WI: How Can These Monarchies Survive?

[JonasResende]

I'm putting this thread here, since while it was the 20th century that saw the fall of most modern monarchies (Portugal, Germany, Austria-Hungary, Turkey, China, Italy, Ethiopia, Romania, etc), some of them (like, but not only Russia) would've needed an earlier POD for the monarchy to remain. They don't necessarily have to last until 2018 (if they can it would be awesome), but they need to last at least longer (at least 5 years) than they did.

In fact, since the "save the Russian monarchy" is something I've seen regurgitated so many times, let's remove any Russian reforms from discussion. France is another one, which is even more fraught, since there are three possible monarchs at any one time. So, lets exclude Russia and France for the sake of discussion, please.

So, how can (major) monarchies that fell during the 19th-20th centuriy, last. I'm particularly interested in some of the less commonly discussed monarchies - like Portugal, Turkey, Egypt, Iran, China or Ethiopia.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Turkey can survive if they don't enter WWI. Ethiopia if they repel the communists. Romania, if they do not enter WWII. Italy is easy, let the people think that they should keep having a king.

 

[Lalli]

Germany: WW1 is avoided, CPs win WW1 or Entente wins the war earlier so there is not revolution.
Ottomans: OE wins WW1 or stays out from whole war. It has still much challenges but surviving is easier.
China: Keep Cixi away from power and allow some reforms.
Italy: Vittorio Emanuel III abdicates on 1943 for favor of Umberto II and monarchy can survive from refenrendum if such even ever be.
Iran: Allow Mossadegh commit some reforms.
Brazil: Let someone Pedro II's son survive to adulthood and he might be more intrested about keep monarchy around.
Laos: Keep commies away from Vietnam. Even better if you can avoid victory of Communists on Chinese Civil War.
Nepal: No massacre of royal family in 2001 in royal palace and Nepal might be able transfer to constitutional monarchy.

 

[Kaze]

Italy - Two possibilities:
1. do not involve yourself in World War One - stay neutral.
2. Mussolini must be dealt with - a few subsets here:
a. he is killed in his coup attempt
b. an *unfortunate accident* before the Berlin-Rome Axis,
c. Mussolini neutral in world War Two - he becomes defacto King of Italy with dynasty.

 

[Wendell]

No or smaller World War I helps virtually all of these.

 

[althisfan]

I don't agree with the often mentioned- have Germany (or Ottomans, or CP in general) win WWI and boom, the monarchy survives. History shows this often doesn't save monarchies, see- France after the ARW. Germany and A-H lost WWI from within. Even with a CP "win" the monarchies, especially A-H are going to fall.

 

[althisfan]

Italy - Two possibilities:
1. do not involve yourself in World War One - stay neutral.
2. Mussolini must be dealt with - a few subsets here:
a. he is killed in his coup attempt
b. an *unfortunate accident* before the Berlin-Rome Axis,
c. Mussolini neutral in world War Two - he becomes defacto King of Italy with dynasty.

You know that Italy was still a monarchy during Mussolini's reign, right?

 

[GauchoBadger]

Iran: Allow Mossadegh commit some reforms.

Depends on what kind of reforms.
If the scenario is just Operation Ajax failing and Mossadegh then keeping his OTL policies, then i'm afraid that the Iranian monarchy will actually be in a worse situation, especially if Mossadegh finds out that the shah was conspiring against him.

 

[Herman Gigglethorpe]

You know that Italy was still a monarchy during Mussolini's reign, right?

If I'm not mistaken, the reason Italians voted to abolish the monarchy was because the king was a puppet of Mussolini.

 

[A Most Sovereign Lady]

To save the Chinese Empire you need to destroy the Qing Dynasty. Confused yet? Eventually, for good or for ill, revolts and revolutions will become more and more frequent as they're abused more and more by external powers, which eventually means "Welp, they lost the Mandate. RISE UP" will happen with ever increasing intensity.

tldr: Get rid of the Manchurians.

 

[Wendell]

I don't agree with the often mentioned- have Germany (or Ottomans, or CP in general) win WWI and boom, the monarchy survives. History shows this often doesn't save monarchies, see- France after the ARW. Germany and A-H lost WWI from within. Even with a CP "win" the monarchies, especially A-H are going to fall.

World War I was an unprecedented event.

 

[althisfan]

World War I was an unprecedented event.

Really? Because it wasn't all that different from the multiple world wars that preceded it, such as the 7 Years War and the Napoleonic Wars

 

[althisfan]

If I'm not mistaken, the reason Italians voted to abolish the monarchy was because the king was a puppet of Mussolini.

The Italians abolished the monarchy because the election was rigged. Italy from Rome and all to the south had a majority voted to keep the monarchy, as did the islands of Sicily and Sardinia. And at the time of the vote, it wasn't the king who was with Mussolini, he had abdicated in favor of his son, who ended up being king for about 40 days.

