WI: Joseph Ferdinand survives; different final partition?

[Janprimus]

Even when Joseph Ferdinand of Wittelsbach, price of Asturias, was the heir to the throne of Spain, other nations made treaties to partition the Spanish empire.

In the original first partition treaty between England and France, the French dauphin got Naples, Sicily, the right to inherit the Grand Duchy of Tuscany, and Lorraine & Bar; the duke of Lorraine & Bar was to compensated with the duchy of Milan; Austria was to receive the Spanish Netherlands; and finally all other parts remained a part of the Spanish empire.

So what if Joseph Ferdinand survives to become José I of Spain of Ferdinand VI of Spain. Since a few other nation wouldn't accept this partition treaty. Spain wanted to keep their empire intact and Austria, who feels cheated by France and England, since they feel that only the Spanish Netherlands is a ''too small piece of the pie'' for them. Anyway even with a surviving Joseph Ferdinand, a conflict remains very possible.

IMO this would result in a crisis, which could develop in a conflict; and to end it there are a few scenarios.
IMHO There are some possible scenarios. Scenario I: Spain manages to keep everything, however that isn't likely.
Or scenario II: A slightly different final partition arrangement. For instance I suggest the following: the French Dauphin receives the kingdoms of Naples, Sicily and Sardinia (probably for his second son), Austria manages to get the Spanish Netherlands and Milan and Spain and all the other remaining parts of the Spanish Empire go to Joseph Ferdinand.
Finally the third option were the original first partition treaty is the final outcome, however this isn't going to be as easy as France and England might have thought it would be.

 

[Janprimus]

Did I miss any old TL about this? Anyway I'm not so sure that a survival of Joseph Ferdinand and the first partition treaty would have prevented a crisis and/or conflict.

 

[Vitruvius]

I agree that the 1st Partition Treaty is likely to be set aside when the powers are actually confronted with the death of Charles II - even in a scenario where Joseph Ferdinand lives long enough to inherit Spain. However the terms of the First Partition Treaty / Treaty of The Hague are rather different than what Wikipedia would have you believe. Under the terms of the Treaty the Dauphin would receive Naples, Sicily, Guipuzcoa/Basque Country and the Presidi (the forts and port cities along the Tuscan coast long held by Spain but not actually Tuscany itself). Archduke Charles would get Milan and Joseph Ferdinand would get the rest. The exchange of Lorraine for Milan didn't come up until the 2nd Partition Treaty after Joseph Ferdinand died and Archduke Charles was given his share (Spain+S. Netherlands).

The Treaty was negotiated without the participation of the Emperor Leopold or any other Habsburg Spanish or Austrian and was essential and Anglo-French Treaty. The appeal for the French was securing some part of the Spanish Empire while also breaking the Anglo-Imperial alliance formed by the League of Augsburg. Since an heir had not been named in Spain it was seen as a safe bet. If a Bourbon was named heir they might loose out but if a Bavarian or Austrian was named heir they stood to gain. The British in turn kept Spain and importantly the Spanish Netherlands and Americas out of French hands.

The Treaty was a dead letter as soon as Charles II named Joseph Ferdinand his Universal heir. The British were inclined to support his claim as naturally were the Spanish leaving the French and Austrians with nothing. Its unlikely those two implacable foes would ever cooperate. So there is the crux of it, the Spanish above all wanted their Empire to pass to a single heir ie no partitions of any kind regardless of who the heir was. The British refused to see the S. Netherlands and Americas pass to France or a Bourbon. The French and Austrians were just out for as much as they could get. Thus the French supported the Partition Treaty at the same time they bribed Spanish nobles to have a Bourbon named Universal heir. Like wise the Austrians refused to consent to a Partition Treaty because they hoped to be name universal heir (perhaps they were less duplicitous in this regard).

SO... there are a few possibilities:

An Anglo-Spanish alliance that sees Joseph Ferdinand retain the whole Spanish Empire because Austria and France waste time fighting each other in Italy and can't concentrate on Spain.

An Anglo-Spanish-Austrian Alliance: Seeing the need to gain support on the continent Britian bullies Spain/Jose Ferdinand into giving up Italy to Austria. Archduke Charles gains Naples, Sicily and Milan. Sardinia, S Netherlands stay with Spain. France sulks.

 

[Janprimus]

I should have gotten suspicious about that wiki article, since there differences between the various language versions. But then again it is wiki.