would be the consequences of this? Would Antony remain in Egypt or go back to Rome? His relationship with Cleopatra was very unpopular in Rome. Would he end it in order to avoid rebellion and the rise of other rivals?

 

[jocay]

There's the matter of Agrippa - friend to Octavian and husband to Octavian's daughter Julia - who would likely inherit Octavian's position as the main source of Roman opposition to Antony. Octavian's death would be inspiration enough to keep the Senate in line and raise more soldiers against Antony and Cleopatra. At this point, Mark Antony is a Roman who has gone native and become a Hellenistic despot - declaring himself an incarnation of Horus. His kind would not be accepted in Rome - not at this time period. Mark Antony's best bet would be to force Agrippa to losing the eastern provinces to his and Cleopatra's progeny (and Caesaarion). Should it happen, once Antony dies and Cleopatra's children are busy murdering one another (Hellenistic politics are bloody), Rome under Agrippa would come back with a fury and likely uses the victory to become Rome's first emperor.

 

[Tempered Zen]

Assuming that Octavian is killed in the battle, what would be the consequences of this? Would Antony remain in Egypt or go back to Rome? His relationship with Cleopatra was very unpopular in Rome. Would he end it in order to avoid rebellion and the rise of other rivals?

It depends. If Anthony takes control of Italy, he probably takes the title of Dictator in Perpetuity. Knowing his system of governing the East, he probably appoints his friends and kin as largely autonomous governors, heavily federalizing the Roman Republic. Anthony wasn't as good an administrator as he was a commander, so don't expect any Augustus style reforms. He probably funds another Parthians campaign, and any territorial gains will most likely be given to Alexander Helios, his son by Cleopatra. Cleo and Caesarion are possibly confirmed as King of Kings and Queen of Queens by the Roman government under pressure from Anthony, and could be put in charge of managing affairs in the Roman client kingdoms in the East. The remaining Caesarian faction are possibly killed or sent into exile, but an interesting possibility could be letting the Caesar's run the Gallic provinces, effectively as an independent kingdom a la Hannibal. If he has more kids with Cleo, they are probably made client kings in the East. Upon his death, we could see a three-way succession war between the heirs of Anthony, the remaining Caesars, and the East under Cleopatra and Caesarion.

 

[Decius00009]

There's the matter of Agrippa - friend to Octavian and husband to Octavian's daughter Julia - who would likely inherit Octavian's position as the main source of Roman opposition to Antony. Octavian's death would be inspiration enough to keep the Senate in line and raise more soldiers against Antony and Cleopatra. At this point, Mark Antony is a Roman who has gone native and become a Hellenistic despot - declaring himself an incarnation of Horus. His kind would not be accepted in Rome - not at this time period. Mark Antony's best bet would be to force Agrippa to losing the eastern provinces to his and Cleopatra's progeny (and Caesaarion). Should it happen, once Antony dies and Cleopatra's children are busy murdering one another (Hellenistic politics are bloody), Rome under Agrippa would come back with a fury and likely uses the victory to become Rome's first emperor.

Concur. Octavian was a master politician, but he was no general; he had Agrippa for that, and the army knew it. If Octavian died - and not in battle, he probably never fought - the outcome doesn't change. It was Agrippa who defeated Antony, not Octavian. And Agrippa himself was no mean politician

 

[isabella]

There's the matter of Agrippa - friend to Octavian and husband to Octavian's daughter Julia - who would likely inherit Octavian's position as the main source of Roman opposition to Antony. Octavian's death would be inspiration enough to keep the Senate in line and raise more soldiers against Antony and Cleopatra. At this point, Mark Antony is a Roman who has gone native and become a Hellenistic despot - declaring himself an incarnation of Horus. His kind would not be accepted in Rome - not at this time period. Mark Antony's best bet would be to force Agrippa to losing the eastern provinces to his and Cleopatra's progeny (and Caesaarion). Should it happen, once Antony dies and Cleopatra's children are busy murdering one another (Hellenistic politics are bloody), Rome under Agrippa would come back with a fury and likely uses the victory to become Rome's first emperor.

Agrippa at the time was still married to his first wife Caecilia Attica (and the wedding with Julia was the third for him and the second for her; Agrippa before her was married to Claudia Marcella Major aka Octavia’s eldest child while Julia was previously married to her cousin Marcellus, only son of Octavia) and would not be able to take Octavian’s political place. In any case Octavian will not be on the field as he was a bad commander and the merits of his wins were all of Agrippa (and the victory against the killers of Caesar was all of Antony).
With Octavian dying is likely who the situation in Rome will be again instable and is not impossible who Antony will be able to recover his power and prestige.
Julia at the time was likely still engaged to Antyllus (aka Mark Antony’s eldest son) and is pretty likely who she will marry either him or his younger brother Iullus.

 

[Sertorius126]

Agrippa at the time was still married to his first wife Caecilia Attica (and the wedding with Julia was the third for him and the second for her; Agrippa before her was married to Claudia Marcella Major aka Octavia’s eldest child while Julia was previously married to her cousin Marcellus, only son of Octavia) and would not be able to take Octavian’s political place. In any case Octavian will not be on the field as he was a bad commander and the merits of his wins were all of Agrippa (and the victory against the killers of Caesar was all of Antony).
With Octavian dying is likely who the situation in Rome will be again instable and is not impossible who Antony will be able to recover his power and prestige.
Julia at the time was likely still engaged to Antyllus (aka Mark Antony’s eldest son) and is pretty likely who she will marry either him or his younger brother Iullus.

