In 460, Majorian was preparing to invade the Vandal Kingdom. He gathered the fleets meant for the invasion at Portus Illicitanus, but while the ships were docked there, traitors paid off by the Vandals destroyed them, forcing him to cancel his attack.

What if the ships weren't destroyed?
 
In 460, Majorian was preparing to invade the Vandal Kingdom. He gathered the fleets meant for the invasion at Portus Illicitanus, but while the ships were docked there, traitors paid off by the Vandals destroyed them, forcing him to cancel his attack.

What if the ships weren't destroyed?
I started a tl on this but i got to ahead of myself. If his fleet wasnt destroyed theres a good chance he would have lead a successful war against the vandals with the reconquest as the end result, he then could have probably created a late empire dynasty, of course hed have many opponents, ricimer, visigtohts and various germanic kings and his own people
 
Majorian takes back North Africa and lives a bit longer, probably.

But the structural problems of the late empire are still there, and he'd have to deal with things like unhelpful landowners if he ever wanted to have a strong empire.
 
Two major points. First, with the recon quest of Africa the most valuable province of the western empire is back under his control. That will mean major revenues coming in, which the west had none of by the end. It also means the Eastern Empire can assist more if things keep going down the crapper. OTL the failed invasion that came later shot the east’s bolt and left it unable to assist in any meaningful way.
 
The revenues of Africa likely mean the military superiority of the Western Empire over its western peers returns.

The problem is still in the dysfunction of imperial government. If Majorian rules for a long time, perhaps that changes. Italy had rich cities but useless and obstructionist rural landowners. Africa provides a tipping point of sorts.

That being said, any notion of reconquest needs at least one big ally outside the east.
 
In the short term the empire will be much better off. One historian (I can’t remember the name to save my life) even said that so long as they held Africa then they could survive indefinitely.

Africa would provide Majorian with plenty of gold and recruits. With this gold and these recruits he could hold onto power and do whatever he wants. In the later empire your ability to hold the throne centered around being a successful military leader and paying your troops on time. So with a number of victories under his belt and now a lot of gold in his pockets he wouldn’t have to worry about his troops betraying him.

Majorian seemed to understand that there were major issues internally and tried to enact reforms. If he can keep control over his armies the senate wouldn’t dare oppose him. If he can rule 20 or so years longer than he did IOTL then the possibilities are endless. If he can have a successful reign and have his successor take over peacefully then who knows what could happen.

At the very least Majorian holds the empire together till he dies, at which point his gains are lost due to another round of civil wars and coups. At best he becomes a western alexios who brings the empire back from the brink.
 
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In the short term the empire will be much better off. One historian (I can’t remember the name to save my life) even said that so long as they held Africa then they could survive indefinitely.
You're thinking of Peter Heather, and I agree with this assessment. With North Africa the empire: has regained control of the Mediterranean, has a vital revenue stream, and can now comfortably feed itself.
 
Assuming he has a long reign afterwards, what are the WRE's most pressing problems, and what can he plausibly do about them?
The collapse of the middle class due to overtaxation making up for the inability of the poor and unwillingness of the rich to pay, the more or less complete loss of Gaul to barbarians, the ongoing destruction of non-gold Roman currency from inflation, and the unwillingness of Roman citizens to be soldiers. Basically the same issues that had plagued the empire for 200 years, only far far bigger in scale.
 
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trajen777

Banned
Agree with above. If the fleet had sailed, and they win, (80% ) then the revenues to pay the troops, add troops, retake Spain and Gaul are highly probable. Africa would have :
1 expanded the military
2 supported the legitimacy of the reighn
3 regained Spain ( with Gaul also taken Spain could have been secured from raids and been very profitable)
4 no eastern lost invasion to jointly destroy the Gauls so a greater eastern empire

It could have been a restoration as great as aurilian
 
Agree with above. If the fleet had sailed, and they win, (80% ) then the revenues to pay the troops, add troops, retake Spain and Gaul are highly probable. Africa would have :
1 expanded the military
2 supported the legitimacy of the reighn
3 regained Spain ( with Gaul also taken Spain could have been secured from raids and been very profitable)
4 no eastern lost invasion to jointly destroy the Gauls so a greater eastern empire

It could have been a restoration as great as aurilian
What? Gaul and Spain had already been retaken. And what are you talking about when you say “no eastern lost invasion to jointly destroy the Gauls so a greater eastern empire”?
 

trajen777

Banned
What? Gaul and Spain had already been retaken. And what are you talking about when you say “no eastern lost invasion to jointly destroy the Gauls so a greater eastern empire”?

The Eastern and Western Empires put a combined invasion force together in 468 that met with disaster. Both empires knew that without N Africa the Western Roman Empire could not survive. The loss of the fleet (mostly paid for by the Eastern Roman Empire left it bankrupt), If you have Majorian win in 460 the invasion of 468 is butterflyed away so the eastern empire is spared the loss of their fleet, massive resources and loss of troops,

n 468, both the Western and Eastern empires attempted to conquer Africa again with the 'most ambitious campaign ever launched against the Vandal state'; primary sources suggest that the fleet numbered 1,113 ships and carried 100,000 men but this figure has been rejected by modern historiography, with Peter Heather suggesting 30,000 troops and 50,000 soldiers and sailors combined, based on 16,000 Roman soldiers conveyed on 500 ships in 532. Andy Merrills and Richard Miles have asserted that the operation was undoubtedly extensive and 'deserves admiration for its logistical brilliance'.[22] At a naval battle in Cape Bon, Tunisia, the Vandals destroyed the Western fleet and part of the Eastern through the use of fire ships.[14] Following up the attack, the Vandals tried to invade the Peloponnese, but were driven back by the Maniots at Kenipolis with heavy losses. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vandal_Kingdom


