WI: Italy Got Everything They Wanted From Austria-Hungary?

[AltoRegnant]

OTL, the treaty of Saint Germaine that ended Austria-Hungary's involvement in ww1 infamously saw that Italy would only gain token lands ceded. this is, at least, in part because of the nature of the Austrian collapse and Serbia's conflicting desires over what would become Yugoslavia. but similarly, Woodrow Wilson was famously an advocate for self-determination (of white people and the Irish were negotiable) but say that WW sent a less hardline diplomat to meet his agenda, or prioritized the great power's claims over that of the maybe-rouge state that was also imposing imperial demands. point being, Italy gets south Tyrol, Slovenia, and the creation coast. what happens domestically? i see this as bad for the right-wing in Italy and especially fascism, but does that enable say socialist parties? extremists were rising in France and even britain otl, just of a different sort than Italian revanchism. Serbia

Hell, what happens in serbia? i don't imagine panslavic nationalism would be reduced in a meaningful capacity, but would a rump Yugoslavia be able to act on them at all? would it wind up similar to italy- a former entente power that ultimately went fascist due to feeling cheated?

 

[Evil Crusader]

For Italy, not too much changes. The Biennio Rosso is coming and will create a lot of problems; I suppose the liberal order may hold up better without the huge loss of face from the Treaty.

For Yugoslavia, as a country, it's pretty much a huge positive; the nation will be stabler with everybody chained to Serbian dominance, a stiffer French support and less need to defend against Italy (who will in turn be forced on the defensive).

 

[lukedalton]

For Italy, not too much changes. The Biennio Rosso is coming and will create a lot of problems; I suppose the liberal order may hold up better without the huge loss of face from the Treaty.

Well a liberal order that can hold up better due to the lack of loss of face and all the political drama regarding Versailles and Fiume mean that when the fascist try to March on Rome there is a much much higher possibility that they will be welcomed with hot lead...so the changes will be big
Regarding Yugoslavia, well in any case it will be Belgrade the one in the defensive as frankly they are never ever posed a serious military menace to Italy except in the fear of the first moment and not pursuing the claim of croats and slovenes will not make the central goverment very loved

 

[MusuMankata]

OTL, the treaty of Saint Germaine that ended Austria-Hungary's involvement in ww1 infamously saw that Italy would only gain token lands ceded. this is, at least, in part because of the nature of the Austrian collapse and Serbia's conflicting desires over what would become Yugoslavia. but similarly, Woodrow Wilson was famously an advocate for self-determination (of white people and the Irish were negotiable) but say that WW sent a less hardline diplomat to meet his agenda, or prioritized the great power's claims over that of the maybe-rouge state that was also imposing imperial demands. point being, Italy gets south Tyrol, Slovenia, and the creation coast. what happens domestically? i see this as bad for the right-wing in Italy and especially fascism, but does that enable say socialist parties? extremists were rising in France and even britain otl, just of a different sort than Italian revanchism. Serbia

Hell, what happens in serbia? i don't imagine panslavic nationalism would be reduced in a meaningful capacity, but would a rump Yugoslavia be able to act on them at all? would it wind up similar to italy- a former entente power that ultimately went fascist due to feeling cheated?

For Italy specifically, the Biennio Rosso is sorta inevitable, because the Italian economy by the end of WW1 was "banged-up", for a lack of better word, and veterans will likely still be mostly unemployed (though I'd imagine a smaller percentage, on the grounds there might be enough single veterans going around willing to transition to policework in the newly-conquered areas).

What changes is both the actual lenght of the Biennio Rosso, because it might very well become a Decennio Rosso, and the response going forward, because without a rhetoric involving Mutilated Victory and percieved Entente snubbing, there wouldn't be as much of a compelling cry calling disaffected veterans to get what their sacrifice was supposed to do. Yes, the March on Rome might very well happen as OTL (at the time, they didn't know Socialist and Communist groups weren't as cohesive and cunning as they looked, and the whole reason it was left to happen was fears of a Communist revolution), but anything past it wouldn't likely happen by virtue of lacking the massive support base the Fascist Party had IOTL at the beginning. It might become a regular party, though.

 

[lukedalton]

What changes is both the actual lenght of the Biennio Rosso, because it might very well become a Decennio Rosso, and the response going forward, because without a rhetoric involving Mutilated Victory and percieved Entente snubbing, there wouldn't be as much of a compelling cry calling disaffected veterans to get what their sacrifice was supposed to do. Yes, the March on Rome might very well happen as OTL (at the time, they didn't know Socialist and Communist groups weren't as cohesive and cunning as they looked, and the whole reason it was left to happen was fears of a Communist revolution), but anything past it wouldn't likely happen by virtue of lacking the massive support base the Fascist Party had IOTL at the beginning. It might become a regular party, though.

