WI: Instead of declaring war on France, Mussolini invades Greece in May 1940?

[Rufus]

So IOTL Mussolini declared war on France and Britain in June 1940, after it was obvious that France was finished. Then, a few months later, in October 1940, he started his disastrous invasion of Greece, which eventually led to British and German interventions.

But what if Mussolini decides to attack Greece earlier, while France and Britain are still fighting the Germans? At this point, the fact that Britain and France haven't declared war on the Soviets in response to the invasions of Poland and Finland makes it seem as if the Entente have no intention of expanding the war so long as they are still fighting Germany, even in the case of a clear aggressor like the Soviets.

So what if the Duce makes a different gamble: He decides to use the window of opportunity, and invades Greece in May 1940, in the middle of the German invasion of France, but does not decare war on either France or Britain (after all, he didn't really think Italy was ready for war with them yet). How would France, Britain and Germany react?

Would Britain and France declare war on Italy, or would they grumble, but not do much else (except maybe some material support for Greece), like they did in response to the Soviet invasion of eastern Poland and Finland?

If the Entente doesn't immediately declare war on Italy, will Britain do it later anyway, after the fall of France? Or will they hope to keep Italy neutral for the duration of the war with Germany, even if Greece has to be sacrificed? How would that impact the war?

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

Greece is thrown under the bus by the UK. It's in no position to offer any but moral support and doesn't need a war in the Mediterranean. The Germans also ignore it as no business of theirs and in June 1940 nobody cares what a beaten France thinks about it. It's not like trouble in the Balkans is exactly unusual.

 

[marathag]

Greece is thrown under the bus by the UK. It's in no position to offer any but moral support and doesn't need a war in the Mediterranean. The Germans also ignore it as no business of theirs and in June 1940 nobody cares what a beaten France thinks about it. It's not like trouble in the Balkans is exactly unusual.

With Italy still officially Neutral, there is a larger chance that France fights on from North Africa, if they don't hold on in southern France

 

[BlackDragon98]

With Italy still officially Neutral, there is a larger chance that France fights on from North Africa, if they don't hold on in southern France

Italian Libya is still full of Italian troops because they haven't attack Egypt ITTL.
France doesn't have many troops in North Africa.
In fact, Algeria and Morocco sent many colonial troops for the Western Front.

IMHO France would still surrender.
Italy might have a better time in Greece, though I doubt they will if they follow their OTL battleplan.
UK doesn't have anything left for the Greeks, especially after Dunkirk.

 

[marathag]

France doesn't have many troops in North Africa.

They were shifting most of the Airforce across the Med a week before they tossed in the Towel, and the Navy to a lesser degree.
With Italy staying neutral, holding out in North Africa seems more likely.
In May, 1940, most everyone still had respect for the Italian Army.
That dropped fast after the Moose actually did anything with it, but this TL, it's still Neutral, and the French Intelligence services were not completely worthless, and would have picked up on Italians massing in Albania.

 

[BlackDragon98]

They were shifting most of the Airforce across the Med a week before they tossed in the Towel, and the Navy to a lesser degree.
With Italy staying neutral, holding out in North Africa seems more likely.
In May, 1940, most everyone still had respect for the Italian Army.
That dropped fast after the Moose actually did anything with it, but this TL, it's still Neutral, and the French Intelligence services were not completely worthless, and would have picked up on Italians massing in Albania.

I know about the naval and aircraft shift, hence why there were so many ships when the RN attack Mers El Kabir.
What I meant by troops was ground forces, not naval or air.
There really weren't all that many French ground forces in Algeria and Morocco.

 

[thaddeus]

Italy entered the war when France had effectively been defeated, and as already mentioned they look more fearsome as a prospective enemy. why would it change the French calculation that the Italians have (yet) to declare war? we are into opinion, but it seems a frantic rush to North Africa might really invite Italy to join the war? also once the government leaves it would seem (at the time) difficult for them to ever return?

my view Yugoslavia would be the first target of Italy, so have little speculation on Greece, have seen mention of a capture of Crete, either as a prelude or discrete action, if Italy had captured it first it seems difficult for GB to intervene in Greece?

 

[GTStinger]

Love the idea. Italy’s invasion goes somewhat better because they will devote then forces they had supporting BoB and possibly transfer a few assets that were in Libya OTL. Assuming Dunkirk goes as the same, Germany and UK won’t get involved until after BoB.

Would the UK give non-combat support For the Greeks falling back to Crete?

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

Would the UK give non-combat support For the Greeks falling back to Crete?

In June and July 1940 with a neutral Italy Britain would be thinking of withdrawing some forces back to the UK, not risking getting drawn into a war in the Mediterranean. Greece is on its own. Remember the UK had won the fight in Northern Norway but because of the French disaster had to withdraw its forces back to Britain. With them having to have done that, they've got absolutely nothing with which to aid Greece in any way.

 

[Fearless Leader]

In June and July 1940 with a neutral Italy Britain would be thinking of withdrawing some forces back to the UK, not risking getting drawn into a war in the Mediterranean. Greece is on its own. Remember the UK had won the fight in Northern Norway but because of the French disaster had to withdraw its forces back to Britain. With them having to have done that, they've got absolutely nothing with which to aid Greece in any way.

I'm not so sure about that. There's a whole bunch of aircraft squadrons in the Eastern Mediterranean which aren't doing much of anything at that point. To have them twiddle their thumbs and await an Italian attack while completely abandoning Greece would do serious damage to their ongoing efforts in Romania and Turkey in May 1940. The RN would also be decidedly unhappy about losing what they saw as a key naval position in Suda Bay. They could even do it in a kind of sneaky way and not declare war on Italy. The RN merely arrives to "provide security" on Crete while the RAF sends the Gladiators which were given to the Egyptian air force to the RHAF instead plus some "volunteers." Finally there's also Churchill's obsession with redeeming his decision at Gallipoli to take into account and the fact that Metaxas isn't going to want another BEF right away for the same reason of not wanting to provoke the Germans which caused him to delay in OTL.

Speaking of the Germans, securing Romanian oil was THE major diplomatic aim in OTL. The Oil/Arms pact wasn't finalized until May 27, and they're going to look very unkindly to anything that theoretically threatens their newfound oilfields such as an RN/RAF base in Crete.

That being said, I don't think any of this matters. There's a good reason why Italy didn't move in the Balkans at that point: the British and French defeat seemed increasingly likely as May 1940 progressed and they were the major obstacles to Italian expansion. The point of Italy's DOW was to gain a seat at the peace table, not to seriously challenge Anglo-French domination of the Mediterranean. It should also be noted that Italy didn't think itself ready for the Invasion of Greece in OTL either. Pretty much everyone with a brain questioned the logistics of it but Mussolini pushed ahead because of the example of France and an erroneous belief that he could buy the Greek Army's loyalty. Let's say he goes ahead with it and the Greeks throw back the initial attack like they did in OTL right around the time that France capitulates. That's got to sting...perhaps enough to get him removed. Going this route is guaranteed to piss off both the pro-British and pro-French factions.

To rebut in advance the claim that by focusing on Greece, Italy would have done better, I don't buy it because

a)The extra Albanian port capacity wasn't there.
b) Italy has only 80 amphibious landing craft total only 5 of which are any good. Furthermore they have no plans to do anything with them in May 1940.
c)Italy still needs to send reinforcements to Africa just in case.

There's also a chance Churchill calls up Cunningham and tells him to dust off Lyster's plan for a pre-emptive strike on Taranto. It was designed precisely for a scenario like this one.