WI: Japan knocks out China 1938-1941

Heres some info i found for Japanese ground forces.

Japanese strengths were in firepower and mobility. They did not do well with combinded arms tactics and had an outdated force structure....

In China yes, but in the Pacific theater? No , they didn't have the logistics nor naval support (so essentially against the Allied powers) to employ artillery much.

Japanese "had, on a whole, greater tactical and strategic mobility" than most of their advasaries. They were masters at infiltration, the use of light infantry and ambushes. They were able to stand up to the most mobile units the British had avalible the Chindits under the command of Orde Wingate. They were able to inflict heavy casulties on these elite British units in 1942-43. The Japanese in one incident were able to annhilate two whole companies of these units after springing an ambush and letting lose acurrate mortor and rifle fire.

The flip side being, once again logistics. They could never supply all their men properly so often Japanese forces were reduced in mobility due to a lack of supplies and motorized/sea transportation. One interesting point is that they utilized bikes to a great degree; cheap, all terrain, and oh so effective with all the roads the British built.

Another mention was the morale of the Japanese soldiers: extremely resilient and it gave them an edge in a close fight. But at the end of the day being motivated won't make rice out of thin air nor would it stop bombers.

There was also the Japanese difference in securing positions; whereas traditional European armies would consolidate a point after taking it the Japanese would often just detach a few units to station and sprint onward. This behavior gave the Allies a good scare at the beginning of the war, of course it was a simple matter to prepare defenses once a forward position falls and they quickly got used to it.
 
Heres some info i found for Japanese ground forces.

Japanese strengths were in firepower and mobility. They did not do well with combinded arms tactics and had an outdated force structure.

Japanese relied heavily on artillery. In Manchuria they had 5360 artillerty pieces, in China over ten thousand. They "almost always had artillery superiority on the battlefield and were well trained in fire support coordination. The Artillery calibers tended to be light,77mm or 90mm guns were common, but battalions of 150mm howitzers were also avalible to reinforce attacking divisions. Japanese infantry battalions also had organic platoons of infantry guns or light mortors for direct fire support. Firepower was mobile and 'up front' where it was needed."

Japanese "had, on a whole, greater tactical and strategic mobility" than most of their advasaries. They were masters at infiltration, the use of light infantry and ambushes. They were able to stand up to the most mobile units the British had avalible the Chindits under the command of Orde Wingate. They were able to inflict heavy casulties on these elite British units in 1942-43. The Japanese in one incident were able to annhilate two whole companies of these units after springing an ambush and letting lose acurrate mortor and rifle fire.

The Japanese overall force structure and orgainzing was disappointing. Their reserve system was based on the Prussian 1870's pattern and their overall organization of their divisons was based on the outdated 'Square' pattern of WW1. It was only late in the war that they modified their force structure to a 'Triangle' pattern.


Brian Train is fairly inaccurate in his appraisal.


The Chinese simply didn't have much artillery at all.....hence the Japanese always had artillery supremacy. It's the same fact with Armoured Cars and Tanks in China. The Japanese Army in China had such equipment, but the Chinese didn't.

Where the Chinese did have 'modern gear' it was often in the early war phase deployed piece meal, then later Chiang was more loathe to deploy it because the Nationalist Army had lost quite a bit of what it had had, earlier in the war.

Hence the Chinese Nationalist forces never really deployed much equipment.



Indeed, Japanese equipment superiority over the Chinese was such that they only needed to fire off a few rounds at a dug in Chinese position to dislodge the Chinese, since the Chinese were never really able to fire back. This led to the Japanese spreading out their armoured vehicles and guns among the lower officers.

In essence, the Japanese come to the infantry support doctrine, more by the fact that the Chinese don't have any real counters, than from any military 'theory'.

Artillery was always considered a 'direct branch of the infantry' in Imperial Japan as so had its command and control structure was geared around that. The Japanese very very rarely co-ordinated battery fire, and so by all standards, the Japanese hardly used their 'suppiour fire-power' to it's 'fire power effect'. This would hurt them later in Burma and during the early pacific campaign in OTL when artillery was not employed 'en masse' against Allied Offensives. If it had been, then some of the very costly later island battles like Iwo Jima might have been brought forward when the Japanese realised that the most vulnerable point of an invasion was just as the first waves of infantry had landed on the shore.

