WI Italy does not sign the Pact of Steel?

[joho6411]

Question: 1) If Mussolini does not sign the Pact of Steel with Hitler and remains neutral like Franco did in WWII, what would Hitler's alliance be called since "Axis" won't make sense since it would only have Germany as a member. 2) If Hitler only gets Hungary, Romania, Finland, Bulgaria, and puppet Slovakia to join him what could/would the name of that alliance be called? Could they be called the Central Powers again? Would Hitler & company want to have that title? So basically with an Italy that does not join Hitler, what appropriate name would we then call OTL's "AXIS" power(s)? I look forward to your replies. Thank you, Joho

 

[BELFAST]

The Enemy works for me.

 

[PoeFacedKilla]

Axis powers still works, its a good name for an enemy

 

[Blackfox5]

Hitler often referred to the Reich and its designs in Europe as the "New Order" or "New Order in Europe" or some such. Regardless if Hitler's alliance with his satellites have an official name or not, "the New Order" or "Hitler's New Order" would be good shorthard for the Allies to use. The phrase was used extensively in Nazi propaganda and official communiques. The Tripartite Pact between Germany, Italy, and Japan even referred to it.

 

[oshron]

i'd say a good name would be German-Japanese or Japanese-German Alliance, since Germany and Japan would be the major players in this scenario (even with the inclusion of other powers like Hungary and so on). maybe a colloquial name for them by the allies would be "Jerry-Japs"? or "JJs" for short?

an interest side-effect of this would be if Mussolini survives following the end of the war (assuming an Allied victory) in much the same way that Franco did: Franco only got to stay in power because he was anti-communist, and would have been forcibly removed from power were he not aligned against the Soviets. thus, would fascist Italy maintain its colonial empire just because it would be aligned against the Soviet Union?

 

[aktarian]

an interest side-effect of this would be if Mussolini survives following the end of the war (assuming an Allied victory) in much the same way that Franco did: Franco only got to stay in power because he was anti-communist, and would have been forcibly removed from power were he not aligned against the Soviets. thus, would fascist Italy maintain its colonial empire just because it would be aligned against the Soviet Union?

That depends on how much of an Empire Italy has. Depending on POD and how war unfolds they probably keep Libya. It depends on whether there is Abysinian war but it's possible there is desire to unify Eritrea with Ethiopia and Italian with British Somaliland if there is strong anti-colonial movement in these lands.

Albania is tricky. Again, depending on POD and war Albania might get a strong boost from Yugoslav communists and there is anti-italian uprising. Then again, if there is cold war (likely) Wallies, specially British, would be interested to keep Albania away from communist bloc so Italy would get free hand to deal with them and keep Albania pro-western (as in Italian possesion).

EDIT: it also depends on how Italy acts during the war. If it's pro-German to a degree Spain was ("volunteer" forces, conduit for various strategic materials....) Wallies would be less likely to help Italy keep possesions if threatened. If they are neutral or even slightly pro-Wallied the would be more toleration and maybe even some aid)

 

[lukedalton]

an interest side-effect of this would be if Mussolini survives following the end of the war (assuming an Allied victory) in much the same way that Franco did: Franco only got to stay in power because he was anti-communist, and would have been forcibly removed from power were he not aligned against the Soviets. thus, would fascist Italy maintain its colonial empire just because it would be aligned against the Soviet Union?

Well regarding the italian colonial empire, it will survives in Libya and Eritrea because there were a great numbers of italians there; Libya in particulary was thinked as a settler colony so expect a great deal of change in the Middle-east.
The big problem will be Ethiopia who was in perpetual state of insurrection...against everybody and much less Somalia, but in this last case the usual politics of 'i don't mess with you and you don't mess with me' can ease any problem

 

[Urban fox]

Short term: Avoiding WW2 means Italy is better off.

Long term: Italy is screwed, facing many more years of corrupt & incompetent Fascist rule. Along with the massive costs of maintaining the colonial empire and Mussolini's delusion of Italy bring a great military power.

 

[aktarian]

Well regarding the italian colonial empire, it will survives in Libya and Eritrea because there were a great numbers of italians there; Libya in particulary was thinked as a settler colony so expect a great deal of change in the Middle-east.
The big problem will be Ethiopia who was in perpetual state of insurrection...against everybody and much less Somalia, but in this last case the usual politics of 'i don't mess with you and you don't mess with me' can ease any problem

Ethiopia could adopt a policy that Eritrea belongs to it and if British give their Somaliland independance Somalia is likely to adopt policy of unified Somalia. That means that they will support their stripe of anti-Italian groups and once Cold war kicks in Soviet could be persuaded to send aid, provided Somalia and Ethiopia make right moves.