Naa the Biennio Rosso will end more or less in time, Giollitti politics had done the trick to stop any serious attempt to a revolution and there will still a great deal of fight between the socialist/communist group and the veterans due to ideological difference that honestly looked more as a continuation of the rivalry/disputes between industrial workers and agricultural one during the war

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

ISTM that this would be a poison banquet for Italy.

It would incorporate a lot of non-Italians into the country, creating large permanent dissident groups with foreign sponsors.

For one thing, Italy would never get all of Slovenia; Italy had no conceivable claim to the area east of the Julian Alps. Likewise, Italy could get Dalmatia, but not inland Croatia. And of course the northern 2/3 of Tyrol would be in Austria.

OTL, Italy ran roughshod over the Sudtirolers. This invites a question... In 1923-1945, Italy was a dictatorship which had no qualms about suppressing them, and after 1945, the issue was getting old and German nationalism was discredited. But what if the extra territory means Mussolini doesn't take over? Can democratic Italy in 1923-1930 ignore Sudtirol's complaints? And west Slovenia's? And Dalmatia's?

 

[AltoRegnant]

but not inland Croatia.

did they actually claim the inland? i thought most of their irredentism was based on the old venetian empire at this point

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

did they actually claim the inland?

No, and that was my point: by annexing Dalmatia, Italy takes in a disgruntled population and leaves that people's offended kindred outside, free to cause trouble inside.

 

[Evil Crusader]

OTL, Italy ran roughshod over the Sudtirolers. This invites a question... In 1923-1945, Italy was a dictatorship which had no qualms about suppressing them, and after 1945, the issue was getting old and German nationalism was discredited. But what if the extra territory means Mussolini doesn't take over? Can democratic Italy in 1923-1930 ignore Sudtirol's complaints? And west Slovenia's? And Dalmatia's?

While I agree with the rest (it's the reason why I think Italy will be the one on the defensive in the Balkans; they won't want MORE Slavs for a while, even if they hate/consider them inferior enough), I don't think that'll be a problem.
Such a feat galvanizes support for the liberal order, and may well make Italy a staunch defender of alt-Versailles and thus not a pariah even as it (poorly) wrestles with France and the UK.
Democratic in the 30s doesn't mean what it means today; repression of unwanted minorities will still be going strong, nobody will shed a tear for the Germans (except the Germans, but barring Anschluss, they can't do anything about South Tyrol), especially not when France is about to do something similar to her own newly reincorporated Germans in Alsace-Lorraine; they will also be less inclined to openly criticize Italianization of the Slavs, though they'll certainly prop up Yugoslavia, which probably means Italianization becomes one of the few things nobody opposes in ALT-Italian politics.

 

[Simreeve]

Such a feat galvanizes support for the liberal order, and may well make Italy a staunch defender of alt-Versailles and thus not a pariah even as it (poorly) wrestles with France and the UK.
Democratic in the 30s doesn't mean what it means today; repression of unwanted minorities will still be going strong, nobody will shed a tear for the Germans (except the Germans, but barring Anschluss, they can't do anything about South Tyrol), especially not when France is about to do something similar to her own newly reincorporated Germans in Alsace-Lorraine; they will also be less inclined to openly criticize Italianization of the Slavs, though they'll certainly prop up Yugoslavia, which probably means Italianization becomes one of the few things nobody opposes in ALT-Italian politics.

You mean "Re-Italianisation of the Dalmatians"...

 

[Noblesse Oblige]

did they actually claim the inland? i thought most of their irredentism was based on the old venetian empire at this point
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No, and that was my point: by annexing Dalmatia, Italy takes in a disgruntled population and leaves that people's offended kindred outside, free to cause trouble inside.

That plus the fact that Venice never claimed or owned Croatia proper (probably because such a move would put a target on its back vs. both the Hungarians and later on, the Ottomans.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

If Italy wanted more than "token lands" they should have pressed for more at the negotiating table before they joined the war. Even if Italy got everything the Treaty of London "promised" them it would have only amounted to some rural Croatian lands and control over Albania's foreign affairs (the Treaty of London didn't even promise them Fiume, which they took anyways iOTL). Woopdidoo.

Italy was in for a mutilated victory regardless of what exact territory it gained, because a handful of Italian-inhabited coastal towns and their underdeveloped Slavic hinterlands were never going to be worth two million dead or disabled Italian boys.