WI Hitler goes through with the initial invasion plans for Czechslovakia

[Eurofed]

I think ethnic cleansing is too strong in that, as you say, germany doenst seem THAT bad yet (but still bad - remember the USA had almost declared economic war on the regime after Crystalnacht (or however its spelt..

If war starts at Munich, however, Krystalnacht has not yet happened and is butterflied away. By then, the worst Hitler has done on the humanitarian side is to shoot or imprison a bunch of political opponents, and establish legal discrimination of Jews, and nobody in the 30s is going to deem Germany a pariah nation for that.

I'd think a forced referendum in Austria, under the control of the allies - which given that a lot of Austrians didnt like the rather contrived joining,

A referendum is quite possible, but I strongly object to the statement that a lot of Austrians opposed the Anschluss. Democratic Austria had expressed its willingness to join Germany in 1918 and in 1931. What the Austrian government said or did did after 1934 about the issue doesn't matter to adjudicate the will of the Austrian people, it was a clericofascist dictatorship whose stake into power was predicated on keeping Austria a separate nation.

and that Germany has just led them into a war they lost, may very well decide to go back to the separate state.

They can blame the Nazi for that, which had quite the homegrown following in Austria, not their fellow Germans. Germany and Austria already lost a war together, yet Austria wanted to join Germany in 1918. I remain confident that the Anschluss option would win in a free and fair referendum.

As for the Sudetenland; I dont see the allies forcing out the German population in the way the Germans did to the Czechs (unless theye did that in the time they were there, in which case it would be considered tit-for-tat).

You are thinking of the wrong Slav country: after conquest, Germany did extensive ethnic cleansing in Western Poland, not Czechia, which got a relatively mild treatment, for an occupied Slav country, apart from the usual Nazi brutal answer to resistance. I don't think things would change ITTL.

However a 'vo,untary' move of Germans would be quite likley (at this period in time, moving of populations like this wasnt seen as terrible, just unfortunate).

Well, that's right. Forced population transfers were seen as a regrettable last-ditch way to settle nationalist disputes back then. It is entirely possible, but not certain, that the Entente look the other way as the Czechs bully and harass the Sudetenland Germans into leaving. That would win Germany some sympathy back, however.

The allies wont want germany too weak, though, as they will still have an eye on Russia. But a Germany, say, roughly as strong as France, with some limitations (like dismantling the West Wall) would probably be considered reasonably safe, as it would be way weaker than France, CZ and the UK (at a minimum). And that sort of force level wouldnt seem to bad to Germany; they would be strong enough to defend themselves.

That's quite correct.

Whether Poland gets Danzig is probably going to up to how helpfull Poland was

True as well.

 

[alephh]

Costly invasion shakes Hitler's confidence?

Considering how strong the Czech defense-fortifications were -- even Hitler was amazed about that after gaining control of the area -- Wehrmacht would have suffered heavy damages during the campaign.

Hitler's confidence would have been pretty badly shaken: If Wehrmacht cannot even march over Czechslovakia, how could he go on with the plans to attack Poland, France or the Soviet Union?

 

[MRig]

If the plotters take Hitler out before the war starts, they will probably be able to make a decent relationship with Czechslovakia, because they are not interested in pan-German nationalism. The question moves to Poland. I can see two basic options:

1. Poland and Germany split Danzig, with the Germans getting the bulk of the city itself, or
2. The junta's conservative irredentism overreaches, and Germany and Poland have greatly increased tensions, possibly even war.

 

[Whanztastic]

I'm a little curious about what will happen to Mussolini in a world without Hitler.

 

[Snake Featherston]

In this case the Germans are facing a Red Army that by comparison to them is rather stronger in technology, though not in leadership (depending on how far the purges get in this scenario) along with Britain, France, and Czechoslovakia with an army still much weaker than it was in 1939, attacking into the most mountainous and well-protected part of Czechoslovakia.

My guess is the Allies win a war about 1940 and the ATL has alternate history novels about "What if the Munich Conference had succeeded."

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Let's not forget that something like a third of Germany's tanks in 1939 and as many as twenty infantry divisions were equipped with the spoils from the occupation of Czechoslovakia.

