WI HRE Ferdinand I was sterile?

[Jan Olbracht]

Taking into account OTL size of his family, impact should be massive. Until 1526 not much change, but then? Is Ferdinand eventually seek for annulment of his marriage with Anna Jagiellon (risky, considering his struggle for Hungarian throne, pissing of her uncle Sigismund would not be the best idea during war against Janos Zapolya). What would Habsburgs do to discourage Sigismund the Old from supporting Zapolya (IOTL Ferdinand destined his oldest daughter to marry Sigismund's son from the moment of her birth to keep him on his side)? Is HRE Charles V more likely to remarry if his son Philip is the only male heir of vast Habsburg inheritance (Hard to imagine Philip holding everything from Hungary to Spain after death of his father and uncle)?

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Taking into account OTL size of his family, impact should be massive. Until 1526 not much change, but then? Is Ferdinand eventually seek for annulment of his marriage with Anna Jagiellon (risky, considering his struggle for Hungarian throne, pissing of her uncle Sigismund would not be the best idea during war against Janos Zapolya). What would Habsburgs do to discourage Sigismund the Old from supporting Zapolya (IOTL Ferdinand destined his oldest daughter to marry Sigismund's son from the moment of her birth to keep him on his side)? Is HRE Charles V more likely to remarry if his son Philip is the only male heir of vast Habsburg inheritance (Hard to imagine Philip holding everything from Hungary to Spain after death of his father and uncle)?

Would Felipe get Hungary and Bohemia though?

As to the remarriage question, I'd say Karl is likely to remarry, Felipe will remarry sooner after Maria Manuel's death, and likely Ferdinand remarried after Anna's death (just in case she WAS the problem).

As to an annulment, it would make Karl look very foolish for blocking Henry VIII's annulment from Katherine of Aragon but then trying to get one for his brother.

On the plus side, though, Sigismund's daughters have a few more ranking bridegrooms (Bavaria, Saxony, Italy) to choose from. Dorothea of Denmark likely ends up in Cleves (Karl V's only other niece available would be Maria of Viseu; or Karl will have to marry Anne of Cleves' sister Amalie), either causing the War of the Cleves Succession sooner (if Dottie doesn't have kids) or Dottie has kids. Kristina likely gets remarried off sooner (maybe as Sigismund II's first wife?)

Not sure who'd benefit most from the absence of Ferdinand's daughters in Italy. France only has second tier candidates in the Bourbon-Vendôme girls available once their supply of François' daughter, Margot, and Este nieces are exhausted, so maybe more Trans-Alpine matches between Italian houses and Bavaria, Baden, Lorraine etc.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Would Felipe get Hungary and Bohemia though?

As to the remarriage question, I'd say Karl is likely to remarry, Felipe will remarry sooner after Maria Manuel's death, and likely Ferdinand remarried after Anna's death (just in case she WAS the problem).

As to an annulment, it would make Karl look very foolish for blocking Henry VIII's annulment from Katherine of Aragon but then trying to get one for his brother.

On the plus side, though, Sigismund's daughters have a few more ranking bridegrooms (Bavaria, Saxony, Italy) to choose from. Dorothea of Denmark likely ends up in Cleves (Karl V's only other niece available would be Maria of Viseu; or Karl will have to marry Anne of Cleves' sister Amalie), either causing the War of the Cleves Succession sooner (if Dottie doesn't have kids) or Dottie has kids. Kristina likely gets remarried off sooner (maybe as Sigismund II's first wife?)

Not sure who'd benefit most from the absence of Ferdinand's daughters in Italy. France only has second tier candidates in the Bourbon-Vendôme girls available once their supply of François' daughter, Margot, and Este nieces are exhausted, so maybe more Trans-Alpine matches between Italian houses and Bavaria, Baden, Lorraine etc.

Logical option for Karl would be Isabella Jagiellon for second wife (thus his kids would have connection with previous rulers of Bohemia and Hungary AND would have claim to Milan too). For lack of Ferdinand's daughters, younger daughters of Sigismund the Old could serve as Habsburg's proxies, being sisters of Holy Roman Empress.

 

[Vitruvius]

I agree that Charles would remarry but wouldn't the timing make it difficult for him to wed Isabella Jagiellon? So maybe her sister Sophia? It would be interesting if Charles and John Zapolya were brother in laws. And would Sigismund II then end up with Charles' daughter Maria if her OTL husband Max doesn't exist here?

 

[Jan Olbracht]

I agree that Charles would remarry but wouldn't the timing make it difficult for him to wed Isabella Jagiellon? So maybe her sister Sophia? It would be interesting if Charles and John Zapolya were brother in laws. And would Sigismund II then end up with Charles' daughter Maria if her OTL husband Max doesn't exist here?

Habsburgs would do a lot to prevent Zapolya's match with Isabella, especially if there is no Habsburg princess available for Sigismund Augustus. Maybe Habsburg would suggest (just suggest) Isabella's match with Felipe to discurage Bona (Sigismund the Old never liked idea of Isabella's Hungarian marriage anyway) from letting her daughter to marry Zapolya?

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

ISTM there would be a distinct possibility of the Habsburg male line going extinct.

The Austrian branch was AFAICT entirely descended from Ferdinand, while the Spanish branch was descended from Charles through his only son Philip II, and Philip II's only surviving son Philip III. It wouldn't take much to cut off the Spanish branch (in the male line). The Spanish line had several heiresses, but the house name would be lost and they could not inherit the Habsburg lands in Germany.

So what dynasty would replace the Habsburgs as HR Emperors, and rulers of Austria etc.?

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

ISTM there would be a distinct possibility of the Habsburg male line going extinct.

difference being that Felipe II would likely marry either Margot de France (François I's daughter) or Jeanne d'Albret, rather than a double Portuguese marriage. Even if he still married Maria Manuela and things went as OTL, he wouldn't be waiting nearly a decade to remarry.

 

[Vitruvius]

Well, if Ferdinand is childless by the time Charles wife dies in 1539, Charles remarries. If he has a second son with his second wife that child probably inherits Austria and forms the Austrian branch ITTL. I think there's even the chance that Ferdinand still succeeds Charles as Emperor. Charles' younger son could always be adopted by Ferdinand and brought up in Prague to be his successor in the HRE.

And even if Charles doesn't have more sons Philip potentially could. I don't see this as being terminal for the Habsburg dynasty.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

And even if Charles doesn't have more sons Philip potentially could. I don't see this as being terminal for the Habsburg dynasty.

look at Philipp the Magnanimous- if he'd died in infancy, the house of Hesse would've been extinguished. Instead, he goes on an knocks out a few sons and the dynasty is secure until well after WW2. OTL Felipe fathered more boys (1 by wife no. 1, twins plus potentially the 1561 miscarriage that nearly killed Élisabeth de Valois was male, and then four more by wife no. 4) than girls (only four), the boys just had the misfortune to not survive infancy for pretty butterfliable reasons (typhoid/diphtheria, smallpox/measles and prem*).

As one wag pointed out OTL when there were fears expressed about the "frailty" of the French succession during Louis XV's minority, "Noah started out with only three sons, Adam and Eve with two".

*Infante Diego was born three months ahead of schedule because his mom went into labour on hearing the news of the death of her elder son