But anyway I digress.


The Japanese never had 'a strength in fire-power', they only had a relative superiority vs the Chinese who had even less.



In terms of mobility, he/you are spot on. The Japanese Armed forces lacked motor transport, not only because of engineering, but simply because the fact was the roads were not up to Japanese Motor-engineering of the day.

However, because of that the army knew that their guns would be either manhauled, or hauled by horse/mule. Hence the guns were designed with that very aspect in mind. Indeed, one gun one of the 74mm ones could be broken down into pieces and carried by 12 men across almost any terrain a man could march over.

Part of this was because Japanese Artiller designers erred on the side of 'unsafety' in that rather than build very robust carriage, mounts and thick gun barrels, they tried to get away with the bare minimum (in part because of a lack of steel which the navy consumed massive amounts of).

Finally, because they were fighting the Manchurians and Chinese with very limited numbers of guns of their own, the Japanese Army in Manchuria and China never needed larger guns. In fact if one looks at the lists of equipment the vast majority of guns are only up to ~75mm, ~105mm and their 'heavy guns in number' are only 150mm.

What can be said further about some of the Japanese Guns of the era is that they were designed so that should roads be available they had the sprung suspension and robust carriage for towing. As OTL progressed, that wasn't all that important, but the Japanese had experimented during the pre-war period in truck towed artillery fairly extensively. But like aforementioned, where there wasn't roads, you can't tow guns.

In this sense the terrain dictated what kinds of guns the Japanese could use, hence the guns that ended up being produced were precisely the ones that were mobile. It's a more evolutionary selection process here again, rather than one of doctrine.



In terms of infantry tactics someone else has already ninja'd me, pardon the phrase. The Japanese were a 'light infantry force' in fact they lacked light support equipment everywhere, even though they viewed it as a 'direct arm of the infantry'. So far more emphasis was placed on manoeuvre, and overwhelming attack, than was on actually *ahem* fighting *ahem*.

Part of the trouble was that low level commanders would often 'freelance' their senior officers and actually conduct frontal attacks. This was an endemic problem, particularly during the Pacific campaign, not so much in China. But it effectively made the Japanese foot doctrine one of 'infiltration and shock attacks', the trouble being that 'Shock Attacks' would quite often 'go off' piece meal, or individual groups would spoil the who surprise/ambush exercise.

From the high commands point of view, what was often wanted was a war of manoeuvre simply to capitalise on their advantages.

In Manchuria this had worked, in China it didn't. Partly this was because the Chinese attempted to 'dig in' a lot, which required artillery to be brought up, and partially because the terrain was so poort that even the Japanese found movement and logistics difficult....espically when the countryside was itself hostile because of the Japanese attitude to the local Chinese.

Hence the Japanese found themselves with rather high attrition and a difficulty in actually making manoeuvre when lower commanders would disobey orders and choose some other target to advance on.

In some respects, the size of the Japanese forces was a hindrance here, and it goes without saying that the firebrand middle officers, and low level 'disobedience' all culminated in that while the Japanese Army in China was mobile, it also lacked good co-ordination and was too 'opportunistic'.

At that said, being 'opportunistic' wasn't all that bad, since local commanders worked with what they had to get results even if they had nowhere near the proper logistics, manpower or support to conduct their 'freelancing'. If I may make my own analysis here, the Imperial Japanese got so much of a 'wanked history' because for the very reason that the actions were not controlled from the top.

Likewise, from my perspective of things, we give the Imperial Japanese Army too much credit for their 'battle tactics' since it was more commanders on the ground acting as they saw fit...not as the army saw things fit.


The force structure was appropriate for the time, China really was a 'Great War Era' campaign for Imperial Japan, the Chinese had large numbers, and the Japanese couldn't rely so much on manoeuvre compared to some of the Pacific campaigns. Which is why they had to maintain larger divisional sizes/outlays.