 

[MSZ]

Short term: Avoiding WW2 means Italy is better off.

Long term: Italy is screwed, facing many more years of corrupt & incompetent Fascist rule. Along with the massive costs of maintaining the colonial empire and Mussolini's delusion of Italy bring a great military power.

OTOH, industrial power of north Italy combined with the oil and natural gas wealth of Libya could bring Italy to great power levels, if it doesn't suffocate from Dutch disease that it.

 

[Urban fox]

OTOH, industrial power of north Italy combined with the oil and natural gas wealth of Libya could bring Italy to great power levels, if it doesn't suffocate from Dutch disease that it.

Italy had become a major European nation OTL before WW1. It wont continue to maintain such a status under the dead hand of Fascism however.

Even before WW2 Mussolini had buggered Italy up. A couple of decades more of Fascism, and it'd be a stagnant creaky mess.

 

[Hörnla]

Well regarding the italian colonial empire, it will survives in Libya and Eritrea because there were a great numbers of italians there; Libya in particulary was thinked as a settler colony so expect a great deal of change in the Middle-east.

That would be funny: Mussolini's Italy as a strategic partner of Israel.

 

[lukedalton]

That would be funny: Mussolini's Italy as a strategic partner of Israel.

Realpolitick make a lot of strange bedfellow...and honestly without the Pact of Steel the racial law are gonna be throw out, they were a very big WTF in Italy as many fascist of the first hour were jew.

 

[joho6411]

Hitler often referred to the Reich and its designs in Europe as the "New Order" or "New Order in Europe" or some such. Regardless if Hitler's alliance with his satellites have an official name or not, "the New Order" or "Hitler's New Order" would be good shorthard for the Allies to use. The phrase was used extensively in Nazi propaganda and official communiques. The Tripartite Pact between Germany, Italy, and Japan even referred to it.

I thank you Blackfox, you have answered my question. I am planning a TL, really an extension of my current TL and I needed a name to describe the Allies' enemy in Europe. Thanks again, Joho

 

[joho6411]

OTOH, industrial power of north Italy combined with the oil and natural gas wealth of Libya could bring Italy to great power levels, if it doesn't suffocate from Dutch disease that it.

Ha ha ha! Someone seems to agree w/o realizing on what my plans are for my TL.

 

[joho6411]

That would be funny: Mussolini's Italy as a strategic partner of Israel.

Wait and see what I have planned for my TL Joho

 

[joho6411]

Realpolitick make a lot of strange bedfellow...and honestly without the Pact of Steel the racial law are gonna be throw out, they were a very big WTF in Italy as many fascist of the first hour were jew.

Wait & see what I have planned for my TL, when I get around to it! Joho

 

[MSZ]

Ha ha ha! Someone seems to agree w/o realizing on what my plans are for my TL.

You are not the only one with a TL with fascist Italy surviving longer thanks to oil sales revenue.

And it does make wonder what would be more corrupt: OTL democratic Italy with the Mafia and the rest of the organized crime syndicates, or a fascist Italy where the only "corrupt crime syndicate" is the state itself.

 

[Rich Rostrom]

Question: 1) If Mussolini does not sign the Pact of Steel with Hitler and remains neutral like Franco did in WWII, what would Hitler's alliance be called since "Axis" won't make sense since it would only have Germany as a member.

"Germany and its allies" when it's necessary.

Without a major ally "Germany" is sufficient. Consider that "British" was consistently used to describe forces of Britain, the Commonwealth, and the Empire - except when no British-British forces were involved.

Terminology like "BCE" (for British-Commonwealth-Empire) only began to appear since 2000, AFAICT.

 

[MattII]

So, Italy remaining neutral removes both the North African Front, and possibly also the short-lived but damaging (for the British) Greek Front, which maybe allows them to move more forces east, so maybe Singapore can hold out longer. Of course, no North African/Italian front maybe means their understanding of German armour is less comprehensive, which could mean they're less well prepared for retaking France. The Nazis now have more logistical support for their forces in Russian, though how much good this will do in the long-run is debatable.

Without the North African front, it's quite possible Italy finishes the Tripoli-Benghazi railroad, which will improve Libya somewhat, both in the short-term, and also potentially in the long-term. Post-war, it's potentially possible the railroad could be added to at both ends, allowing some overland trans-shipping between Egypt and Tunisia. Don't know enough about Italy's East African possessions to comment.