Take that away and you have less than fifty German divisions plus three weak armored divisions, one of them no more than a brigade, to take down the Czechs, hold off the French and watch for the Soviets and the Poles.

 

[Snake Featherston]

Let's not forget that something like a third of Germany's tanks in 1939 and as many as twenty infantry divisions were equipped with the spoils from the occupation of Czechoslovakia.

Take that away and you have less than fifty German divisions plus three weak armored divisions, one of them no more than a brigade, to take down the Czechs, hold off the French and watch for the Soviets and the Poles.

Which of course is a tall order given that in 1938 all that Soviet equipment that was destroyed IOTL is not quite as obsolete as it was in 1941. However as Britain and France aren't quite re-armed enough it'd primarily be a Soviet-Czech-Polish (possibly) curbstomp of the Nazis.

The postwar consequences would be....interesting.

 

[stevep]

Guys

While I agree with Grimm about much of HT's work and especially the historical [in]validity - God's he's not fighting another WWII equivalent is he? I don't know if brokenman suggestion is totally out of the question. As stated elsewhere in the thread the Poles wanted and grabbed a bit of Czechoslovakia OTL and they at the time had a non-aggression pact with Germany, for all the good it did with them a year later. If the Soviets had tried coming through Poland to help the Czechs I suspect that at least some of the Poles would fight them.

Steve

A possible German-Polish Alliance against the Soviets.

Read HT's newest work, The_War_That_Came_Early.

It lingers on what if Hitler invades Czechoslovakia, a year earlier than the OTL WW2.

Nah, Hitler would not ally with Poland, Poland would not ally with Hitler.

brokenman, Turtledove's fiction is not considered to be historically valid.

Not worth reading in recent years either.

 

[Eurofed]

If the Soviets had tried coming through Poland to help the Czechs I am sure that the Poles would fight them.

Steve

Here, I corrected it for you.

 

[Mr Qwerty]

I'm a little curious about what will happen to Mussolini in a world without Hitler.

Dies of old age in 1961. The resulting power struggle leads (messily) to a restored republic, involving among other things Soviet-supported rebellions in Ethiopia. Just a thought; I'm no expert.

 

[Cook]

The resulting power struggle leads (messily) to a restored republic

That would be the establishment of a republic rather than a restored republic wouldn’t it?

Italy was a Monarchy from unification until 1946.

 

[Snake Featherston]

Here, I corrected it for you.

Actually they were going to go through Romania, so the point is moot.

 

[Cook]

Actually they were going to go through Romania, so the point is moot.

Given the Romanian concerns with Soviet territorial ambitions they’d have had a very hard time getting permission to do so.

 

[Mr Qwerty]

That would be the establishment of a republic rather than a restored republic wouldn’t it?

Italy was a Monarchy from unification until 1946.

Yes, you're right, it was a constitutional monarchy. I was half asleep and thinking about the UK, which it could be argued is a de facto republic.

 

[NothingNow]

Take that away and you have less than fifty German divisions plus three weak armored divisions, one of them no more than a brigade, to take down the Czechs, hold off the French and watch for the Soviets and the Poles.

Not to mention the fact that for the vital first few days of the Operation, they have the choice of either letting the Luftwaffe get utterly pwned by the weather, or let the Army take on the Czechoslovaks completely without support. The Soviets take East Prussia in a manner of days, maybe weeks at best, assuming the Poles didn't get involved. If they did, Germany is Fucked, as is Franco.

 

[Snake Featherston]

Given the Romanian concerns with Soviet territorial ambitions they’d have had a very hard time getting permission to do so.

I remember having read that once Soviet archives were opened it turned out that in 1938 Romania had chosen to allow Soviet troops to be sent by rail against Germany. The USSR would have sent 2-3 Fronts for the task. Which in this specific timetable would put them at their best shot during the Purges against the Nazis.

 

[Hörnla]

referendum is quite possible, but I strongly object to the statement that a lot of Austrians opposed the Anschluss. Democratic Austria had expressed its willingness to join Germany in 1918 and in 1931. What the Austrian government said or did did after 1934 about the issue doesn't matter to adjudicate the will of the Austrian people, it was a clericofascist dictatorship whose stake into power was predicated on keeping Austria a separate nation.