Bringing those last four paragraphs together, this is precisely why we see such 'pinning' manoeuvres in China, that look just like the early phase of the western front in the Great War, because the army units are 'WWI styled' and the tactics match (mcdo).

We see the initiative of local commanders to conduct raids against the stronger better organised allies, allied cohesion being broken up be repeated attacks from multiple low level Japanese commanders trying to organise an overwhelming attack, but it breaking up due to lack of co-ordination, and why we see opportunistic behaviour to press attacks such as unconsentual alludes to.





I am very much of the opinion, that the Imperial Japanese were a Great War power, trying to fight a modern WWII era war...hence they suffered terribly. That doesn't mean they were idiots, it doesn't mean that individual commanders were 'stupid', if anything many Japanese Commanders did tremendously with the very little equipment and adverse conditions they found themselves in. It is because of that, the Japanese were always reactionary to the place they found themselves in, hence overall strategy and tactics were lost on an armed forces that had to be flexible because of its structure and composition. In these aspects we really should admire the Imperial Japanese Army for how far it was able to get (i.e. Japano-wank in real life) rather than condone them as unequip idiots.


Yet for all that we can admire them, we do have to remember the brutal regime and actions of the Japanese and recognise that while they had a lot of potential to do well, there is only so far you can 'wank them' into being great conquerors. Coming back to the beginning of this summery, it is only in recognising why the Japanese were reactionary, and how they came to the point of having such a brutal regime and outlook that really one can begin to understand how this all came to be.
 
Genmotty said:
A little historical context
Well-analyzed, but ultimately irrelevant to my point. You appear to be arguing a point I'm not raising.
Genmotty said:
This is where the IJN goes of 'half cocked' and begins their 'Advance South'
I suggest, as I have before, this amounts to where IJN finally realizes its time to act or risk losing any share of the military budget at all. Which is what I was saying all along: sooner or later, IJN will see it risks becoming irrelevant, & will do something radical.
Genmotty said:
the IJN simply isn't a dominant force in Imperial Japan
I never said, or so much as hinted, it was.:rolleyes: I am saying, if IJN leadership believes the Navy is under threat for its survival, it will act to prevent that.
Genmotty said:
the 'Advance South' would have never been able to get off the ground because the Japanese Army in China would have been successful, and there would have been no cause to change priorities.
I don't believe it. I simply don't see how IJN leadership can put the service's very existence at risk by ignoring IJA success.
Genmotty said:
Japan had such continuous series of opportunities to test men, equipment and ground crews under full operational conditions
Too bad the design staffs wouldn't listen to them.:rolleyes: The A5M, A6M, & (despite extensive experience against U.S. fighters) A7M were all designed to a spec emphasizing maneuverability over speed, climb, & protection.:rolleyes: They were under-armed, also. The theory of needing no armor was because the fliers would be attacking, & so didn't need protection.:rolleyes::confused: (I kid you not.)

They weren't helped by the aviation industry's simple lack of ability to produce better airframes & engines. Something like the R2800 was beyond Japan even in 1945; the R4360 wasn't even in their wildest dreams.

Which is why I said "Japan simply did not have the engineering capacity to match even the SU, let alone the U.S. or Britain." Japan's best a/c engine in 1940 was a 780hp radial. By 1945, it was just over 1000hp. In 1940, the best in the U.S. was 2000hp, & by 1945, it was over 3500. In 1940, Japan's best fighter was the A6M, which had an insufficiently strong airframe, because Japan couldn't produce better aluminum. In 1940, the best U.S. fighter was the P-40, which was slightly slower, heavier, better armed, & better protected. In 1945, Japan's best fighter was stlll the A6M. In 1945, the best U.S. fighter was (arguably) the F4U, which was heavier, better armed, better armored, faster, & fitted with an engine of such power Japan could not produce; it was also produced in such numbers there were more built in three months than Japan built in a year.

Tell me again how Japan's industry was comparable.

In short, by 1940, Japan was about at her full stretch, while the U.S. & Britain (&, to a lesser extent, SU) were still well short of their maximum.

