WI: Ludendorff is Killed at Liege

[mjwebb76]

The premise is fairly simple. Erich Ludendorff took some rather extreme risks capturing the Fortress of Liege. Imagine that he had been killed. I actually suspect this would have a minimal impact on the Western Front. It might slow down the capture of Liege by a day or two but ultimately I suspect this would have a relatively small impact. I would invite disagreement on this point.

The far larger impact, I would suggest would be in the East. In late August, of OTL, as the Russians began advancing far more quickly than anticipated Ludendorff was suddenly sent East and picked up the (recently retired) Paul Von Hindenburg on the train ride. They went on to command the armies that won the stunning battle of Tannenberg completely destroying one Russian Army and forcing another to retreat. Therefore, the question is would the Germans have won a similar victory with another pair of generals. If the Germans had not won such a stunning victory what impact would this have on the war.

 

[H.Flashman(VC)]

This should be after 1900.

 

[mjwebb76]

This should be after 1900.

You are right. I will try to move it there.

 

[UnaiB]

@CalBear

 

[Riain]

Ludy used Max Hoffmann's plan at Tannenburg, so if he didn't go someone else might change that plan and it would be worse.

The big impacts would be in 1915 and beyond due to Ludys poorer grasp of modern warfare compared to Falkenhayen. Someone else might be less inclined to try big sweeps that go nowhere and actually capture Riga in 1915 for example.

 

[NoMommsen]

Ludy used Max Hoffmann's plan at Tannenburg, so if he didn't go someone else might change that plan and it would be worse.
...

It actually was Max Hoffmanns plan that was also executed. ... no changes by Ludendorff made to it.

Once Ludendorff reacted panicking on a report of retreating german troops he almost folded the same way Prittwitz did beforehand. Only Hindenburg taking Ludy aside for a ... wee talk clmed him down enough to let the troops and staff do their work as (by Hoffmann) intended.
(main source Hoffmanns diaries but also by Groener after the war, as he had been told by Hindenburg).

What did change some timings of the plan were mainly General Francois "independant" decisions according to the by him assessed state of readiness of his troops when exactly to attack where exactly with his I.Corps (though still staying within the 'main idea' of the plan).

Therefore I would be rather confident that things at East Prussia in this opening phase would mostly happen as IOTL.

...
The big impacts would be in 1915 and beyond due to Ludys poorer grasp of modern warfare compared to Falkenhayen. Someone else might be less inclined to try big sweeps that go nowhere and actually capture Riga in 1915 for example.

Not to forget, that the mostly eastwards efforts of the german army in 1915 would rather be directed ioward the western front much earlier.

... with tons of or tons weighting possible butterflies.

 

[John Farson]

Is Wonder Woman involved?

 

[mjwebb76]

It actually was Max Hoffmanns plan that was also executed. ... no changes by Ludendorff made to it.

Once Ludendorff reacted panicking on a report of retreating german troops he almost folded the same way Prittwitz did beforehand. Only Hindenburg taking Ludy aside for a ... wee talk clmed him down enough to let the troops and staff do their work as (by Hoffmann) intended.
(main source Hoffmanns diaries but also by Groener after the war, as he had been told by Hindenburg).

What did change some timings of the plan were mainly General Francois "independant" decisions according to the by him assessed state of readiness of his troops when exactly to attack where exactly with his I.Corps (though still staying within the 'main idea' of the plan).

Therefore I would be rather confident that things at East Prussia in this opening phase would mostly happen as IOTL.
Not to forget, that the mostly eastwards efforts of the german army in 1915 would rather be directed ioward the western front much earlier.

... with tons of or tons weighting possible butterflies.

Without Ludendorff you probably do not have Hindenburg either since he was apparently chosen (to come out of retirement) because he was lived near the rail line Ludendorff would be travelling. Therefore, would Hoffman or some other Prussian general have had the same success? In other words, did Russia lose the battle (and as such would have lost to anyone) or did the Prussians win the battle (meaning the choice of generals is significant). I would fully admit this is not my area of expertise (having read a few books on the topic) and would be interested in the thoughts of the real experts.

 

[Mikestone8]

Without Ludendorff you probably do not have Hindenburg either since he was apparently chosen (to come out of retirement) because he was lived near the rail line Ludendorff would be travelling.

But wouldn't anyone else going from Koblenz (where OHL was at that time) to East Prussia be likely to use the same railway?

 

[rast]

Having a plan - and forcing some reluctant subordinates to execute it, is quite something else entirely. So, absent Hindenburg and Ludendorff, there's no guarantee that Hoffmann's (and Grünert's, by the way) famous plan will be executed at all. - In fact, the loss of L. means a severe problem for Moltke: normally, L. would have become M.'s chief of operations - after the Liège affair had been resolved. Throwing him into the breach in the east was the ultimate stopgap. - Without L. there's nobody left. Schmidt von Knobelsdorf would be the logical choice now, but you can't take him away from the Crown Prince because that would leave 5th Army leaderless. And taking Kuhl away from Kluck won't work either, because Kluck has no general staff training. - Bottom line: leaving Prittwitz and Waldersee in place is perhaps the most reasonable solution, once L. is dead.