 

[Wendell]

Really? Because it wasn't all that different from the multiple world wars that preceded it, such as the 7 Years War and the Napoleonic Wars

In some ways it was. New technology, industrialization, increased living standards, literacy, and lifespan set this one apart though.

 

[Lalli]

I don't agree with the often mentioned- have Germany (or Ottomans, or CP in general) win WWI and boom, the monarchy survives. History shows this often doesn't save monarchies, see- France after the ARW. Germany and A-H lost WWI from within. Even with a CP "win" the monarchies, especially A-H are going to fall.

Agree that AH was pretty much doomed and even CP victory would probably bring only some years more. But OE has good chances survive if not to this day at least some decades longer. It had its problems but not anything what it couldn't deal. And even in OTL Ottoman monarchy was abolished only few years after WW1.

And German monarchy pretty surely would survive. Germany during WW1 and France in 1789 were pretty different. One of most important thing was that Germany would had been economically and socially in better condition. And Kaiser even wasn't such absolute ruler than Louis XVI.

 

[avernite]

Agree that AH was pretty much doomed and even CP victory would probably bring only some years more. But OE has good chances survive if not to this day at least some decades longer. It had its problems but not anything what it couldn't deal. And even in OTL Ottoman monarchy was abolished only few years after WW1.

And German monarchy pretty surely would survive. Germany during WW1 and France in 1789 were pretty different. One of most important thing was that Germany would had been economically and socially in better condition. And Kaiser even wasn't such absolute ruler than Louis XVI.

I would think a less horrible collapse of the Habsburgs could also lead to partial survival - a Habsburg Austria-Czechia which has lost Hungary and Galicia should still be a partial win by my count.

 

[drasonz]

I would think a less horrible collapse of the Habsburgs could also lead to partial survival - a Habsburg Austria-Czechia which has lost Hungary and Galicia should still be a partial win by my count.

Provided they are not annexed by the German Empire, hungary might have a habsburg king.

 

[Avrorrange]

Germany: WW1 is avoided, CPs win WW1 or Entente wins the war earlier so there is not revolution.
Ottomans: OE wins WW1 or stays out from whole war. It has still much challenges but surviving is easier.
China: Keep Cixi away from power and allow some reforms.
Italy: Vittorio Emanuel III abdicates on 1943 for favor of Umberto II and monarchy can survive from refenrendum if such even ever be.
Iran: Allow Mossadegh commit some reforms.
Brazil: Let someone Pedro II's son survive to adulthood and he might be more intrested about keep monarchy around.
Laos: Keep commies away from Vietnam. Even better if you can avoid victory of Communists on Chinese Civil War.
Nepal: No massacre of royal family in 2001 in royal palace and Nepal might be able transfer to constitutional monarchy.

It’s more complicated than that. Guangxu’s reforms were utterly unrealistic and demanded too much changes in way too short a time.Reforms later conducted by Cixi herself were way more practical.

 

[althisfan]

Agree that AH was pretty much doomed and even CP victory would probably bring only some years more. But OE has good chances survive if not to this day at least some decades longer. It had its problems but not anything what it couldn't deal. And even in OTL Ottoman monarchy was abolished only few years after WW1.

And German monarchy pretty surely would survive. Germany during WW1 and France in 1789 were pretty different. One of most important thing was that Germany would had been economically and socially in better condition. And Kaiser even wasn't such absolute ruler than Louis XVI.

Even though the Ottomans were Muslim and the Sultan claimed the title of Caliph, I don't see Arabs being any more likely to support being in a Turkish Empire than in OTL being in a Jewish State. The Hashemites will still exist in the Hejaz, having control of the holy cities, and have a better genealogical claim to the title than the non-Arab Turks. If the fanatical fundamentalist extremist family Saud still comes to power in the Nejd, they will definitely do all the can to free the Arab lands to their north.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Even though the Ottomans were Muslim and the Sultan claimed the title of Caliph, I don't see Arabs being any more likely to support being in a Turkish Empire than in OTL being in a Jewish State. The Hashemites will still exist in the Hejaz, having control of the holy cities, and have a better genealogical claim to the title than the non-Arab Turks. If the fanatical fundamentalist extremist family Saud still comes to power in the Nejd, they will definitely do all the can to free the Arab lands to their north.

Without the War, the triumvirate of the Pashas was in danger. Likely to he deposed by rival Pashas. No WWI means better control over Arab provinces with or without Enver Pasha. The Arabs followed the British Army from behind in Palestine.

Anyway, no chance the Arabs will hate it as much as Israel as Arabs are not cut off from the world like with Gaza. Except for the Christians and Alawites the Arabs will remain somewhat okay.