The A6M in 1940 was roughly equal to Allied types introduced about 5yr before: it was effectively obsolescent, if not obsolete, when it entered service.
Genmotty said:
a lot of Japanese aircraft did get very good names for themselves like the 'Zero' fighters.
I'd say a lot of that was on the superior combat experience of the Japanese aviators. They nevertheless had problems with stunting & lack of discipline, but they faced opposition with no combat experience. As that changed, Japan's edge vanished--& Japan's crew training never, ever had the capacity to build up numbers the way the Allies' did; it couldn't even keep up with losses.:rolleyes:
hasdrubal barca said:
Japanese strengths were in firepower and mobility.
They placed far too much emphasis on attack, & were desperately lacking in recce given that doctrine. They showed stunning lack of flexibility, & continued to rely on tactics & methods that had already proven faulty.

IJA & IJN senior leadership, by & large, was about the worst I've ever heard of.:eek::eek: The average infantryman, OTOH, had more resilience than any other anywhere.:cool::cool: Adequately led, IJA infantry would have been formidable indeed.

As for use of arty, AIUI, it wasn't organized for use by senior commands, like it would by in the U.S. or British Army, but at was dispersed in "penny packets" under control of quite junior officers. (I don't recall just how low.:eek:)
 
A little historical context:
Well-analyzed, but ultimately irrelevant to my point. You appear to be arguing a point I'm not raising.

Your point, if I may paraphrase, is that you suggest the Imperial Japanese Navy Chiefs of Staff to have acted outside of their remit to 'reign in' the Army Generals. Simply because the IJA was 'successful'. Correct?



The historical context is incredibly important, because I have briefly explained how the Imperial Japanese Military came to dominate the Imperial Japanese Government at the time. The actions that led Imperial Japan to conflict always came from the Army, they were the ones that organised several 'changes of regime' and generally the only faction in defacto control over Japans foreign policy in this era.

It is only later, after the Kwantung Army in Manchuria has a major loss of face at Nomonhan, and the fact that they have stalled in Northern China, that the Imperial Japanese Navy gains ascendancy, and an 'Advance South' policy is adopted. This happens around late 1939 in our time line.




The premise of this thread is that China is overrun in the period 1938-1941, for this to be plausible we have to assume that the IJA is much better organised, and somewhat better equip than in our timeline, and I would also strongly suggest that the Manchurian theater has been completely 'de-emphaszed' to the point of the Japanese perhaps never having of occupied North Manchuria in the first place.

In this kind of situation, the Imperial Navy who were largely in support of the Tosei-ha 'conservatives' are not concerned that the Kwantung Army is going to drag Japan into fighting both the Chinese and Russians at the same time, because there is a detente between Japan and Russia effectively.

There is no Nomonhan battles for the Army to loose face in, and more importantly, if Imperial Japan has a hope of overrunning China, it has to do much much better than it did in the opening season of conflicts than it did in our time line, hence any fears of a 'lengthy' war in China largely evaporate.

We have a situation a lot more like Iraq was where the Coalition Forces went in, kicked a lot of butt, but years in were still fighting against groups of rebels everywhere, although we might assume in this context the rebels are far better organised, equip and similarly etc.. Apples are Apples and Oranges are Oranges, the differences still are myriad.

My point is that a Japanese 'overrunning' at best creates a situation where the Nationalist army is broken, and instead the Japanese are left fighting local resistance, and warlord(s) (groups) on a disunited front, rather than a united one. This can be considered 'success' in the context of the times and region.

Success in China (as pre-requisite), basically butterflies away all the reasons that allowed the 'Advance South' concept to form hence there never is a pacific war.


We have to remember that the IJN were generally not the 'firebrands' that the Army contained, they were far less nationalistic and 'warmongering' relative to their peers, and only acted unilaterally when things began to get dire. Before then they were very happy to sit through it all.

Indeed, we can look at the 1931 invasion of Manchuria and make similar parallels to the Navy 'not acting initially', but jumping on the band wagon later...



I'm afraid you do not provide good context to explain why the IJN would act any differently, it appears more like you are trying to apply a; 'post-war 'looking back' IOTL 1941 attitude', to a scenario that is completely different; 'pre-war, looking forward 1938/1939 scenario premise'.

