Like the title implied. What if just like our tl the hostage crisis goes off on the American Embassy in Tehran, but before the American can react the Soviets/KGB manage to get them out and into west Germany. What would be the political consequences for this towards the Carter administration and the upcoming election? Would there be consequences within the politburo as well?
WI: KGB saves the hostages from the Iranian hostage crisis 1979?
- Thread starter Historicaltrolling
- Start date
The Soviets just won a massive PR victory by painting themselves as gallant heroes. (I don't see any consequences within the politburo as this will only improve the image of the Soviet Union in the international scene)
In no order
1). The USSR/KGB gets the single best Propaganda coop of the cold war.
2). Carters admin looks like idiots.
3). Ultimately the Carter Admin is better off as the short term issue (see 2 above) is less damaging then the long term issue they had in Original timeline.
4). The Iran Revolution and the Hostage Crisis will be a LOT less significant historically.
1). The USSR/KGB gets the single best Propaganda coop of the cold war.
2). Carters admin looks like idiots.
3). Ultimately the Carter Admin is better off as the short term issue (see 2 above) is less damaging then the long term issue they had in Original timeline.
4). The Iran Revolution and the Hostage Crisis will be a LOT less significant historically.
The PR victory would be enormous for the Soviets, but i wonder what implication this has for the 1980 election.
Similar they did in Lebanon in the Beirut hostage crisis or maybe be able to make some military trade off under the table?
I don't think the counter-hostage-taking would work for the Iranian hostage crisis. They'd probably be more likely to resort to a conventional raid or something.
This will have little effect on the 1980 election. While in the OTL the Hostages being on the news every day (to one degree or another) did not help Carter the truth is that the economic mess was enough to make Carter a one term president. The US was not as devisive in polotics back then. Most folks flip flopped from one part to the other on presidential elections at that time. So the issue with the economy will be (and was) the driving factor of the election.
That being said Carter will not look as completely incompetent as he did, so perhaps he will be better positioned but that wont be enough to change the election results
Yes the USSR was very close physically, so close that according yo some sources they were concerned at the. time that if the US sent in the military to get its citizens back that they could accidentally get into a boarder clash with the. attacking US.
And i would. think that if the KGB got the hostages out it would be in the first day or two using more ”spy craft” and “espionage” then sending in the military. I cant picture the USSR sending in a military raid to free US citizrns. Now if they took both US and USSR citizens hostage i could see. the USSR rescuing both and the bragging about itp..
That being said Carter will not look as completely incompetent as he did, so perhaps he will be better positioned but that wont be enough to change the election results
Yes the USSR was very close physically, so close that according yo some sources they were concerned at the. time that if the US sent in the military to get its citizens back that they could accidentally get into a boarder clash with the. attacking US.
And i would. think that if the KGB got the hostages out it would be in the first day or two using more ”spy craft” and “espionage” then sending in the military. I cant picture the USSR sending in a military raid to free US citizrns. Now if they took both US and USSR citizens hostage i could see. the USSR rescuing both and the bragging about itp..
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Yes but getting to Tehran is not that simple on land And if you take the air route the Iranians have the tomcat
What do you think would be the best way ? VDV air drop or amphibious assault via caspian or fighting all the way to Tehran
Also want to ask, if KGB pulls this off, what will it do for future soviet Iran relations?
Little explanation what happen in Lebanon
September 1986, four Soviet diplomats were kidnaped by Shias’ Hezbollah, a radical, pro-Iranian group.
Their demands: Moscow must force the Syrian government to stop pro-Syrian militiamen from shelling rival Muslim positions.
to make there threat more serious they killed one of the Soviet diplomats !
Moscow send a KGB Alpha Group to Beirut, they spy out the Shias’ Hezbolla and act
they kidnaped and killed a relative of the leader of the Shias’ Hezbollah
and send victims head to him with note "we know were your family live"
The Shias’ Hezbolla released fast the three Soviet diplomats
For the rest of Lebanon civil war, no soviet were kidnap...
September 1986, four Soviet diplomats were kidnaped by Shias’ Hezbollah, a radical, pro-Iranian group.
Their demands: Moscow must force the Syrian government to stop pro-Syrian militiamen from shelling rival Muslim positions.
to make there threat more serious they killed one of the Soviet diplomats !
Moscow send a KGB Alpha Group to Beirut, they spy out the Shias’ Hezbolla and act
they kidnaped and killed a relative of the leader of the Shias’ Hezbollah
and send victims head to him with note "we know were your family live"
The Shias’ Hezbolla released fast the three Soviet diplomats
For the rest of Lebanon civil war, no soviet were kidnap...
Some of the USSR leaders I could see trying something like this, under the reasoning that the US may act in a highly irrational manner while the hostages are in Iran, and that irrationality creates serious existential risks. I don't recall who was pulling the strings back in 79-80 in the USSR. I don't know if it'd be enough to get Carter reelected, but it'd definitely make it closer. It would probably bring a significant warming of US-Soviet relations and might reduce the total nukes manufactured by around 10000 or so.
A fully attack and open declaration of war? Propably not, but I can see them using the opportunity to snap the Azeri and Turkmen areas of Iran to annex then into Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan SSR. I do wonder if Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan post 91 independence will be different now it's bigger?
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