I'm sure there have already been a few threads dealing with this. I just didn't bother to look for them because I knew that I would have to make a new one anyway, so...
A little context for those of you who aren't familiar with the topic at hand: between 1475 and 1479 the Kingdom of Castile saw a war succession war between the supporters of Isabella I, half-sister of the late king Henry IV, who was married to king Ferdinand II of Aragon, and the supporter of Joanna "la Beltraneja," who may or may not have been king Henry's daughter. At first, it seemed that Joanna's cause was lost, as she wasn't considered legitimate and most of the Castillan nobility was clearly on Isabella's side. However, hope came when king Afonso V of Portugal agreed to marry Joanna and interve in the war on her behalf. Afonso proclaimed himself King of Castille and Léon.
In the end, Isabella won, leading to the union of Castillan and Aragonese crowns and to the history we all know. But what if Joanna won and Castile joined with Portugal instead?
Assuming Afonso becomes king of Castile with full rights and privileges and is able to pass both crowns to any descendent of his, regarddless of weather or not he is also Joanna's descendent, that means that OTL king John II of Portugal will also be king of Castile ITTL.
This is a Castillan noble's worst nightmare! John II was a highly centralist and autocratic king, who severely curtailed the privileges of Portuguese nobility IOTL. It could be said that he came very close to being Europe's first absolute monarch.
This means that Castillan lands will, in this time line, be ruled from Lisbon with an iron fist. Normally, I'd say that would mean an immediate revolt of Castillan nobles against the Portuguese crown. However, the reason why this particular PoD may be interesting when compared to other "Iberian Union" (though not quite, in this case) PoDs is the fact that it implies a large scale restructuring of the Castillan nobility. Most of the really powerful houses supported Isabella, while Joanna's support mostly came from smaller noble families and Castillan nobility of Portuguese-descent, or otherwise families that had strong, recent ties to Portugal.
This has massive consequences! It means that ITTL Castillan nobility is not only comparitively smaller and weaker than it was IOTL, but also largely aligned with Portuguese interests and dependent on Portugal for its continuing prosperity. Furthermore, as Isabella is still around (as Queen consort of Aragon) and may use any chance she has to grab the crown and bring back the old aristocracy, the Castillan nobles have very strong reasons to stay on the side of John II no matter what he does.
This leaves with an extremely centralized, trade-oriented, Portuguese-dominated Kingdom of Portugal, Léon and Castile, which, surprisingly, seems to be stable enough in the short term!
What does this mean for the future of the Iberian Peninsula and the world?
A little context for those of you who aren't familiar with the topic at hand: between 1475 and 1479 the Kingdom of Castile saw a war succession war between the supporters of Isabella I, half-sister of the late king Henry IV, who was married to king Ferdinand II of Aragon, and the supporter of Joanna "la Beltraneja," who may or may not have been king Henry's daughter. At first, it seemed that Joanna's cause was lost, as she wasn't considered legitimate and most of the Castillan nobility was clearly on Isabella's side. However, hope came when king Afonso V of Portugal agreed to marry Joanna and interve in the war on her behalf. Afonso proclaimed himself King of Castille and Léon.
In the end, Isabella won, leading to the union of Castillan and Aragonese crowns and to the history we all know. But what if Joanna won and Castile joined with Portugal instead?
Assuming Afonso becomes king of Castile with full rights and privileges and is able to pass both crowns to any descendent of his, regarddless of weather or not he is also Joanna's descendent, that means that OTL king John II of Portugal will also be king of Castile ITTL.
This is a Castillan noble's worst nightmare! John II was a highly centralist and autocratic king, who severely curtailed the privileges of Portuguese nobility IOTL. It could be said that he came very close to being Europe's first absolute monarch.
This means that Castillan lands will, in this time line, be ruled from Lisbon with an iron fist. Normally, I'd say that would mean an immediate revolt of Castillan nobles against the Portuguese crown. However, the reason why this particular PoD may be interesting when compared to other "Iberian Union" (though not quite, in this case) PoDs is the fact that it implies a large scale restructuring of the Castillan nobility. Most of the really powerful houses supported Isabella, while Joanna's support mostly came from smaller noble families and Castillan nobility of Portuguese-descent, or otherwise families that had strong, recent ties to Portugal.
This has massive consequences! It means that ITTL Castillan nobility is not only comparitively smaller and weaker than it was IOTL, but also largely aligned with Portuguese interests and dependent on Portugal for its continuing prosperity. Furthermore, as Isabella is still around (as Queen consort of Aragon) and may use any chance she has to grab the crown and bring back the old aristocracy, the Castillan nobles have very strong reasons to stay on the side of John II no matter what he does.
This leaves with an extremely centralized, trade-oriented, Portuguese-dominated Kingdom of Portugal, Léon and Castile, which, surprisingly, seems to be stable enough in the short term!
What does this mean for the future of the Iberian Peninsula and the world?
