In January 1670 Emperor Leopold I suffered a severe illness that, at least for a short time, led some people in the Imperial court to start thinking about what would have happened had he died. Of course IOTL he recovered quickly but if he had died at that point it would have ended the Austrian branch of the Habsburgs. In January of 1670 Leopold was still married to his niece Margaret Theresa of Spain. She had previously had a daughter, Maria Antonia, and was at the time pregnant again with a son who IOTL would die shortly after his birth the following month. I would think that the stress of her husband's death isn't going to help her pregnancy along so its still likely the child doesn't live. So with that the male line of Ferdinand I is ended and the only remaining male Habsburg left is Leopold's nephew and MT's brother, the sickly boy King Charles II of Spain whom everyone expects to drop dead any day. So what happens now? Is it even possible to avoid a total collapse of the Austrian dynastic state?
I believe the order of succession would be as follows for Austria and Bohemia and in theory Hungary. Its ironic that the Habsburgs, while having no male heirs, have a plethora of Archduchesses.
1. Maria Antonia of Austria b.1669 An infant barely a year old. A dangerous thing to hang the fate of a dynasty on.
2. Mariana of Austria b. 1634 Leopold's eldest sister and Ferdinand III's eldest daughter. Widow of Philip IV of Spain and regent for her son Charles. She's not going to remarry nor have any more children nor likely ever leave Spain.
3. Charles II of Spain b. 1661 Mariana's son and current King of Spain, a sickly child who's health is so precarious that Leopold had only a year prior agreed on a partition treaty with Louis XIV in order to divide up the Spanish Empire upon his death.
4. Margaret Theresa of Spain b. 1651 Mariana's daughter and Leopold's widow who is an heiress in her own right as a granddaughter of Ferdinand III. Theoretically young enough to remarry and perpetuate her claim beyond Maria Antonia. One interesting point is that any male children she might have from a second marriage, while having a claim inferior to Maria Antonia's to Austria, would have the superior claim to Spain.
5. Eleonora Maria of Austria b. 1653 Ferdinand III's second daughter. A marriage contract was signed with Michal Korybut of Poland in December but the wedding has not yet taken place. If the marriage still goes ahead she'll have to renounce her claim to Austria but does it still happen?
6. Maria Anna Joseph of Austria b. 1654 Ferdinand III's third daughter. No marriage negotiations had occurred for her as of yet.
7a. Ferdinand Maria of Bavaria b.1636. Grandson of Ferdinand II via his daughter Maria Anna of Austria. Current Elector of Bavaria. Though I believe her marriage was likely subject to a renunciation so its unclear if her line has a legitimate claim.
7b. Claudia Felicitas b.1653 Last surviving member of the Tyrolean line of Archduke Leopold V (younger brother of Ferdinand II). Her mother Anna de' Medici had been pushing her rights against Leopold's claims since this branch died off in the male line with Sigismund Francis in 1665. Anna could also potentially argue that if the male line is ended then Tyrol should pass to the female heirs of its branch rather than the female heirs of the main line.
Bohemia had been so thoroughly crushed during the 30YW that they will follow the Austrian succession without much push back but Hungary is another matter. The Hungarian Estates are still truculent and jealously guard their privileges and Hungary is a powder keg in early 1670. The magnate conspiracy is ongoing and IOTL Leopold would go on to arrest the conspirators later that year and touch off a short lived rebellion. The conspirators would almost certainly avail themselves of the opportunity provided by Leopold's death and proclaim their right to elect a new King. Presumably the Austrians will try to delay any formal succession until MT gives birth in the hopes that a miracle occurs and Austria is blessed with a posthumous male heir. The Hungarians may go along with that if only to allow themselves time to gather their forces and sound out candidates for the Hungarian throne but things will come to a head when MT fails to deliver a living Archduke. But who would the magnates look to elect as King of Hungary? Is a successful rebellion possible or maybe even probable?
The Imperial election cannot be delayed and the Electors will gather to select Leopold's successor probably in February. Since they will be down a vote with the position of King of Bohemia in abeyance pending MT's pregnancy its possible the proceedings are dragged out until the Bohemian succession is resolved, likely upon Maria Antonia and thus an Austrian Regency. Does Louis XIV put himself forward as a candidate? I don't think he'd find much actual support as even the most friendly German princes will be wary of a strong French King ruling over the Empire at a time when the apparent collapse of Austria is leaving a huge power vacuum in Germany. I think the most probable German candidates would be Philip William of Pfalz Neuburg or Ferdinand Maria of Bavaria. Philip William has the advantage of being older and thus he might be seen as a suitable placeholder/compromise. But are there any other probable candidates?
