WI: Japanese discover oil in Manchuria

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Hendryk

Banned
... and one of coal deposits in China. But all are the same size.

Coal in China.jpg
 
Rasputin

Rasputin

An extremely interesting idea, with very wide-ranging implications. I wasn't aware such a huge potential find was right under the Japanese noses all this time. It would be coming online around the time the embargo hit, so a simple tit-for-tat exchange would ameliorate any dependency on new sources. And it's an excellent POD since all it requires is a particularly eagle-eyed Kwantung Army officer taking an extended afternoon stroll.

One thing though...an increased dependency on Manchuria might make the Japanese even more paranoid of the Russians, since they basically have the entire region clasped in a claw ready to snap at a moment's notice (which happened during August Storm). Would this encourage the Japanese to intervene in Russia during that crucial moment in late 1941? The causus belli for facing the United States is defunct, but the one for dealing with the menace to the north is still alive and well, and enhanced by the need to secure their newly-found supplies from attack. It'd be a good opportunity to get their own back after Khalkin Gol.

Which breeds another question...how well would the Japanese have fared in late 1941? Chances are they'd be utterly hammered (considering the Kwantung Army's track record against the Red Army), but would secure fuel supplies turn the tide?
 
Thande

Thande

Donor
Rasputin said:
One thing though...an increased dependency on Manchuria might make the Japanese even more paranoid of the Russians, since they basically have the entire region clasped in a claw ready to snap at a moment's notice (which happened during August Storm).
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Good point, will this perhaps have an effect on the Nonmohan incident?
 

Johnrankins

Rasputin said:
An extremely interesting idea, with very wide-ranging implications. I wasn't aware such a huge potential find was right under the Japanese noses all this time. It would be coming online around the time the embargo hit, so a simple tit-for-tat exchange would ameliorate any dependency on new sources. And it's an excellent POD since all it requires is a particularly eagle-eyed Kwantung Army officer taking an extended afternoon stroll.

One thing though...an increased dependency on Manchuria might make the Japanese even more paranoid of the Russians, since they basically have the entire region clasped in a claw ready to snap at a moment's notice (which happened during August Storm). Would this encourage the Japanese to intervene in Russia during that crucial moment in late 1941? The causus belli for facing the United States is defunct, but the one for dealing with the menace to the north is still alive and well, and enhanced by the need to secure their newly-found supplies from attack. It'd be a good opportunity to get their own back after Khalkin Gol.

Which breeds another question...how well would the Japanese have fared in late 1941? Chances are they'd be utterly hammered (considering the Kwantung Army's track record against the Red Army), but would secure fuel supplies turn the tide?
Click to expand...

Good question, my guess it partly depends on how big an army Stalin is willing to send to the Far East or let remain there. The Japanese army would probably have some more tanks then in OTL since they have more oil. Germany is the main opponent for Russia. If Moscow falls Stalin goes with it but he can lose a large slice of Siberia before it becomes a real threat. It is a long way from Moscow to the Pacific Ocean!
 

Sovereign12

Concentrating on their continental holdings, the IJA may regain favor, if they even loose it in TTL. Under this scenario any steel produced from scrap or raw ore would go to tanks, artillery, vehicles, and firearms instead of naval production. Shipping from the mainland would be cheaper than bringing the oil from the DEIs. A naval presence would still be needed to protect oil shipments though.

Something I was wondering about. If Japan has this oil and Iron ore, couldn't they trade it with the Germans for processed steel. Shipping this to Germany may be difficult, but if Japan is neutral, would Britain or France attack Japanese transports. If they did, it would definitely push Japan into full partnership with Germany.
 
MrP

MrP

Banned
Sovereign12 said:
Concentrating on their continental holdings, the IJA may regain favor, if they even loose it in TTL. Under this scenario any steel produced from scrap or raw ore would go to tanks, artillery, vehicles, and firearms instead of naval production. Shipping from the mainland would be cheaper than bringing the oil from the DEIs. A naval presence would still be needed to protect oil shipments though.