Far from being irrelevant, the historical context of why Imperial Japan became what is was is paramount to who holds the power, and who is dictating the shots, pardon the pun. Imperial Japan was far from being 'monolithic in thought or action' and we have to look at why various groups acted as they did, and under what conditions or pressures they were, or though were going to be applicable to understand why they acted as they did.



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phx1138 if you take snippets of text out of context, then you are doing precisely what you accuse me of; "arguing a point I'm not raising."

Myself said:
Coming back to the underestimating by the western powers it is bullcrap that "Japan simply did not have the engineering capacity to match even the SU, let alone the U.S. or Britain." (at least in terms of aero-enginering in the early phase of OTL WWII)

Which in the context of the entire section is referred to as around 1933-1936....and in the context of allied comparisons, doesn't truly come into effect until 1941 IOTL, even though there were many allied aircraft being flown for the Chinese.

Furthermore, I make comparison on the Soviet Union and British aircraft, which you refer to above (in the quote), not to American engineering.


My point that is being side stepped here, is that the Imperial Japanese Air-force went into WWII with a 'top notch' air-force that was comparable with western air-forces at the time. As the war drags on...

Myself said:
...they were spread thin, took losses, and home industry began to be redirected at other priorities.

So while the Japanese Air-forces were completely outmatched by the allied aircraft towards the end of war period IOTL, in the period suggested by this threads premise, the Japanese Air-forces are considerably 'top notch' because of their previous experiences and development focuses.

Anyhow, I care little for specification comparisons of military equipment, it's an argument that goes nowhere. I Instead as 'backing up evidence' point to the 'successes' of the Japanese in OTL border skirmishes, over China and the pacific, and what real life veterans thought about Japanese aircraft in their capabilities as an indicator of how effective their aero-complex was. By most accounts a lot of Japanese aircraft did get very good names for themselves like the 'Zero' fighters.


Do you see what I mean, I'm not talking about Imperial Japan's Aero-industry circa 1944 and comparing it to the Americans for example, that's all a bit of a tangent and rather irrelevant to the period, and belligerents under discussion. Furthermore I never argue military stats if possible, better to hear the accounts of those that fought with the machines of war and hear their opinions.


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A side Point:
phx1138 said:
...if IJN leadership believes the Navy is under threat for its survival, it will act to prevent that.

Japan is/was an island nation, that branch of the armed forces, at the time, is no way under any threat for it's own survival. The Army needed the navy afterall to deliver supplies and protect merchant shipping. Manchuria produced a lot, but not everything. The notion that the Army would just 'strip out the navy' is fairly ASB, since the army relied on the navy fairly considerably.
 
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Genmotty said:
Your point, if I may paraphrase, is that you suggest the Imperial Japanese Navy Chiefs of Staff to have acted outside of their remit to 'reign in' the Army Generals. Simply because the IJA was 'successful'. Correct?
No. I never said, suggested, or implied the Navy had any intention or was making any effort to curb the Army in any fashion. Which makes this...
Genmotty said:
if you take snippets of text out of context, then you are doing precisely what you accuse me of; "arguing a point I'm not raising."
...singularly inappropriate.
Genmotty said:
[IJN] at the time, is no way under any threat for it's own survival. The Army needed the navy afterall to deliver supplies and protect merchant shipping. Manchuria produced a lot, but not everything. The notion that the Army would just 'strip out the navy' is fairly ASB, since the army relied on the navy fairly considerably.
Nonsense. This is exactly the situation that pertained OTL in 1941. Look what happened.:rolleyes:
 
Which is why I said "Japan simply did not have the engineering capacity to match even the SU, let alone the U.S. or Britain." Japan's best a/c engine in 1940 was a 780hp radial. By 1945, it was just over 1000hp. In 1940, the best in the U.S. was 2000hp, & by 1945, it was over 3500. In 1940, Japan's best fighter was the A6M, which had an insufficiently strong airframe, because Japan couldn't produce better aluminum. In 1940, the best U.S. fighter was the P-40, which was slightly slower, heavier, better armed, & better protected. In 1945, Japan's best fighter was stlll the A6M. In 1945, the best U.S. fighter was (arguably) the F4U, which was heavier, better armed, better armored, faster, & fitted with an engine of such power Japan could not produce; it was also produced in such numbers there were more built in three months than Japan built in a year.
I agree with most of what you wrote, but this paragraph is full of so many errors that I just couldn't let it be.