As for France, Louis is already preparing for his Dutch War. IOTL he would occupy Lorraine that summer and send its Duke into exile yet again. The Treaty of Dover was signed with England in June and the French were working on agreements with various German states. Presumably Louis will now view his partition agreement with Leopold as a dead letter and expect to take all of Spain. But how does this shift French policy? Does Louis still strike at the Dutch or does he try to meddle in the Austrian succession, perhaps to aid the Hungarians? It seems like the Dutch will have a harder time without Leopold to help reinforce an anti-French coalition. Brandenburg won't risk doing much on its own and Leopold's successor as Emperor will be weak (Neuburg) or vaguely pro-French (Bavaria). Knocking out the Dutch while Austria is in chaos could be the key to securing the Spanish succession. But if the Hungarians have an early success the temptation to assist their revolt and completely destroy Austria may be too irresistible for Louis especially if he can put a French prince on the Hungarian throne.
Does Charles II of England have any concerns about the potential for too much French aggrandizement? Would he have any second thoughts which could forestall an agreement as was reached ITOL at Dover?
I don't know how this would affect Poland. Would Michal Korybut have second thoughts about marrying Eleonora now that the Austrians have lost their grip on the Empire and Hungary is in revolt? Or would her position as a potential heiress make up for that? As for the Ottomans, would the Porte be inclined to cut a more lenient deal to end hostilities in Ukraine so they can take advantage of the situation in Hungary?
In some ways this seems to be a set up for a huge French wank which would see the French gaining Spain and its Empire while Austria, Bohemia and Hungary are divided up among rival claimants. But is it possible that a competent Austrian regency could overcome rebellion in Hungary while initial French successes bring forward the creation of a broad but highly unstable anti-French coalition across western Europe?
Other miscellaneous dynastic considerations;
Philippe d'Orleans could still be looking for a new wife later in the year. But the situation would be vastly different so the Palatine match may be less appealing than say to Philip William's daughter and Leopold's OTL third wife Eleonore. Or perhaps even to an Archduchess like Claudia Felicitas with her potential claim to the Tyrol.
James of York is also likely looking for a second wife before too long and again the calculation could be very different than it was ITOL with implications for the future English succession.
Mariana and her daughter Margaret Theresa would probably see the solution to the Habsburg crisis to be the marriage of Charles and Maria Antonia. Aside from being a terrible idea that will only lead to the total extinction of their line it would be opposed by everyone outside of Spain and Austria.
Don Juan Jose, Philip IV's illegitimate son, is also still around. He has no claim to anything but could be seen as a useful vehicle for continuing the Habsburg line if married to one of the available Archduchesses, say Claudia Felicitas or Maria Anna Josepha. I'm sure Mariana would be happy to get him out of Spain so Tyrol could be seen as a suitable way of getting rid of him though in the long run it could create more problems than it solves.
The Dowager Empress Eleonora Gonzaga may play an outsized role in Vienna. She's more politically experienced than the still young MT and she'll probably be concerned to safeguard the prospects of her daughters with Ferdinand III.
@VVD0D95 @Kellan Sullivan @isabella @Jan Olbracht @Emperor Constantine @Valena
I believe the order of succession would be as follows for Austria and Bohemia and in theory Hungary. Its ironic that the Habsburgs, while having no male heirs, have a plethora of Archduchesses.
1. Maria Antonia of Austria b.1669 An infant barely a year old. A dangerous thing to hang the fate of a dynasty on.
2. Mariana of Austria b. 1634 Leopold's eldest sister and Ferdinand III's eldest daughter. Widow of Philip IV of Spain and regent for her son Charles. She's not going to remarry nor have any more children nor likely ever leave Spain.
3. Charles II of Spain b. 1661 Mariana's son and current King of Spain, a sickly child who's health is so precarious that Leopold had only a year prior agreed on a partition treaty with Louis XIV in order to divide up the Spanish Empire upon his death.
4. Margaret Theresa of Spain b. 1651 Mariana's daughter and Leopold's widow who is an heiress in her own right as a granddaughter of Ferdinand III. Theoretically young enough to remarry and perpetuate her claim beyond Maria Antonia. One interesting point is that any male children she might have from a second marriage, while having a claim inferior to Maria Antonia's to Austria, would have the superior claim to Spain.
5. Eleonora Maria of Austria b. 1653 Ferdinand III's second daughter. A marriage contract was signed with Michal Korybut of Poland in December but the wedding has not yet taken place. If the marriage still goes ahead she'll have to renounce her claim to Austria but does it still happen?
6. Maria Anna Joseph of Austria b. 1654 Ferdinand III's third daughter. No marriage negotiations had occurred for her as of yet.
7a. Ferdinand Maria of Bavaria b.1636. Grandson of Ferdinand II via his daughter Maria Anna of Austria. Current Elector of Bavaria. Though I believe her marriage was likely subject to a renunciation so its unclear if her line has a legitimate claim.
7b. Claudia Felicitas b.1653 Last surviving member of the Tyrolean line of Archduke Leopold V (younger brother of Ferdinand II). Her mother Anna de' Medici had been pushing her rights against Leopold's claims since this branch died off in the male line with Sigismund Francis in 1665. Anna could also potentially argue that if the male line is ended then Tyrol should pass to the female heirs of its branch rather than the female heirs of the main line.