As to the conquest of Gaul and Spain -- Majorian captured much of each but not both - and leaving large parts of the conquests as federate parts (ie Vistagoths)

"During his four-year reign Majorian reconquered most of Hispania and southern Gaul, meanwhile reducing the Visigoths, Burgundians and Suevi to federate status."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Majorian

400px-MajorianEmpire.png
 
The Eastern and Western Empires put a combined invasion force together in 468 that met with disaster. Both empires knew that without N Africa the Western Roman Empire could not survive. The loss of the fleet (mostly paid for by the Eastern Roman Empire left it bankrupt), If you have Majorian win in 460 the invasion of 468 is butterflyed away so the eastern empire is spared the loss of their fleet, massive resources and loss of troops,

n 468, both the Western and Eastern empires attempted to conquer Africa again with the 'most ambitious campaign ever launched against the Vandal state'; primary sources suggest that the fleet numbered 1,113 ships and carried 100,000 men but this figure has been rejected by modern historiography, with Peter Heather suggesting 30,000 troops and 50,000 soldiers and sailors combined, based on 16,000 Roman soldiers conveyed on 500 ships in 532. Andy Merrills and Richard Miles have asserted that the operation was undoubtedly extensive and 'deserves admiration for its logistical brilliance'.[22] At a naval battle in Cape Bon, Tunisia, the Vandals destroyed the Western fleet and part of the Eastern through the use of fire ships.[14] Following up the attack, the Vandals tried to invade the Peloponnese, but were driven back by the Maniots at Kenipolis with heavy losses. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vandal_Kingdom


As to the conquest of Gaul and Spain -- Majorian captured much of each but not both - and leaving large parts of the conquests as federate parts (ie Vistagoths)

"During his four-year reign Majorian reconquered most of Hispania and southern Gaul, meanwhile reducing the Visigoths, Burgundians and Suevi to federate status."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Majorian

400px-MajorianEmpire.png
Ok thanks, the way you worded it in your original comment was a bit confusing.

As for retaking the rest of Gaul and Hispania that’s going to be difficult. Even though he had taken much of their lands the burgundians, Visigoths, and suebi were still very strong. Trying to take every last scrap of land from them is not going to be easy in the short term .
 

trajen777

Banned
Ok thanks, the way you worded it in your original comment was a bit confusing.

As for retaking the rest of Gaul and Hispania that’s going to be difficult. Even though he had taken much of their lands the burgundians, Visigoths, and suebi were still very strong. Trying to take every last scrap of land from them is not going to be easy in the short term .

Yep -- when i text on my phone i suck at pecking -- ha ha --- my feeling / hope would be a conquest of the Vandals in 460 - 43 // then from these resources gained over the next 20 years a concerted effort could be made (my guess is very successfully ) with the massive influx in finances from North Africa.
 

trajen777

Banned
The interesting parts of this scenario is the aftereffects :

1. With new found wealth and credibility does he reform the economy, farming, peace ? Conquer the rest of Spain (get the mines going again) -- the rest of Gaul conquest ?
2. Eastern Rome -- without the losses of 468 -- what do they do with all of these resources (in Treadgolds book they were financially exhausted for a generation) -- Infrastructure ? Fortifications, additional troops?, take over the arab states so they build more trade with India ?
 
Eastern Rome -- without the losses of 468 -- what do they do with all of these resources (in Treadgolds book they were financially exhausted for a generation) -- Infrastructure ? Fortifications, additional troops?, take over the arab states so they build more trade with India ?
Deal with the Ostrogoths. Especially since there’s no Italy to send them against.
 
The interesting parts of this scenario is the aftereffects :

1. With new found wealth and credibility does he reform the economy, farming, peace ? Conquer the rest of Spain (get the mines going again) -- the rest of Gaul conquest ?
Reforming the army, government, and economy are the most pressing issues. He did seem concerned with making changes as seen with some of the laws passed under his rule. With the soldiers and gold I can see him continuing with these changes.
 
After africa I suspect Majorian would have focused on establishing something resembling an effective government in Rome, rather than risking everything trying to punch the foedarati in Spain and gaul into submission more than they already were. I dont think Imperial rule outside of Italy and to an extent Africa would be particularly substantial, but given a few decades of consolidation it may be possible to put the empire back on its feet and along the path to eventually come to grips with Gaul.

Mu guess, if he does eventually go to war again, would be against someone who isn't already nominally a vassal so as to not rock the boat- possibly someone in the Balkans, as a joint expedition with the Eastern Romans.
 

trajen777

Banned
Reforming the army, government, and economy are the most pressing issues. He did seem concerned with making changes as seen with some of the laws passed under his rule. With the soldiers and gold I can see him continuing with these changes.


The reforms i know about are very well summed up here : https://military.wikia.org/wiki/Majorian

Sounds like :
1. Army reform
2. Getting more Roman citizens trained in weapons
3. Monetary reform -- making the balance or wealth work for the empire vs the "powerful"
4. Reforms of marriage to encourage more kids
5. Farm reform
So he was going to bring key reforms to Rome

I think you would see
A. NA conquered 460 - 463
B. reforms 463 - 470
C. Reforming army and some light activity - 465 - 470
D. Major campaigns in Gaul -- 470 - 480
E. Reforms 480 - 500

He was 40 at the time of death so to 480 would be 60 -- and the reforms till 500 would be with himself or partially successor, Is this long enough to build a succession campaign ?
 
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