WI Japan defeats the USSR at the battles of Lake Khasan and Khalkin Gol?

[ObssesedNuker]

Guess the Soviets used magic to extract and export the oil then

Uh, what part of "the oil was not even discovered yet" do you not understand? The Sakhalin oil fields were not discovered until 1976. The first extractors didn't start up for another 20 years, which was after the Soviet Union fell.

At this time, the overwhelming bulk of Soviet oil came from the Caucasus, with other sources established in Western Siberia and Central Asia.

 

[Nae'Blis]

Actually a big loss, Japan throwing their dwindling supply of oil away in a meatgrinder against superior Soviet forces whilst the Commonwealth and quite possibly the Americans devastate the Japanese fleet means that the Allied powers can focus all their resources on Germany by the end of 1942.

Not going to happen.

The British government will be quite happy to let the Japanese kill communists to their hearts content. Keeping them busy will secure the Far East wonderfully. As to the US, Roosevelt could not get Congress to accept an attack upon Germany for invading France so I doubt he could get Congress to support invading Japan over Siberia. The US might finally manage to enter the war sometime in early 1942 (although probably with a far more serious anti-war movement), but attacking Japan strikes me as very unlikely indeed. The US never even declared war upon Finland, despite that being a harmless DoW, Japan actually has a serious navy and all around the ability to cause a hassle.


Now of course in the long run Japan has the same problem it did OTL with US oil sanctions, they won't be able to get enough from the Dutch and the British to keep things going (although I would be interested if anyone could come up with any statistics for how much they did receive from these occupied territories, was it really all that much more than the colonials were willing to part with?). So therefore many of the reasons prompting Pearl Harbour and the Southern Strategy would remain in place I would think, even if Japan went north (presumably under the impression that Hitler would have steamrolled to the Urals by Christmas).

 

[Uruk]

Uh, what part of "the oil was not even discovered yet" do you not understand? The Sakhalin oil fields were not discovered until 1976. The first extractors didn't start up for another 20 years, which was after the Soviet Union fell.

At this time, the overwhelming bulk of Soviet oil came from the Caucasus, with other sources established in Western Siberia and Central Asia.

Clearly you are too busy sprouting nonsense to even doing a quick google search so here you are:

http://www.oilru.com/or/15/176/

 

[The Red]

Not going to happen.

The British government will be quite happy to let the Japanese kill communists to their hearts content.

In the wake of Barbarossa the British and the Soviets are now allies, they will declare war on every Axis nation that attacks the Soviet Union as they did in OTL.

 

[kclcmdr]

If Soviet General Zhukov was purged or not assigned to the Far East Frontier and a by-the-book uninspired Soviet General took over and thought only of using their huge infantry divisions against Imperial Japan in wave-like formations like in Finland initially.....

Maybe Imperial Japan can make mince-meat of the attempted Soviet Full-force blunt assaults .... maybe.

 

[The Red]

If Soviet General Zhukov was purged or not assigned to the Far East Frontier and a by-the-book uninspired Soviet General took over and thought only of using their huge infantry divisions against Imperial Japan in wave-like formations like in Finland initially.....

Zhukov was only part of the battle, Shtern was in overall command.

 

[Saphroneth]

Clearly you are too busy sprouting nonsense to even doing a quick google search so here you are:

http://www.oilru.com/or/15/176/

The Japanese retained the Sakhalin concession even after World War II had broken out. It was only as late as on March 30, 1944 that a protocol on the return of the Northern Sakhalin oil and coal concession to the Soviet Union was signed. In compensation for the property takeover the USSR undertook to pay Japan five million rubles and, after the war, to supply to that country 50,000 tons of oil a year on common commercial terms over the period of five years. During the war, Sakhalin oil had practically no effect on Japan's military-strategic capability.

Clearly a large, important and productive field. /sarcasm
So let's restate.
Almost all of the oil in Sakhalin, and all the oil in the fantastically productive present fields there, was not discovered until the 1970s. Clearly, if the Japanese had possession of half the oil fields there and it was anything like a sufficient quantity, they'd not have needed to launch the Southern Advance.

 

[cpip]

Clearly you are too busy sprouting nonsense to even doing a quick google search so here you are:

http://www.oilru.com/or/15/176/

The Sakhalin oil fields that were reachable with 1930s technology were the on-land fields, which are much, much less usable than the offshore fields (which are the current boom). The rather large offshore fields were simply unreachable (which is what's leading to confusion here). (See
http://nautilus.org/network/associates/richard-tanter/sakhalin-gas-dream-or-nightmare-part-1/#axzz2zpBQKrj7 and http://www.spe.org/twa/print/archives/2009/2009v5n3/06TWAv5n3_YPGuide.pdf .)

