WI: Marinid victory at Rio Salado (1340)

[GauchoBadger]

What if the moroccan marinid sultan Abu Al-Hasan Ali had defeated the castilians and portuguese at the Battle Of Rio Salado (October 1340, also known as the Battle Of Tarifa), under the pretext of estabilishing protection over the remaining iberian moorish taifas?
For how long could the reconquista, as a complete event, be delayed?
What are the butterflies on marinid Morocco? Can they emerge as an equal power to the iberian kingdoms? If so, then what are the effects on spanish colonization and sea exploration?

 

[B-29_Bomber]

October 1840

I am become confused...

 

[GauchoBadger]

I am become confused...

My bad. Fixed.

 

[Evil Crusader]

Half a century tops - much like the preceding Battle of Sagrajas, it only works as a tide stemmer. Once the dynasty falls (and it will, as such is the nature of Moroccan history of the period) all the respite gained is suddenly lost. And unlike Sagrajas, it probably will be a closer affair rather than a near crushdown.

 

[B-29_Bomber]

Half a century tops - much like the preceding Battle of Sagrajas, it only works as a tide stemmer. Once the dynasty falls (and it will, as such is the nature of Moroccan history of the period) all the respite gained is suddenly lost. And unlike Sagrajas, it probably will be a closer affair rather than a near crushdown.

I think it depends on what kind of victory it is and what the follow up is.

If the Kings of Castille and Portugal both die and things fall apart for those two kingdoms and then the Marinids retake everything South of Toledo, then I think you could see a Muslim state in Iberia last into Modernity.


Not guaranteed by any stretch, but it is theoretically possible.

 

[GauchoBadger]

I think it depends on what kind of victory it is and what the follow up is.
If the Kings of Castille and Portugal both die and things fall apart for those two kingdoms and then the Marinids retake everything South of Toledo, then I think you could see a Muslim state in Iberia last into Modernity.
Not guaranteed by any stretch, but it is theoretically possible.

How much of Granada's population was muslim? If the iberians manage to conquer the place later in history, they'll be facing larger problems (maybe rebellions) as a longer-lasting Granada may end up developing an unique national identity.
Personally, i think anything north of the Guadalquivir river is a foregone conclusion for the moors, but they could estabilish a better-lasting presence in the portions they still control.