So, IOTL after the death of Baldwin IV it appears that the regency was given to Raymond III of Tripoli and care of the king's person to Joscelin III of Courtenay. Joscelin is out of the running here- he's no relation to *Fulk (as opposed to OTL where he was Baldwin V's great-uncle)- but I imagine Raymond is still a likely regent?
It's probable there's still a hawkish faction- with Sibylla and her husband (whether that's Guy or someone else, due to butterflies) potential figureheads- but Raymond has a better grip on power here, especially if he has a good relationship with the teenaged *Fulk II.
Would Maria Comnene still remarry here? Because Balian might then want some stake in his step-son's government (though Balian obviously worked with Raymond IOTL), and assorted Ibelin half-siblings might do well out of *Fulk's reign.
Of course, the absolute best case scenario for the stability of the kingdom is Baldwin IV eking out a few more years and leaving the throne to an already adult half-brother, but I'm not sure that's likely.
Well...this would be interesting. Not sure if it’ll prevent the destruction of the Kingdom of Jerusalem but perhaps (through the flapping of a butterflies wings) prevent its defeat at the hands of Saladin? Maybe relations between the Kommenid dynasty and the crusaders will be more friendly? Of course Manuel Kommenos will need to be more successful against the Turks in order to be a greater aid to them.
Though if things go as OTL the Komnenids would be deposed by the time *Fulk assumes the throne.
Well if Isabella is born as Fulk, Sibylla’s disastrous second wedding in the end will not matter at all (as Guy can be left powerless if Sibylla do not inherit the Crown) AND as the disaster of Hattin and the subsequent fall of Jerusalem were caused by Guy‘s decision to fight Saladin on open field, leaving Jerusalem practically undefended, against the better counsel of the men who were his personal enemies but here would be either the regents or the biggest councilors of young Fulk I will say who with a male Isabella Jerusalem’ s fall would be prevented and the Latin Kingdom of Jerusalem would survive more or less intact at least for some more years...
I imagine in the longer term it depends on what *Fulk's competence and personality are like- though having his upbringing overseen by uncle Baldwin and then Raymond bodes well.
Do we expect the truce with Saladin to hold through *Fulk's minority, despite the activities of agitators like Reynald of Chatillon? Or is it a matter of hostilities with Saladin still breaking out, but things going less disastrously for the Crusaders without Guy's inept leadership?
A delayed/averted Third Crusade also has interesting effects back in Europe- Barbarossa not drowning, Richard not bleeding England dry etc.