Ironically, a fair unrigged referndum under the circumstances of a monarchical or republican Germany would have probably wrought even more positive votes than in the case of a NS-Germany.

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Concerning Czech tanks. It is true that they made up a third of the German tanks in 1940. I would like to add that it was not the worst third!

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I would like to give to protocol that I plead for a possibly rather successful defensive of the Czech Republic in 1938. The war would start in October, so weather conditions might soon deteriorate. Neither the Air Force nor the Armoured Forces, not even the Ground Forces are yet in the condition of late 1939 or spring 1940. Hitler's grip on the Wehrmacht, even if there is no coup, is still loose that there is a high probability that a larger fraction of the army will be held in reserve on the French, but probably also on the long Polish border.
Having said that, Germany might just stun the world as it did in 1939/40. But the odds are not in a way that this would happen automatically.

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Ethnic cleansing after a German defeat would IMHO hardly be realistic in 1939. Without the massive breaking of taboos by the Nazis, it wouldn't be a mean to be used in Central Europe. The situation might be different if there were a Czech minority in Germany to be exchanged with; thus there is a higher chance to see a population exchange of "Volksdeutsche" from Poland getting into Westpreussen whereas Polish have to leave the corridor in case of an arrangement there.

 

[BlairWitch749]

The German's get utterly rolled

Now their air situation wouldn't be that bad, but their ground army was a shell in 1939. The Czechs had heavily fortified their border and had hundreds of tanks that where better than the overwhelming majority of Germany's tanks. The Germans are also short on heavy artillery that is needed to storm forts like those found on the sudenten lines. It wouldn't go forward anyway... Beck was itching to eliminate Hitler, and his control over the army was nothing like what he built up in 1941... ensue military Junta... whats cool about that scenario is that Manstein becomes deputy chief of the OKH

 

[Hörnla]

whats cool about that scenario is that Manstein becomes deputy chief of the OKH

Though....what would he get to become famous for? The short German-Polish border war, somewhen in the early 40s?

 

[1940LaSalle]

Within a day of giving the order for invasion, Hitler is overthrown by the military coup that had been extensively prepared by anti-Nazi elements of the officer corps for this contingency, and did not go off IOTL because Chamberlain gave its acceptance of Hitler's requests a day or so too soon. The Nazi regime is overthrown by a Valkyrie junta before war can even start, Germany and the Western powers a bit later come to a similar resolution as OTL of the Sudetenland issue when the new German government formuates its sensible irredentist claims in a much more reasonable language, most likely with a request for a plebiscite in the Sudetenland area under international supervision.

The new government leaves rump Czechoslovakia alone, and slows down the pace of rearmament to remedy Nazi harmful overspending. The Western powers are pleased, detente with Germany ensues, and they are quite willing to appease German claims on Poland. Munich II sees Danzig and the Corridor returned to Germany with an extraterritorial zone in and land corridor to Gdynia. The Kaiserreich is restored in Germany. WWII as we know it never occurs. Whether a WWII occurs or not (as opposed to a limited Anglo-Japanese or Soviet-Japanese war), it depends on whether Stalin ever feels overconfident and/or paranoid enough to attack Europe when the modernization and expansion of the Red Army is done in the early-mid-1940s. If he does not, this kind of TL occurs, only with no Phony War, a different settlment in Poland and a different leadership in Germany. If he does, this kind of anti-Soviet WWII occurs. In both cases, the damage wrought by Nazism is optimally prevented with minimal damage to Germany and Europe.

This speaks to Europe, and seems entirely plausible to me. On the other hand, none of this has any real impact upon the steadily worsening relations between the US and Japan. Indeed, beginning as far back as 1897 (yes, pre-Hawaii annexation), the US formulated a series of documents known as War Plan Orange, outlining plans of action in the event of a war against Japan. Moreover, as the '20s and '30s passed, it became something of an article of faith in the US Navy in particular and most particularly on the west coast (see, for example, the consummate Navy town of San Diego) that it was only a matter of time, and not much at that, until there was a day of reckoning between the US and Japan. Thus, I maintain that there would likely have been a war between Japan and the English-speaking allies (US, Great Britain, Australia, New Zealand, Canada), likely beginning very roughly when it did in OTL.