SinghKing
Banned
Both were nations with an ancient history which successfully repulsed European military advances to dominate them, Ethiopia at the Battle of Adwa, and Japan at the Battle of Tsushima, and as a result both nations considered each other to be potential allies prior to World War II.
Both countries signed a Treaty of Friendship and Commerce in 1930. The next year, Ethiopia reached out to her potential Asian ally when Ethiopian Foreign Minister Heruy Welde Sellase visited Japan in 1931, dramatizing the possible economic and military benefits of cooperation between the two countries. He was received very warmly both by government officials and by the people of Japan. In particular, Japanese ultra-nationalists, wishing to lead an alliance of the "colored peoples" of the world, believed that Ethiopia would play a crucial role in that alliance.
Heruy subsequently wrote of his visit to Japan in his book, Mahidere Birhan: Hagre Japan ("The Document of Japan"), wherein he set forth his belief that Ethiopia and Japan shared a number of similarities, and needed to be more aware of each other; that being said, he recognized that Japan was the more prosperous of the two and had been more successful in its modernisation. The success of this visit outside of Ethiopia is attested by contemporary rumors that the Crown Prince of Ethiopia (Amha Selassie) would marry a princess of the Japanese Imperial family.
In 1934, two Japanese gunboats visited Djibouti, the primary maritime door to Ethiopia, and that same year the Japanese government sent Tsuchida Yutaka on an inspection tour of Ethiopia. Although eager to protect Ethiopia's independence from the predations of the United Kingdom, France, and Italy, and optimistic about commercial opportunities, Tsuchida felt that Japan, far from Ethiopia, could not have an effect on imperialist ambitions there.
However, on the eve of the Second Italo-Ethiopian War, when Ethiopia most needed Japanese help, the Japanese government decided to back Italy instead- starting out on the diplomatic path which would later lead to Japan entering the Anti-Comintern Pact, the Tripartite Pact, and eventually becoming a member of the Axis Powers. The Japanese ambassador to Italy, Dr. Sugimura Yotaro, on 16 July 1935, assured Mussolini that his country held no political interests in Ethiopia, and would remain neutral in Italy's coming war of aggression.
His comments stirred up a furore inside Japan, where there had been popular affinity for the African Empire. Despite Japanese popular opinion being overwhelmingly in favour of intervening of Ethiopia's behalf, when Ethiopia approached Japan for help on 2 August, they were refused completely: even a modest request for the Japanese government to officially state its support for Ethiopia in the coming conflict was denied.
Prior to this, and for some time afterwards, Japan's attitude towards Italy's proposal was generally dismissive, anticipating that an Italo-Japanese alliance would merely antagonize Britain after the British had condemned Italy's invasion of Ethiopia. This attitude by Japan towards Italy altered in 1937, when they faced international isolation after the League of Nations condemned them for their aggression in China, while Italy still remained favourable to Japan. It was only then, as a result of Italy's support for Japan against international condemnation, that Japan started to adopt a more positive attitude towards Italy, and offered proposals for a non-aggression or neutrality pact with Italy.
As such, here's a potential ATL which may be worth considering; WI the Empires of Japan and Ethiopia had actually managed to cement their ties, and had established a military alliance prior to or during the Second Italo-Ethiopian War? The potential POD's I'm looking at, which may have been able to bring about this outcome, would be, A) the proposed marriage of the Crown Prince of Ethiopia, Amha Selassie to a princess of the Japanese Imperial family actually going ahead ITTL (instead of his marriage to Princess Wolete Israel Seyoum), and/or B) Tsuchida Yutaka having greater faith in Japan's ability to project force further afield, advising the Japanese government that they could and should stand against imperial ambitions on Ethiopia. If either or both of these POD's had happened, and the Empires of Japan and Ethiopia had entered into a formal military alliance (either prior to the outbreak of the 2nd Italo-Ethiopian War, or immediately afterwards, accepting the Ethiopians' plea when they approach the Japanese for help), what kind of butterflies might result from this ITTL?
With the Japanese intervening on the Ethiopians' behalf, might the Japanese-Ethiopian alliance be capable of defeating the Italians? And what sort of an impact would it have on the League of Nations (who called upon its members to condemn Italy's aggression and intervene on Ethiopia's behalf IOTL, without success- ITTL, Japan would surely be championed as an exemplary nation within the LoN for accepting the call when no-one else would, and their success could be used to tout the success of the LoN itself), the military alliances being forged elsewhere, and the course of WW2 (if it even happens ITTL)?