Japan's best a/c engine in 1940 was a 780hp radial.
Nope. The A6M2 model 11, which was already being produced in November, had 940 hp. If we include the Ki-44 Shoki, which had it first flight in 1940, already had a 1,500 hp engine. If we include engines still under development, the Kasei, which was under development in 1938, developed 1,530 horsepower. Later versions would develop over 1,800 hp. The Homare engine started development in 1940, with 1,650 hp. It would eventually produce more 1,990.

By the way, in 1945, Japan produced the Ha-70 engine, which produced 3,400 horsepower.

In 1945, Japan's best fighter was stlll the A6M
Ha, no. Fighters that were produced by 1945 that were better than the A6M included, but were no limited to:



You may notice that all of these aircraft, like the later versions of the A6M zero, actually included armor, self-sealing fuel tanks, and bulletproof glass.

Japan could never win the war, but that was because they couldn't produce even a fraction of the warplanes that the Allies could. It is NOT because they could not produce fighters that were competitive with what the US built, though--because they did. They just couldn't produce enough of them to matter.
 
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mcdo said:
Nope. The A6M2 model 11, which was already being produced in November, had 940 hp.
Fair enough. Still well below 2000.
mcdo said:
If we include the Ki-44 Shoki, which had it first flight in 1940, already had a 1,500 hp engine. If we include engines still under development, the Kasei, which was under development in 1938, developed 1,530 horsepower. Later versions would develop over 1,800 hp. The Homare engine started development in 1940, with 1,650 hp. It would eventually produce more 1,990.

By the way, in 1945, Japan produced the Ha-70 engine, which produced 3,400 horsepower.
And how many of any of those were actually produced? I'll accept correction, however. I confess, I wasn't aware of the Homare or Ha-70.

Ha, no. Fighters that were produced by 1945 that were better than the A6M included, but were no limited to:
mcdo said:

You may notice that all of these aircraft, like the later versions of the A6M zero, actually included armor, self-sealing fuel tanks, and bulletproof [glass].
Noted, & I stand corrected.
mcdo said:
in too small of numbers to matter.
Which is also a measure of the industry, IMO. Building prototypes or small batches is quite different from actual mass production.
 
No. I never said, suggested, or implied the Navy had any intention or was making any effort to curb the Army in any fashion.

Myself said:
[IJN] at the time, is no way under any threat for it's own survival. The Army needed the navy afterall to deliver supplies and protect merchant shipping. Manchuria produced a lot, but not everything. The notion that the Army would just 'strip out the navy' is fairly ASB, since the army relied on the navy fairly considerably.

Nonsense. This is exactly the situation that pertained OTL in 1941. Look what happened.:rolleyes:


Then pray tell, what is the point you are trying to make about the IJN acting, if it is not 'for their own survival', since I obviously am missing your implied point?

How does this fit into the context of the scenario proposed?
 
I agree with most of what you wrote, but this paragraph is full of so many errors that I just couldn't let it be.


Nope. The A6M2 model 11, which was already being produced in November, had 940 hp. If we include the Ki-44 Shoki, which had it first flight in 1940, already had a 1,500 hp engine. If we include engines still under development, the Kasei, which was under development in 1938, developed 1,530 horsepower. Later versions would develop over 1,800 hp. The Homare engine started development in 1940, with 1,650 hp. It would eventually produce more 1,990.

By the way, in 1945, Japan produced the Ha-70 engine, which produced 3,400 horsepower.


Ha, no. Fighters that were produced by 1945 that were better than the A6M included, but were no limited to:


You may notice that all of these aircraft, like the later versions of the A6M zero, actually included armor, self-sealing fuel tanks, and bulletproof class.

Japan could never win the war, but that was because they couldn't produce even a fraction of the warplanes that the Allies could. It is NOT because they could not produce fighters that were competitive with what the US built, those--because they did. Only, in too small of numbers to matter.