The supplies on land peaked in 1934 and were in significant decline by 1938. Even at its peak, however, it was producing 240,000 tons annually -- and by 1936 Japan was importing 3,400,000 tons annually.

Sakhalin was a quite literal drop in the bucket; even assuming that the Japanese could double the POL output of the Sakhalin fields (a chancy proposition at best) it still leaves Japan in dire and desperate need of imports to keep the war machine going.

EDIT: Ah, Saphroneth typed faster than I did.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Clearly you are too busy sprouting nonsense to even doing a quick google search so here you are:

http://www.oilru.com/or/15/176/

I think others have already pointed out how you are, in fact, the one spouting nonsense...

 

[Urban fox]

Uh, what part of "the oil was not even discovered yet" do you not understand? The Sakhalin oil fields were not discovered until 1976. The first extractors didn't start up for another 20 years, which was after the Soviet Union fell.

At this time, the overwhelming bulk of Soviet oil came from the Caucasus, with other sources established in Western Siberia and Central Asia.

You doubt the mighty powers of Comrade Stalin's magical mustache?! Thats a double death sentance & 9999 years in the camps you anti-Soviet Nazi-Fascist-Trotskyite-White Guardist-Imperialist Agent!

Seriously the IJA would get ripped to shreds, unless the Red Army simply refuses to even try fighting back.

 

[The Red]

You doubt the mighty powers of Comrade Stalin's magical mustache?! Thats a double death sentance & 9999 years in the camps you anti-Soviet Nazi-Fascist-Trotskyite-White Guardist-Imperialist Agent!

I'm making a note of how you forgot Zinoviev,

And you were doing so well...

 

[Nae'Blis]

In the wake of Barbarossa the British and the Soviets are now allies, they will declare war on every Axis nation that attacks the Soviet Union as they did in OTL.

I sincerely doubt that Britain would go to war with Japan in 1941 to help out Stalin. There is a world of difference between declaring war on Finland (which cannot do a thing) to risking the east indies. Britain cannot afford to fight Japan. It is about as ridiculous as Stalin declaring war on Japan over the Japanese attack on the British.

 

[Uruk]

The Japanese retained the Sakhalin concession even after World War II had broken out. It was only as late as on March 30, 1944 that a protocol on the return of the Northern Sakhalin oil and coal concession to the Soviet Union was signed. In compensation for the property takeover the USSR undertook to pay Japan five million rubles and, after the war, to supply to that country 50,000 tons of oil a year on common commercial terms over the period of five years. During the war, Sakhalin oil had practically no effect on Japan's military-strategic capability.

Clearly a large, important and productive field. /sarcasm
So let's restate.
Almost all of the oil in Sakhalin, and all the oil in the fantastically productive present fields there, was not discovered until the 1970s. Clearly, if the Japanese had possession of half the oil fields there and it was anything like a sufficient quantity, they'd not have needed to launch the Southern Advance.

In 1932, the Soviet company produced 188,889 tons, and the Japanese concessionaires, 185,435 tons.

So 360,000 tons from fields that arent discovered until 50 years later arent too bad.

 

[Saphroneth]

In 1932, the Soviet company produced 188,889 tons, and the Japanese concessionaires, 185,435 tons.

So 360,000 tons from fields that arent discovered until 50 years later arent too bad.

You completely missed what someone said about onshore-offshore fields, and how the site YOU LINKED says the Japanese were using that concession (onshore) field until 1944, AND that it didn't produce enough to be at all valuable.

In other words, they were ALREADY producing as much as they could from th onshore oil fields, AND the Japanese didn't get enough to be any real influence on their strategy.

In 1943, the nadir of USSR oil production, they were producing 18 million barrels. As such, the ballpark figure of what they were getting (360,000 barrels) was in total 2% of USSR production, 1.6% or so of UK production, and less than a tenth of a percent of US production.
Given that Gazprom, when talking about the present oil fields there, says first oil was 1999... then it strongly suggests that the 1940s oil was insignificant enough that oil companies today all but forget about it.

Japan was getting less oil from those fields than the DEI were producing in 1938... by a factor of FORTY.
180,000 versus 7,340,000 tons.
If they'd captured the other half of the field, their total oil supply from it would be 5% of what they'd gain by taking the DEI. Does THIS explain why we were using words like "insignificant"?