Plus Agrippa doesn’t have neither the clientele, nor a prestigious enough name to take his friend’s place. However, Octavian always was on the field whenever a battle important to his auctoritas was taking place, but he was wise enough to lend effective command to more experienced and capable people. Quite frankly though, it was literally impossible for Octavian to be killed at Actium, that battle was won before it even began.

 

[Eivind]

Concur. Octavian was a master politician, but he was no general; he had Agrippa for that, and the army knew it. If Octavian died - and not in battle, he probably never fought - the outcome doesn't change. It was Agrippa who defeated Antony, not Octavian. And Agrippa himself was no mean politician

The assumption here is that Mark Antony and Cleopatra wins the battle of Actium, although Agrippa might of course win a later battle.

Plus Agrippa doesn’t have neither the clientele, nor a prestigious enough name to take his friend’s place. However, Octavian always was on the field whenever a battle important to his auctoritas was taking place, but he was wise enough to lend effective command to more experienced and capable people. Quite frankly though, it was literally impossible for Octavian to be killed at Actium, that battle was won before it even began.

If Antony and Cleopatra should win, the circumstances of the battle would obviously have to be different.

 

[Sertorius126]

If Antony and Cleopatra should win, the circumstances of the battle would obviously have to be different.

But they can’t win it, because Antonius, due to his limited military skills, completely botched the whole campaign. On September 2nd he never fought to win, he fought to run away with as much as possible. For them to win it they should replan the whole thing from the beginning, and in that case there would probably be no battle at Actium.

 

[isabella]

The assumption here is that Mark Antony and Cleopatra wins the battle of Actium, although Agrippa might of course win a later battle.



If Antony and Cleopatra should win, the circumstances of the battle would obviously have to be different.

But they can’t win it, because Antonius, due to his limited military skills, completely botched the whole campaign. On September 2nd he never fought to win, he fought to run away with as much as possible. For them to win it they should replan the whole thing from the beginning, and in that case there would probably be no battle at Actium.

The point is who Actium was truly Octavian’s masterpiece as the truth is who Mark Antony and Cleopatra had win there (they were under siege and needed to break it for going away) but Octavian was able to steal Antony’s army with his lies/propaganda.

 

[Sertorius126]

The point is who Actium was truly Octavian’s masterpiece as the truth is who Mark Antony and Cleopatra had win there (they were under siege and needed to break it for going away) but Octavian was able to steal Antony’s army with his lies/propaganda.

What? Antonius lost, fair and square, he was stuck in a marsh, his supply line broken, his army dying of sickness, his allies abandoning him, and at the end he lost all his land army, most of his fleet and all of his credibility. The “siege” was the result of Antonius’ strategic incompetence, Agrippa mopped his soldiers’ latrines’ floor with Antonius. You shouldn’t go from one extreme to the other. There’s never been better propaganda than the one with some truth in it, and the truth is that Antonius, while not dumb or bewitched, wasn’t really the brightest mind in the room, that he sided with Cleopatra when he should have ditched her, and that he was a good general only when facing people more incompetent than him. Not all what Octavian said was real, but neither all of it was a lie, just a very carefully crafted blur.

 

[piratedude]

While Actium can't be completely turned around by Antonius that doesn't mean it has to be a clear victory for Octavianus-Agrippa. Antonius may not be on Julius Caesar's level of ridiculously lucky, but he did have a habit of avoiding complete destruction and pulling his men out of the fire.

So the best way for him to salvage Actium is to let Cleo make a break for Egypt with the treasury, but stay with his men and with draw to his allies.

In fact i believe theres a TL around here about just that, though i think its petered out

Edit: here it is. And yes, its sadly been abandoned.

 

[Sertorius126]

While Actium can't be completely turned around by Antonius that doesn't mean it has to be a clear victory for Octavianus-Agrippa. Antonius may not be on Julius Caesar's level of ridiculously lucky, but he did have a habit of avoiding complete destruction and pulling his men out of the fire.

So the best way for him to salvage Actium is to let Cleo make a break for Egypt with the treasury, but stay with his men and with draw to his allies.

In fact i believe theres a TL around here about just that, though i think its petered out

Edit: here it is. And yes, its sadly been abandoned.

Caesar wasn’t just lucky tough, he had vision, a solid plan for every situation, and more importantly, cold blood. Antonius had none of the above. If he had stayed with his army, Octavian and Agrippa would have simply starved all of them out. Antonius had tried several times to break through with some cavalry maneuvers, and he failed, the whole point of Actium was so that he could get away from Agrippa’s chokehold. Retreating in Thessaly, with all the massive defections occurring in his camp, wouldn’t have helped him, Agrippa would have simply done what Pompey couldn’t do to Caesar and it’d be game over for Antonius. His “habit” of avoiding complete destruction can’t mask the fact that out of 4 campaigns he led, he almost met total destruction in two and actually met it in one. The only one he won was against green troopers led by green commanders, and one of them was completely inept at it.