My favorite Japanese plane is the J2M Raiden and that in the later models has a 1,820 hp Kasei 23a engine.
 
Which is why I said "Japan simply did not have the engineering capacity to match even the SU, let alone the U.S. or Britain." Japan's best a/c engine in 1940 was a 780hp radial. By 1945, it was just over 1000hp. In 1940, the best in the U.S. was 2000hp, & by 1945, it was over 3500. In 1940, Japan's best fighter was the A6M, which had an insufficiently strong airframe, because Japan couldn't produce better aluminum. In 1940, the best U.S. fighter was the P-40, which was slightly slower, heavier, better armed, & better protected. In 1945, Japan's best fighter was stlll the A6M. In 1945, the best U.S. fighter was (arguably) the F4U, which was heavier, better armed, better armored, faster, & fitted with an engine of such power Japan could not produce; it was also produced in such numbers there were more built in three months than Japan built in a year.

Tell me again how Japan's industry was comparable.

In short, by 1940, Japan was about at her full stretch, while the U.S. & Britain (&, to a lesser extent, SU) were still well short of their maximum.

.:eek:)


There's also the Ki-100 and J2M Raiden, which both best the A6M.

On another point do you really think the Soviet Union can take Japan in engineering and in an overall air war?

I'm not that convinced especially if it’s a war in 1939-40.

The Soviet Unions best fighter in 1939 is arguably the I-16. Its performance and the whole Soviet air forces performance versus the Japanese at Khalkhin Gol weren’t exactly great. In the initial attack on the Soviet air base at Tamsak-Bulak by the Japanese air force attacked with “one hundred and thirty planes caught the newly arrived Soviet squadrons on the ground. Estimated 25 Soviet planes destroyed on the ground and nearly 100 more shot down as they tried to take off an give combat.” The 1-16 lost 88 planes in aerial combat against Japanese planes, mostly K-27’s. Overall the Soviet air force at the Battle of Khalkhin Gol lost 196 fighters to the Japanese 97.

The Soviet air force also had a very poor performance in the Winter War with Finland. Where Brewster Buffalo’s bested everything the Soviet’s had. In the first seven months of Operation Barbarossa they also did not perform well, over 35,000 Soviet aircraft were lost in the first seven months!

In 1944-45 it gets tricky the Soviet’s have some pretty good fighters like the La-7 and Yak 9, but the Japanese still had the Ki-100 and J2M Raiden which would be a good match for them.

The Japanese overall air production wasn’t as good as the Soviets, but they still managed to make 74,000 planes during the war.

Source

A long shadow by Stuart Goldman
 
Genmotty said:
Then pray tell, what is the point you are trying to make about the IJN acting, if it is not 'for their own survival', since I obviously am missing your implied point?

How does this fit into the context of the scenario proposed?
It demonstrates the OP is ignoring the Navy. And the probability this scenario expands to a much wider war even earlier than OTL.

hasdrubal barca said:
Soviet Unions best fighter in 1939 is arguably the I-16. Its performance and the whole Soviet air forces performance versus the Japanese at Khalkhin Gol weren’t exactly great.
I-16 was almost a generation older than A6Ms, too. Red Airforce learned. And Japan's aviation industry was vulnerable to Sov bombers almost from Day One, while the Sov industry is untouchable. Not a good sign for Japan.
hasdrubal barca said:
In 1944-45 it gets tricky the Soviet’s have some pretty good fighters like the La-7 and Yak 9, but the Japanese still had the Ki-100 and J2M Raiden which would be a good match for them.
I'd expect the Sovs to accelerate development of better fighters if IJA was getting stronger.

Also, Japanese aircrew training was never going to keep up with losses. The Sovs could.
 
There's also the Ki-100 and J2M Raiden, which both best the A6M.

The Ki-100 is really just a Ki-61 with a different engine, and I did mention that. The Raiden was an impressive plane, but it's a purpose-built interceptor. I was naming fighters.

Both good designs, though.
 
It demonstrates the OP is ignoring the Navy. And the probability this scenario expands to a much wider war even earlier than OTL.

