WI: Kuomintang collapse in the midst of WW2; CCP takes the wheel?

GauchoBadger

GauchoBadger

I've seen multiple people in this board claim that Chiang Kai-Shek's pro-US Kuomintang regime in China was dangerously close to collapsing from both internal (communist agitation, corruption) and external (Japan, of course) threats in the midst of World War 2, mostly in between the crucial years of 1942 and 1944. Fortunately for them, they managed to defeat the Japanese before a possible, significant political collapse. The KMT got out of the war greatly weakened, however, which greatly contributed to its demise in the Chinese mainland.
So, what if the Kuomintang had collapsed earlier, that is, in the midst of WW2? Mostly due to factors such as a drop in American support, Chiang dying, more successful Japanese advances against the interior, or a combination of all these. The Chinese Communist Party takes over the leadership of the national struggle, aided by a few KMT remnant elements. Come the war's end, China is already under communist control.
What would be the effects on the post-war situation in Asia?
Could Japan end up retaining Taiwan if Sino-American relations deteriorate fast enough?
What happens to Korea? Would anything change there?
 

Carl Schwamberger

GauchoBadger said:
...
So, what if the Kuomintang had collapsed earlier, that is, in the midst of WW2? Mostly due to factors such as a drop in American support, Chiang dying, more successful Japanese advances against the interior, or a combination of all these. The Chinese Communist Party takes over the leadership of the national struggle, aided by a few KMT remnant elements. Come the war's end, China is already under communist control.
What would be the effects on the post-war situation in Asia?...
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Mao Communits were still fairly thin on the ground in those years. They had firm control of their core provinces & were well organized, and were represented in many regions. But lacked the numbers. They also lacked military material on the necessary scale. OTL they had a couple years after Japans collapse to organize the larger military and political leadership on the necessary scale to take over in 1948-49. That would be problematic while Japan is still aa player. Japan had a robust military & the support of a fair number of warlords. Without the distraction of the KMT the Japanese army can focus on rooting out Communist insurgents & political organizers. Something they had some skill at, with brute force if nothing else. Bottom line is the Communists don't have a big immediate gain from KMT collapse.
 
Remitonov

Remitonov

Carl Schwamberger said:
It occurs to me that if the Communist take over from 1945 lacks large scale fighting with the KMT armies then an intervention in Korea in 1950 may not go as well. Less experience, less skill.
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That's if they can even beat the Japanese. If the KMT faltered and collapsed against them, what hope does the CCP have with one army and irregular guerillas at their command? The CCP took advantage of the Sino-Japanese war to hold back their forces while the KMT took the brunt, and then proceeded to build up their armies in the following civil war with Soviet help. No such luck if the meat shield stops being a meat shield.
 
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