Bohemia had been so thoroughly crushed during the 30YW that they will follow the Austrian succession without much push back but Hungary is another matter. The Hungarian Estates are still truculent and jealously guard their privileges and Hungary is a powder keg in early 1670. The magnate conspiracy is ongoing and IOTL Leopold would go on to arrest the conspirators later that year and touch off a short lived rebellion. The conspirators would almost certainly avail themselves of the opportunity provided by Leopold's death and proclaim their right to elect a new King. Presumably the Austrians will try to delay any formal succession until MT gives birth in the hopes that a miracle occurs and Austria is blessed with a posthumous male heir. The Hungarians may go along with that if only to allow themselves time to gather their forces and sound out candidates for the Hungarian throne but things will come to a head when MT fails to deliver a living Archduke. But who would the magnates look to elect as King of Hungary? Is a successful rebellion possible or maybe even probable?
The Imperial election cannot be delayed and the Electors will gather to select Leopold's successor probably in February. Since they will be down a vote with the position of King of Bohemia in abeyance pending MT's pregnancy its possible the proceedings are dragged out until the Bohemian succession is resolved, likely upon Maria Antonia and thus an Austrian Regency. Does Louis XIV put himself forward as a candidate? I don't think he'd find much actual support as even the most friendly German princes will be wary of a strong French King ruling over the Empire at a time when the apparent collapse of Austria is leaving a huge power vacuum in Germany. I think the most probable German candidates would be Philip William of Pfalz Neuburg or Ferdinand Maria of Bavaria. Philip William has the advantage of being older and thus he might be seen as a suitable placeholder/compromise. But are there any other probable candidates?
As for France, Louis is already preparing for his Dutch War. IOTL he would occupy Lorraine that summer and send its Duke into exile yet again. The Treaty of Dover was signed with England in June and the French were working on agreements with various German states. Presumably Louis will now view his partition agreement with Leopold as a dead letter and expect to take all of Spain. But how does this shift French policy? Does Louis still strike at the Dutch or does he try to meddle in the Austrian succession, perhaps to aid the Hungarians? It seems like the Dutch will have a harder time without Leopold to help reinforce an anti-French coalition. Brandenburg won't risk doing much on its own and Leopold's successor as Emperor will be weak (Neuburg) or vaguely pro-French (Bavaria). Knocking out the Dutch while Austria is in chaos could be the key to securing the Spanish succession. But if the Hungarians have an early success the temptation to assist their revolt and completely destroy Austria may be too irresistible for Louis especially if he can put a French prince on the Hungarian throne.
Does Charles II of England have any concerns about the potential for too much French aggrandizement? Would he have any second thoughts which could forestall an agreement as was reached ITOL at Dover?
I don't know how this would affect Poland. Would Michal Korybut have second thoughts about marrying Eleonora now that the Austrians have lost their grip on the Empire and Hungary is in revolt? Or would her position as a potential heiress make up for that? As for the Ottomans, would the Porte be inclined to cut a more lenient deal to end hostilities in Ukraine so they can take advantage of the situation in Hungary?
In some ways this seems to be a set up for a huge French wank which would see the French gaining Spain and its Empire while Austria, Bohemia and Hungary are divided up among rival claimants. But is it possible that a competent Austrian regency could overcome rebellion in Hungary while initial French successes bring forward the creation of a broad but highly unstable anti-French coalition across western Europe?
Other miscellaneous dynastic considerations;
Philippe d'Orleans could still be looking for a new wife later in the year. But the situation would be vastly different so the Palatine match may be less appealing than say to Philip William's daughter and Leopold's OTL third wife Eleonore. Or perhaps even to an Archduchess like Claudia Felicitas with her potential claim to the Tyrol.
James of York is also likely looking for a second wife before too long and again the calculation could be very different than it was ITOL with implications for the future English succession.
Mariana and her daughter Margaret Theresa would probably see the solution to the Habsburg crisis to be the marriage of Charles and Maria Antonia. Aside from being a terrible idea that will only lead to the total extinction of their line it would be opposed by everyone outside of Spain and Austria.
Don Juan Jose, Philip IV's illegitimate son, is also still around. He has no claim to anything but could be seen as a useful vehicle for continuing the Habsburg line if married to one of the available Archduchesses, say Claudia Felicitas or Maria Anna Josepha. I'm sure Mariana would be happy to get him out of Spain so Tyrol could be seen as a suitable way of getting rid of him though in the long run it could create more problems than it solves.
The Dowager Empress Eleonora Gonzaga may play an outsized role in Vienna. She's more politically experienced than the still young MT and she'll probably be concerned to safeguard the prospects of her daughters with Ferdinand III.
@VVD0D95 @Kellan Sullivan @isabella @Jan Olbracht @Emperor Constantine @Valena
