WI: John McCain as a Democrat
- Thread starter Amadeus
- Start date
Arizona is a pretty strongly Republican state. Unless that's changed I don't see him reaching the same level of power he achieved IOTL. He might be able to be a long standing member of the house, maybe even governor, but probably not senator, at least not for very long. He almost certainly never runs for President, and if he does he won't got anywhere.
McCain had originally wanted to run for office in Florida back in 1976, but concluded that he wouldn't win. It wasn't until McCain married his second wife that he settled down in Arizona and ran for office soon after. McCain becoming a Democrat could very well affect which state he runs in to begin with.
Even if McCain runs as a Democrat in AZ, I could see him achieving success given that the state had 5 Democratic Governors from 1975 to 2009. The 1986 Gubernatorial election was pretty close. If McCain runs for Governor that year he could win and run for President in 1992, or potentially become the nominee's running mate.
Interesting idea, and not that hard to do.
McCain came very close to leaving the Republican Party in the Spring of 2001. That could be a start, but he considered going Independent, not Democrat.
Another suggestion: McCain runs for the House seat in Florida in 1976 and becomes a moderate Democrat there. Perhaps he becomes the running mate of Clinton in 1992 and then becomes President in 2000.
McCain came very close to leaving the Republican Party in the Spring of 2001. That could be a start, but he considered going Independent, not Democrat.
Another suggestion: McCain runs for the House seat in Florida in 1976 and becomes a moderate Democrat there. Perhaps he becomes the running mate of Clinton in 1992 and then becomes President in 2000.
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Ironically he would beat Bush, if butterflies don't mean that Dubya isn't the nominee.
No pro-life/anti-abortion (which McCain was) Democrat has a chance of winning the nomination for President post-McGovern. Even Jimmy Carter's views on abortion would be looked on as too moderate by 2000. He would be a Congressman or Senator forever.
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What could he win on a state level that'd position him to run for governor though? Just the state house, or do you think he'd go for congress? Even if he was governor I don't see any sort of Presidential path for him. Barring '96, Arizona has always voted for the GOP on a presidental level since '52. Assuming he maintains a lot of his interventionist opinions despite the party flip, he won't be popular with the anti intervention wing of the Democratic party, which means I think he'd be seen as more of a liability than an asset on a national campaign. However, if he stays just within the state, State House -> Governorship, he might never develop a voting record on foreign policy issues for anti interventionists to be unhappy about.
I agree, I think that McCain's Pro-Life stance would probably have prevented considering running for the presidency in the first place, even in an era where the Democrats and Republicans were a little more big tent on the abortion question.
Why assume he wouldn't just flip? He wasn't particularly religious, he was making pro-choice noises around his 2000 presidential bid and in the following years (when he flirted with leaving the party). Seems pretty clear his pro-life stance was basically him toeing GOP orthodoxy, not some deep-seated belief.
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BTW, I've written a couple times about what if McCain switched parties in 2001 as he reportedly came close to doing. Though I got a lot of pushback, I argued that in the context of the first Bush term, he'd have gotten quite a bit of Democratic support and might well have been the '04 Democratic nominee. But also that his term would be done in by infighting, conflict between his new party and his old one, and the financial crisis, and that if anything he'd catalyze a left-wing intra-Democratic backlash sooner than OTL.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...witched-parties-in-2001.452092/#post-17612177
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...witched-parties-in-2001.452092/#post-17612177
That seems a peculiarly ungenerous reading of his stance.
McCain frequently spoke about abortion and while he arguably did grow more conservative in later years even his 'wobble' circa 2000 was saying that he wanted to persuade the public to reject abortion rather than launch an immediate attack on Roe vs. Wade. Even his most Pro-Choice statements... well, weren't.
Perhaps, but had he begun his career as a Democrat he may well have adopted a pro-choice stance. Many, many politicians don't have strong feelings on abortion and clearly adopt a stance in line with their party. (Which can still be partially sincere; people with mixed feelings on a subject often change their mind in response to philosophical and political arguments they're exposed to within their party.)
Quite, but you are still saying that this McCain would have flipped on issue on which he was most consistently and strongly opposed. Why do you assume on this issue he was essentially just going with the flow?
I don't see any evidence to suggest that McCain's Pro-Life stance was anything other than his own strongly felt view.
Al Gore was a pro-life, pro-gun, anti gay rights Senator who flipped on all those issues by the time he ran for President in 2000. There's no reason to think McCain would never do the same, especially when you consider that in OTL 2000 he took a position contrary to his beliefs for the sake of political advantage (I'm referring to his support of the Confederate flag during the South Carolina primary, despite his private opposition. Ironically McCain lost the primary anyway).
I think the bigger question here is: why does he enter politics as a Democrat?
McCain came from a Republican family, was an admirer and acquaintance of Governor Reagan, and whose entry into politics was probably spurred on by wanting to support President Reagan. For him to be a Democrat instead is a pretty massive change in his character; he wasn't exactly a moderate-to-liberal Republican who just ended up in that party by happenstance. It's one thing to "evolve" on the issues, it's another thing entirely for him to hold entirely different positions from the get-go.
Maybe we start with butterflying Reagan away?
McCain came from a Republican family, was an admirer and acquaintance of Governor Reagan, and whose entry into politics was probably spurred on by wanting to support President Reagan. For him to be a Democrat instead is a pretty massive change in his character; he wasn't exactly a moderate-to-liberal Republican who just ended up in that party by happenstance. It's one thing to "evolve" on the issues, it's another thing entirely for him to hold entirely different positions from the get-go.
Maybe we start with butterflying Reagan away?
While that shift on abortion reflects very poorly on Gore's personal integrity - one can change one's mind I suppose but reading up on it he comes across as very much having tried to rewrite history - I'd like to think we'd hold other politicians to higher standards, and yes I do consider one's stance on abortion a much more significant one than on a flag.
McCain was a hardcore far-right nutter before he met Mo Udall. I’m not exactly sure anyone made any impression on him before that, given his behaviour.