 

[Saphroneth]

http://ww2-weapons.com/History/Production/strategic-raw-materials.htm
Source. DEI is 2.7% of world production, and world production is 272 million tons. Therefore, 180,000 tons is a blip on the world scale. 0.06% of world production.
And since "The Sakhlin oil fields" which are referred to nowadays for having such a large oil reserves are the offshore ones which weren't discovered until the 1970s, then it seems obvious what people actually meant.

Oh, I'm sure it was a lot by the standards of the Japanese oil supply problem. (Somewhat.) But trying to run a war - a mechanized war - with that much oil per year, when german consumption of oil was over 500,000 tons per month?
Losing proposition.

 

[The Red]

I sincerely doubt that Britain would go to war with Japan in 1941 to help out Stalin.

Not to help Stalin, to help themselves, seeing as the only reason anyone can give for Japan invading Siberia being 'it would help Germany' it's rather absurd to believe that the British would content themselves that this wouldn't help Germany at all.

There is a world of difference between declaring war on Finland (which cannot do a thing) to risking the east indies.

With what troops are the Japanese attacking Indonesia?

It is about as ridiculous as Stalin declaring war on Japan over the Japanese attack on the British.

The Soviet role was to defeat Germany, with the vast majority of the German Army always being focused against them. When Germany was finally defeated, the Soviet Union did attack the Japanese.

 

[Uruk]

http://ww2-weapons.com/History/Production/strategic-raw-materials.htm
Source. DEI is 2.7% of world production, and world production is 272 million tons. Therefore, 180,000 tons is a blip on the world scale. 0.06% of world production.
And since "The Sakhlin oil fields" which are referred to nowadays for having such a large oil reserves are the offshore ones which weren't discovered until the 1970s, then it seems obvious what people actually meant.

Oh, I'm sure it was a lot by the standards of the Japanese oil supply problem. (Somewhat.) But trying to run a war - a mechanized war - with that much oil per year, when german consumption of oil was over 500,000 tons per month?
Losing proposition.

In a land war against the Soviets are you really claiming that they would need 2,5 million tons for the navy as OTL? The army used around 450,000 tons.

I cant read peoples mind only what they write such as Siberia is a wasteland like Sahara and no oil in Sakahlin oil before 1976.

As for losing proposition, sure but the Southern strategy didnt work out too well either

 

[Saphroneth]

In a land war against the Soviets are you really claiming that they would need 2,5 million tons for the navy as OTL? The army used around 450,000 tons.

I cant read peoples mind only what they write such as Siberia is a wasteland like Sahara and no oil in Sakahlin oil before 1976.

As for losing proposition, sure but the Southern strategy didnt work out too well either

Well, if they're going to walk through Siberia, they might get somewhere important in time for Sochi 2014...

 

[Nae'Blis]

Not to help Stalin, to help themselves, seeing as the only reason anyone can give for Japan invading Siberia being 'it would help Germany' it's rather absurd to believe that the British would content themselves that this wouldn't help Germany at all.



With what troops are the Japanese attacking Indonesia?



The Soviet role was to defeat Germany, with the vast majority of the German Army always being focused against them. When Germany was finally defeated, the Soviet Union did attack the Japanese.

Yes the Soviets attacked the Japanese, after Germany was defeated, Britain would not attack Japan for the precise same reason, peace with Japan and consequent security (probably including an agreement similar to what the Soviets and Japanese reached OTL allowing the British to redeploy far eastern forces) is what would happen. And as I noted earlier the US is not going to attack Japan to keep them from fighting the Soviets either.

As to what troops Japan can harass the Allies with, the Japanese navy can make short work of the Soviets and then it is free to wreak havoc. Now supply shortages would be a major concern, but that does not mean Churchill would be stupid enough to risk it, particularly as the US would not be in the war. They have nothing to gain from fighting Japan.

 

[The Red]

Yes the Soviets attacked the Japanese, after Germany was defeated, Britain would not attack Japan for the precise same reason, peace with Japan and consequent security

The British already knew that appeasement of Japan wasn't an option, hence July's OTL embargo. If the Japanese attack a British ally with the ambition of ensuring a German victory in Europe then they're going to everything possible to harass said effort.

As to what troops Japan can harass the Allies with, the Japanese navy can make short work of the Soviets and then it is free to wreak havoc.

With what oil are they wreaking havoc?