Something I was wondering about. If Japan has this oil and Iron ore, couldn't they trade it with the Germans for processed steel. Shipping this to Germany may be difficult, but if Japan is neutral, would Britain or France attack Japanese transports. If they did, it would definitely push Japan into full partnership with Germany.
Click to expand...

They'd enforce the same embargo as in WWI. And the Japanese don't have enough merchant ships to take care of their domestic needs, let alone send some to Europe.

The tank idea is interesting . . .
 

Borys

Banned
Ahoj!
Not sure if this mentioned (idf yes, sorry) ...
If oil is discovered (early enough) in Manchukuo, and is brought into production, then any AH pacific war scenarios may skip an invasion of NOI. There is no need for it.
Also, in light of the shorter distance, I'd assume that 5 tankers bringing oil from NOI to Japan are worth 10, maybe even 15 if working the Manchukuo-Japan route.

Borys
 
Rasputin

Rasputin

Does anyone know of any resources we can use to discover the balance of forces in Outer and Inner Manchuria in late 1941? Bearing in mind that the divisions marked for seizing Pacific possessions would be redirected to the Kwantung army and overall probably better supplied than OTL. It might give us a rough idea of what to expect in a confrontation. Only problem would be that the Japanese are still clinging to a relatively outmoded tactical doctrine, so it would need a comparatively large ratio in favour of themselves to cancel out its deficiencies. Another sticking point would be Britain, which is nominally a Russian ally in the war against Germany and could complicate things should they intervene in the Pacific.

A lot of variables here. Maybe it would be better to just work from Japan exploiting the oil in Manchuria and seeing what effects that has before moving on to later? Best not get ahead of ourselves.

EDIT: Ah, here we go: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Far_East_Front

This gives us details of the four armies and the rifle corps on watch in the far east. You can tell why it turned the tide on the Eastern Front. It's huge. Absolutely colossal. I have a hard time seeing the Japanese making a dent on a force that size, even with extra forces available. Of course, if Stalin were to recall some of those armies to Moscow things might be different, but still, it'd be a magnificent slog.
 
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Darkest

Banned
I could have really used that information for my Jiangless World timeline. I was thinking of everything to help the Japanese Empire out! My idea was to just destabilize China by killing Jiang early and forcing them into civil wars and reckless pre-emptive attacks on Japanese Manchuria.

I would never had to go that in-depth, just give them the oil of Manchuria!
 

Johnrankins

Rasputin said:
Does anyone know of any resources we can use to discover the balance of forces in Outer and Inner Manchuria in late 1941? Bearing in mind that the divisions marked for seizing Pacific possessions would be redirected to the Kwantung army and overall probably better supplied than OTL. It might give us a rough idea of what to expect in a confrontation. Only problem would be that the Japanese are still clinging to a relatively outmoded tactical doctrine, so it would need a comparatively large ratio in favour of themselves to cancel out its deficiencies. Another sticking point would be Britain, which is nominally a Russian ally in the war against Germany and could complicate things should they intervene in the Pacific.

A lot of variables here. Maybe it would be better to just work from Japan exploiting the oil in Manchuria and seeing what effects that has before moving on to later? Best not get ahead of ourselves.

EDIT: Ah, here we go: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Far_East_Front

This gives us details of the four armies and the rifle corps on watch in the far east. You can tell why it turned the tide on the Eastern Front. It's huge. Absolutely colossal. I have a hard time seeing the Japanese making a dent on a force that size, even with extra forces available. Of course, if Stalin were to recall some of those armies to Moscow things might be different, but still, it'd be a magnificent slog.
Click to expand...

I doubt Stalin left all those troops in the Far East even before Sorge's report. Hell, I'm suprised he waited for it, I would have left a skeleton force behind and shipped the rest west. The worst that could happen is that Japan takes part of Siberia while the worst that could happen in the West is the loss of the USSR.
 