Both countries signed a Treaty of Friendship and Commerce in 1930. The next year, Ethiopia reached out to her potential Asian ally when Ethiopian Foreign Minister Heruy Welde Sellase visited Japan in 1931, dramatizing the possible economic and military benefits of cooperation between the two countries. He was received very warmly both by government officials and by the people of Japan. In particular, Japanese ultra-nationalists, wishing to lead an alliance of the "colored peoples" of the world, believed that Ethiopia would play a crucial role in that alliance.
Heruy subsequently wrote of his visit to Japan in his book, Mahidere Birhan: Hagre Japan ("The Document of Japan"), wherein he set forth his belief that Ethiopia and Japan shared a number of similarities, and needed to be more aware of each other; that being said, he recognized that Japan was the more prosperous of the two and had been more successful in its modernisation. The success of this visit outside of Ethiopia is attested by contemporary rumors that the Crown Prince of Ethiopia (Amha Selassie) would marry a princess of the Japanese Imperial family.
In 1934, two Japanese gunboats visited Djibouti, the primary maritime door to Ethiopia, and that same year the Japanese government sent Tsuchida Yutaka on an inspection tour of Ethiopia. Although eager to protect Ethiopia's independence from the predations of the United Kingdom, France, and Italy, and optimistic about commercial opportunities, Tsuchida felt that Japan, far from Ethiopia, could not have an effect on imperialist ambitions there.
However, on the eve of the Second Italo-Ethiopian War, when Ethiopia most needed Japanese help, the Japanese government decided to back Italy instead- starting out on the diplomatic path which would later lead to Japan entering the Anti-Comintern Pact, the Tripartite Pact, and eventually becoming a member of the Axis Powers. The Japanese ambassador to Italy, Dr. Sugimura Yotaro, on 16 July 1935, assured Mussolini that his country held no political interests in Ethiopia, and would remain neutral in Italy's coming war of aggression.
His comments stirred up a furore inside Japan, where there had been popular affinity for the African Empire. Despite Japanese popular opinion being overwhelmingly in favour of intervening of Ethiopia's behalf, when Ethiopia approached Japan for help on 2 August, they were refused completely: even a modest request for the Japanese government to officially state its support for Ethiopia in the coming conflict was denied.
Prior to this, and for some time afterwards, Japan's attitude towards Italy's proposal was generally dismissive, anticipating that an Italo-Japanese alliance would merely antagonize Britain after the British had condemned Italy's invasion of Ethiopia. This attitude by Japan towards Italy altered in 1937, when they faced international isolation after the League of Nations condemned them for their aggression in China, while Italy still remained favourable to Japan. It was only then, as a result of Italy's support for Japan against international condemnation, that Japan started to adopt a more positive attitude towards Italy, and offered proposals for a non-aggression or neutrality pact with Italy.
As such, here's a potential ATL which may be worth considering; WI the Empires of Japan and Ethiopia had actually managed to cement their ties, and had established a military alliance prior to or during the Second Italo-Ethiopian War? The potential POD's I'm looking at, which may have been able to bring about this outcome, would be, A) the proposed marriage of the Crown Prince of Ethiopia, Amha Selassie to a princess of the Japanese Imperial family actually going ahead ITTL (instead of his marriage to Princess Wolete Israel Seyoum), and/or B) Tsuchida Yutaka having greater faith in Japan's ability to project force further afield, advising the Japanese government that they could and should stand against imperial ambitions on Ethiopia. If either or both of these POD's had happened, and the Empires of Japan and Ethiopia had entered into a formal military alliance (either prior to the outbreak of the 2nd Italo-Ethiopian War, or immediately afterwards, accepting the Ethiopians' plea when they approach the Japanese for help), what kind of butterflies might result from this ITTL?
With the Japanese intervening on the Ethiopians' behalf, might the Japanese-Ethiopian alliance be capable of defeating the Italians? And what sort of an impact would it have on the League of Nations (who called upon its members to condemn Italy's aggression and intervene on Ethiopia's behalf IOTL, without success- ITTL, Japan would surely be championed as an exemplary nation within the LoN for accepting the call when no-one else would, and their success could be used to tout the success of the LoN itself), the military alliances being forged elsewhere, and the course of WW2 (if it even happens ITTL)?
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