Sure. For China to be 'overrun', it is almost the pre-requisite is that the IJN essentially never is a major player; expending a large stock of Imperial Japans strategic oil reserve in pointless naval patrol, that they do not create as much inter-service rivalry, and that for all intensive purposes take a back seat to army leadership in China, rather than acting unilaterally on various unsupported expeditions/incidents etc.

In the context of our times (OTL), the Imperial Japanese Navy didn't act until it was too late, which I think is precedent enough to suggest that it is plausible enough that the navy might decide to/end up take(ing) a fully backseat role.

If the scenario is to be plausible, we have to make other serious changes to Imperial Japans preparations for war in China that go back as far as the Invasion of Manchuria, these arguably could reinforce a 'backseat navy' under certain circumstances, or could 'inflate the issue' under others.

Since the entire premise is 'a bit of a wank' I believe that we are justified in the sake of argument to 'wank away' the circumstances that would detriment from the premise...assuming the premise/thread scenario is to be 'a given', and rather us asking the question what are the most plausible requirements to construct that scenario. AHC, if you will.



I am less sure on an 'expanded war, earlier'. Like I make my points previous, I believe we need a rather serious change of foreign policies in the gap between Mukden and Marco Polo, even if these events still occur in the scenario time line (STL). Which makes it difficult to say with any great confidence what would happen...

...other than that we still have to 'stack the deck' in Imperial Japans favour for them to overrun China and 'win' here. That means #ahem# ignoring #ahem# certain aspects like the OP does.
 
Genmotty said:
Sure. For China to be 'overrun', it is almost the pre-requisite is that the IJN essentially never is a major player; expending a large stock of Imperial Japans strategic oil reserve in pointless naval patrol, that they do not create as much inter-service rivalry, and that for all intensive purposes take a back seat to army leadership in China, rather than acting unilaterally on various unsupported expeditions/incidents etc.
All of which strikes me as even more improbable than defeating the Chinese.:rolleyes:
Genmotty said:
I am less sure on an 'expanded war, earlier'. Like I make my points previous, I believe we need a rather serious change of foreign policies in the gap between Mukden and Marco Polo
Absent radical changes in IJA-IJN relations, or IJN leadership, so IJN sees no need to strike south, it makes no difference. As soon as that happens (& to achieve victory over Chiang AIUI it's necessary to sever the supply routes in, so it'll be sooner, not later, than OTL), there's invasion of IndoChina, embargo, & war with Britain & Holland (& probably the U.S., too--tho not certainly).
Genmotty said:
That means #ahem# ignoring #ahem# certain aspects like the OP does.
It does appear to.:rolleyes:
 
The Ki-100 is really just a Ki-61 with a different engine, and I did mention that. The Raiden was an impressive plane, but it's a purpose-built interceptor. I was naming fighters.

Both good designs, though.


Thanks

i think i'm a little out of my field, when talking about planes :D
 
I am less sure on an 'expanded war, earlier'. Like I make my points previous, I believe we need a rather serious change of foreign policies in the gap between Mukden and Marco Polo, even if these events still occur in the scenario time line (STL). Which makes it difficult to say with any great confidence what would happen...

...other than that we still have to 'stack the deck' in Imperial Japans favour for them to overrun China and 'win' here. That means #ahem# ignoring #ahem# certain aspects like the OP does.


Check back in a day or two. I am constructing an ATL from Mukden to Macro Polo that you can play around with.
 
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The Ki-100 is really just a Ki-61 with a different engine, and I did mention that. The Raiden was an impressive plane, but it's a purpose-built interceptor. I was naming fighters.

Both good designs, though.

I found another plane of interest, the Kyushu J7W1 Shiden. This plane had a 2130hp engine.
 
Questions?

Two questions for everyone

1. What is better to equip a fighter plane with cannons or machine guns? Is there any reason a certain plane can't use one or the other? I know the American P-51 used four machine guns and that the Japanese J2M3 Raiden used four 20mm cannons.

2. Could Japan just copy German technology in the long run to modernize their airforce. I know they were using the J8M1 Shusui, which is basically just a copy of the German Me 163.
 
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