WI: Kennedy doesn't run in 1960

[MorphyVSFischer]

For whatever reason, Kennedy can't or won't run in 1960 have him drop dead from his Addison's disease, decide it's to soon whatever, the point being he doesn't run.

Who wins the Democratic primary and can they beat Nixon?

 

[Eoin]

Humphrey would probably get the nomination.

 

[Zorqal]

Humphrey would probably get the nomination.

Why? He had far less support than Kennedy. Without him I'm guessing a lot of Kennedy's support could have gone to Meyner possibly, but not enough to take the nomination from LBJ, who was in second. Maybe we see a Johnson/Meyner ticket, which then loses to Nixon in '60. Whoever gets nominated I feel like their chances against Nixon aren't great.

 

[Colonel Zoidberg]

Why? He had far less support than Kennedy. Without him I'm guessing a lot of Kennedy's support could have gone to Meyner possibly, but not enough to take the nomination from LBJ, who was in second. Maybe we see a Johnson/Meyner ticket, which then loses to Nixon in '60. Whoever gets nominated I feel like their chances against Nixon aren't great.

Kennedy quite possibly won because he was charming and charismatic, and LBJ doesn't come close to equaling Kennedy there. So yes, Nixon wins.

I wonder this, though - how does Nixon handle the Cuban Missile Crisis, and does Lee Oswald decide to shoot him?

 

[Zorqal]

Kennedy quite possibly won because he was charming and charismatic, and LBJ doesn't come close to equaling Kennedy there. So yes, Nixon wins.

I wonder this, though - how does Nixon handle the Cuban Missile Crisis, and does Lee Oswald decide to shoot him?

I agree. I mean, Nixon was the "better" candidate, but Kennedy was so much more personable. While LBJ was good, he was Senate good, not Administration good. I imagine Nixon rides Eisenhower's success right into the White House.

I have to imagine that Nixon would be more successful, simply because he has experience in an Administration and I imagine that his would look similar to Eisenhower's meaning the support net was already there, rather than with Kennedy where it was still being formed. As for Oswald, that's a wild card. I'm sure that he could rationalize shooting just about anyone, but does he ever get a chance at Nixon?

 

[Morraw]

Why? He had far less support than Kennedy. Without him I'm guessing a lot of Kennedy's support could have gone to Meyner possibly, but not enough to take the nomination from LBJ, who was in second. Maybe we see a Johnson/Meyner ticket, which then loses to Nixon in '60. Whoever gets nominated I feel like their chances against Nixon aren't great.

Probably; LBJ was an old school Democrat in the New Deal mold, though that's probably not going to be enough to have him cross the line in 1960 barring unforeseen circumstances. He'd undoubtedly do better in the South (as well as the West) seeing as he was the Senate Leader that stalled the passage of the CRA (no matter how much he'd have wanted to support it), but it may also hurt him with African-Americans (and the North) if the Democrats don't put a decent Civil Rights plank into their platform that year. And without Kennedy, Nixon probably won't choose Lodge, instead moving to another North-Eastern politician like Rockefeller. Overall, Nixon's probably going to top LBJ; perhaps by a greater margin than what JFK won over him.

If somehow the DNC gets deadlocked or LBJ doesn't run for one-reason-or-another, Symington is probably a decent compromise/replacement; he did after-all receive Truman's endorsement, though he's going to have a hard time holding down the South if he doesn't campaign in segregated spaces.

Hilariously (if we're going to go down an implausible route), it would be interesting to see Stevenson get a third shot at bat; made even more hysterical if he were to unexpectedly win.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

I wonder if any of this prevents or delays the South moving to the Republican party.

 

[Zorqal]

I wonder if any of this prevents or delays the South moving to the Republican party.

That all depends on who takes his place I think. Most non-Southerners were pro-integration at this point I think, but some would clearly push it more than others. LBJ elected to his own Presidency may take a very different stance than OTL LBJ for instance, while some will obviously push the south away (Symington, Meyner).

 

[1940LaSalle]

Probably; LBJ was an old school Democrat in the New Deal mold, though that's probably not going to be enough to have him cross the line in 1960 barring unforeseen circumstances. He'd undoubtedly do better in the South (as well as the West) seeing as he was the Senate Leader that stalled the passage of the CRA (no matter how much he'd have wanted to support it), but it may also hurt him with African-Americans (and the North) if the Democrats don't put a decent Civil Rights plank into their platform that year. And without Kennedy, Nixon probably won't choose Lodge, instead moving to another North-Eastern politician like Rockefeller. Overall, Nixon's probably going to top LBJ; perhaps by a greater margin than what JFK won over him.

If somehow the DNC gets deadlocked or LBJ doesn't run for one-reason-or-another, Symington is probably a decent compromise/replacement; he did after-all receive Truman's endorsement, though he's going to have a hard time holding down the South if he doesn't campaign in segregated spaces.

Hilariously (if we're going to go down an implausible route), it would be interesting to see Stevenson get a third shot at bat; made even more hysterical if he were to unexpectedly win.

IIRC, Stevenson did get some serious consideration early on in 1960 but the spectre of a three election losing streak squelched that before it got very far.