Hendryk

Banned
Rasputin said:
One thing though...an increased dependency on Manchuria might make the Japanese even more paranoid of the Russians, since they basically have the entire region clasped in a claw ready to snap at a moment's notice (which happened during August Storm). Would this encourage the Japanese to intervene in Russia during that crucial moment in late 1941? The causus belli for facing the United States is defunct, but the one for dealing with the menace to the north is still alive and well, and enhanced by the need to secure their newly-found supplies from attack. It'd be a good opportunity to get their own back after Khalkin Gol.

Which breeds another question...how well would the Japanese have fared in late 1941? Chances are they'd be utterly hammered (considering the Kwantung Army's track record against the Red Army), but would secure fuel supplies turn the tide?
Click to expand...
Good point. I'm willing to be proved wrong by any expert on WW2 Japan but I think that finding the Daqing oil field changes Japan's strategic outlook. Instead of expanding into south-east Asia to get hold of the Dutch East Indies, its priority is now to secure this newfound source of oil, which in turns requires a sharper focus on north-east Asia, and specifically the USSR. As others have pointed out the Kwantung Army fared disastrously against the Red Army in OTL, but then it was a sideshow from the Japanese perspective; in TTL it becomes a primary front, and reinforced accordingly. Even if the battle of Lake Khasan goes on much as in OTL, it's possible that the battle of Khalkhyn Gol in 1939 would be postponed or butterflied away altogether (this may have consequences for Zhukov's future assignments, and in turn for the situation on the German-Russian front). I suppose the smartest move would be for the Japanese to wait until the beginning of Operation Barbarossa, but then, of course, the Japanese in OTL didn't always make the smartest move.
 

Sovereign12

I don't think a confrontation between Russia and Japan is inevitable. With Japan finding these oil fields, so relatively close to home, her ties to Germany become less important for them. This means Germany only has Italy as an ally. Troops will be important to guard against Russian encroachment, but when Germany attacks Russia, the Japanese troops would be more important in taking more of China as Russia has other problems.

Without Japan swallowing up Pacific islands and SE Asia territory, the British Military can concentrate on Europe and Africa more. With ties loosened from Germany, Japan may not demand Indo-china when France falls, the Germans now have no reason to give it to them anyway. I could see the French placing Indo-China into British hands, similar to the US taking Iceland and Greenland during OTL WW2. (Britain fighting this world's Veitnam War?)

The British also have no interest in attacking Japan in defense of China either. Same would go for the US. Unless Japan attacks Britian or the US, there will be no Pacific portion of the war.

This could mean the war is shorter in Europe with Britain, and Russia when they are attacked by the Germans, concentrating most of their strength in Europe.
 

PMN1

Interesting post, i've put a link to this on some other sites.

As I said to Borys, i'm having a quiet afternoon.​
 

adam888

I'm wondering about the ability of the Japanese in 1941 in developing the newly discovered Oil Fields in Manchuria. Would they need to ask for help from neutral parties or the Germans?
 

Borys

Banned
Ahoj!
The blokes on other boards did not discover anything exceptional about the Manchurian fields. Japan had a busy, if small, oil business since around 1890. Still around, BTW.
Unless somebody unearths info making the Manchurian field deep or with some other quality precluding exploitation with 1930s technology, then no need for outside help.
However, a discovery date of 1934/35 would be useful. The next 5 years would be used for further, mapping, setting up production, maybe laying a pipeline to a Yellow Sea port, etc.
Well on the Japanese islands are short lived, so the Japanese would have to see that the Manchurian ones are productive in the long term.

Borys
 

adam888

This is a discussion that I had on another board for I have always wondered what if Japan had realized attacking a country with much more vast
industrial capacity like the USA would be suicidal and felt insuring a German victory over the Russians was in their best business interest.

The consensus on the other board basically felt their very real need for Oil in 1941 precluded any other course of action. Presumably this scenario and perhaps developing the smaller Sakhalin Oil Fields change matters but it was also felt on the other board that Japan lacked the engineering know how to develop such an Oil Field.

I do wonder if FDR would have allowed US Oil companies to help the Japanese develop these new Oil Fields if it was felt it would reduce most of the tensions in the Far East.
 
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